Crawley Town vs Gillingham – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Gillingham at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this Crawley Town vs Gillingham fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Crawley Town host Gillingham at The Broadfield Stadium in League Two, Regular Season - 21. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 26 December 2026 at 15:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Crawley Town — All Games: 2W 4D 4L from 10 League Two outings this season, averaging 1.00 points per game. Last five: D L W L D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Crawley Town have played only a handful of League Two games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Crawley Town have posted 1W 5D 4L at The Broadfield Stadium — 0.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Across all League Two games this season, Gillingham have recorded 2W 4D 4L from 10 outings — 1.00 PPG. Last five: W L D D D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Gillingham have played only a handful of League Two games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Gillingham's away record: 1W 4D 5L from 10 road trips in League Two this season (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.00 PPG (Crawley Town) versus 1.00 (Gillingham). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 6 previous meetings, Crawley Town have won 2, Gillingham 2, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The last 6 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.7 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 28 Mar 2026, ended 2–0 with Crawley Town winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.7 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Crawley Town in-play and half-time data (50 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
Gillingham in-play and half-time data (50 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 48% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Crawley Town 46% versus Gillingham 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Crawley Town 42% | Gillingham 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Crawley Town 0.91 xG and Gillingham 1.01 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Crawley Town attack 0.683 / defence 1.083 | Gillingham attack 0.844 / defence 0.949. League average goals — home 1.403 / away 1.109. Crawley Town's attack strength of 0.683 is below the league average — the 0.91 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 50 Crawley Town games / 50 Gillingham games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Crawley Town 30% | Draw 34% | Gillingham 36%. Fair-value odds: Crawley Town 3.33 | Draw 2.94 | Gillingham 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 30% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 1.92. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 70% probability — total xG of 1.92 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Gillingham are the pick at 36% — marginal model lean. With a 34% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Gillingham offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 1.92 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 30% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 1.7 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 39% on No. Form rates corroborate: Crawley Town 30% | Gillingham 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Crawley Town vs Gillingham | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: The Broadfield Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 26 Dec 2026, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Crawley Town 30% | Draw 34% | Gillingham 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 30% | BTTS 39% | xG Crawley Town 0.91 / Gillingham 1.01 • Poisson strength factors: Crawley Town attack 0.683 / def 1.083 | Gillingham attack 0.844 / def 0.949 | league avg home 1.403 / away 1.109 • Poisson stance: Gillingham (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.91
Crawley Town xG
Expected Goals
1.01
Gillingham xG
39%
BTTS
59%
Over 1.5
30%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Crawley Town vs Gillingham kick off?
Crawley Town vs Gillingham is scheduled to kick off at 15:00 on Saturday 26 December 2026 at The Broadfield Stadium.
Where is Crawley Town vs Gillingham being played?
The match is being played at The Broadfield Stadium.
What competition is Crawley Town vs Gillingham part of?
Crawley Town vs Gillingham is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Crawley Town vs Gillingham?
Our statistical model gives Crawley Town a 30% chance of winning, Gillingham a 36% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Gillingham the favourite.
Will both teams score in Crawley Town vs Gillingham?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Crawley Town and Gillingham will score (BTTS).
Will Crawley Town vs Gillingham have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 30%.
What is the head-to-head record between Crawley Town and Gillingham?
Record (6 meetings): Crawley Town 2W | Draws 2 | Gillingham 2W.
What form are Crawley Town and Gillingham in?
Crawley Town (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-L-W-L-D. Gillingham (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-L-D-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Crawley Town's attacking strength (0.68x league average) is weighed against Gillingham's defensive record (0.95x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.91. The same calculation in reverse, Gillingham's attack versus Crawley Town's defence, projects 1.01 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 50/50 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 16.4%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.2%), 0-1 (13.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 45% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Gillingham Win
30%
3.33
34%
2.91
36%
2.81
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.8%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.6%
Draw
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.91
Crawley Town xG
Total xG
1.92
1.01
Gillingham xG
3.33
30%
Home win
2.91
34%
Draw
2.81
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
57%
Over 1.5
1.75
43%
Under 1.5
2.33
30%
Over 2.5
3.33
70%
Under 2.5
1.43
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.53
61%
BTTS No
1.65
Clean Sheet
36%
2.76
40%
2.48
Win to Nil
11%
9.19
14%
6.97
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.6 | 14.8 | 7.5 | 2.5 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.3 | 13.5 | 6.8 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.0 | 6.1 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Crawley Town vs Gillingham?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.4%.
How many goals are Crawley Town and Gillingham expected to score?
The model projects 0.91 expected goals for Crawley Town and 1.01 for Gillingham, a combined total of 1.92.
How confident is the prediction model for Crawley Town vs Gillingham?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 50 outings, Crawley Town have picked up 0.88 PPG on a 9W 17D 24L record — D-L-W-L-D across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Crawley Town, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Gillingham's form line: 13W 17D 20L from 50 games, 1.12 PPG, last five W-L-D-D-D. It's still early in the season for Gillingham, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Crawley Town on 0.88 PPG, Gillingham on 1.12. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Crawley Town have posted 1.00 PPG from 25 outings (5W 10D 10L).
On the road, Gillingham have gone 5W 9D 11L from 25 away games — 0.96 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Crawley Town are averaging 0.94 goals scored and 1.46 conceded per game recently; Gillingham are on 1.10 scored and 1.54 conceded.
Last 50 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Crawley Town
Early Season
Gillingham
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Crawley Town and Gillingham in coming into this match?
Crawley Town have gone 9W 17D 24L in their last 50 games (0.88 PPG), while Gillingham have gone 13W 17D 20L in their last 50 (1.12 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Crawley Town at home or Gillingham away?
Crawley Town's home record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Crawley Town at home: 1.00 PPG; Gillingham away: 0.96 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Crawley Town and Gillingham runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in League Two. They last met on 28 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Crawley Town's record when hosting Gillingham specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Crawley Town
2
Draws
2
Gillingham
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Crawley Town and Gillingham?
From 6 meetings on record, Crawley Town have won 2, Gillingham have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Crawley Town and Gillingham last play each other?
They last met on 28 March 2026, when Crawley Town 2-0 Gillingham.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Crawley Town see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches.
Gillingham see a goal before the break in 48% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Crawley Town 52%, Gillingham 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 36% (Crawley Town) and 40% (Gillingham).
On the defensive side: Crawley Town have failed to score in 32% of games; Gillingham in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Crawley Town home games / Gillingham away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Crawley Town play Gillingham?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Crawley Town's recent matches and 44% of Gillingham's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Crawley Town vs Gillingham usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 36% of Crawley Town's recent games and 40% of Gillingham's, pointing to a tighter contest.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.