Crawley Town 2-4 Crewe – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Crawley Town at 50%, yet other data sources diverge — this Crawley Town vs Crewe fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A League Two encounter, Regular Season - 14 sees Crewe travel to Broadfield Stadium to take on Crawley Town. The game is scheduled for Saturday 21 October 2023, 15:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all League Two games this season, Crawley Town have gone 5W 1D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.60 PPG return. Last five: W W W L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.90 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Crawley Town, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Crawley Town's home record at Broadfield Stadium: 6W 2D 2L from 10 League Two appearances (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Crewe stand at 5W 3D 2L from 10 League Two matches — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W D W L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Crewe, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Crewe have gone 1W 4D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Crawley Town 1.60 PPG, Crewe 1.80 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Crawley Town, 1 for Crewe and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 11 Feb 2023, ended 2–2 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Crawley Town in-play tendencies (58 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Crewe in-play tendencies (58 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Crawley Town 52% versus Crewe 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Crawley Town 52% | Crewe 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Crawley Town 1.91 xG and Crewe 1.39 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Crawley Town attack 1.004 / defence 0.903 | Crewe attack 1.208 / defence 1.220. League average goals — home 1.559 / away 1.273. Crewe bring a strong defensive rating of 1.220 — this is suppressing Crawley Town's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Crewe have an above-average attack strength of 1.208 — the away xG of 1.39 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 58 Crawley Town games / 59 Crewe games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Crawley Town 50% | Draw 23% | Crewe 28%. Fair-value odds: Crawley Town 2.00 | Draw 4.35 | Crewe 3.57. Crawley Town hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.30. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.30 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (1.91 / 1.39) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Crawley Town as the most likely outcome at 50% — moderate model lean. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Crawley Town offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.30 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 64% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 64%. Form rates are neutral: Crawley Town 40% | Crewe 60%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Crawley Town vs Crewe | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Broadfield Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 21 Oct 2023, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Crawley Town 50% | Draw 23% | Crewe 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% | BTTS 64% | xG Crawley Town 1.91 / Crewe 1.39 • Poisson strength factors: Crawley Town attack 1.004 / def 0.903 | Crewe attack 1.208 / def 1.220 | league avg home 1.559 / away 1.273 • Poisson stance: Crawley Town (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.91
Crawley Town xG
Expected Goals
1.39
Crewe xG
64%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
42%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Crawley Town vs Crewe kick off?
Crawley Town vs Crewe kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 21 October 2023 at Broadfield Stadium.
What was the final score in Crawley Town vs Crewe?
Crawley Town 2 - 4 Crewe.
Where is Crawley Town vs Crewe being played?
The match is being played at Broadfield Stadium.
What competition is Crawley Town vs Crewe part of?
Crawley Town vs Crewe is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Crawley Town vs Crewe?
Our statistical model gives Crawley Town a 50% chance of winning, Crewe a 28% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Crawley Town the favourite.
Will both teams score in Crawley Town vs Crewe?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both Crawley Town and Crewe will score (BTTS).
Will Crawley Town vs Crewe have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%.
What is the head-to-head record between Crawley Town and Crewe?
Record (2 meetings): Crawley Town 0W | Draws 1 | Crewe 1W.
What form are Crawley Town and Crewe in?
Crawley Town (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.90 | L5 W-W-W-L-L. Crewe (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-D-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Crawley Town's attack at 1.00x the league average against Crewe's defence at 1.22x — combine the two and it projects 1.91 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Crewe's attack versus Crawley Town's defence, projects 1.39 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 58/59 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 1-2 (6.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Crawley Town Win
50%
2.02
23%
4.43
28%
3.59
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.8%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
1 – 0
7.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.91
Crawley Town xG
Total xG
3.30
1.39
Crewe xG
2.02
50%
Home win
4.43
23%
Draw
3.59
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
42%
Over 3.5
2.38
58%
Under 3.5
1.72
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.56
36%
BTTS No
2.78
Clean Sheet
25%
4.01
15%
6.75
Win to Nil
12%
8.09
4%
24.22
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.7 | 5.1 | 3.6 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.1 | 9.8 | 6.8 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 9.4 | 6.5 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.3 | 6.0 | 4.1 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.0 | 2.8 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Crawley Town vs Crewe?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.1%.
How many goals are Crawley Town and Crewe expected to score?
The model projects 1.91 expected goals for Crawley Town and 1.39 for Crewe, a combined total of 3.30.
How confident is the prediction model for Crawley Town vs Crewe?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Crawley Town come into this having played 58 games, going 17W 15D 26L for 1.14 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-L-L. The sample for Crawley Town is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Crewe sit at 1.34 PPG from 58 outings (19W 21D 18L), a run that reads W-D-W-L-W across their last five. The sample for Crewe is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Crawley Town on 1.14 PPG, Crewe on 1.34. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Crawley Town's home form reads 14W 7D 7L across 28 games on their own ground, a 1.75 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.14 PPG overall — Crawley Town are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Crewe have taken 0.79 points per game from 28 outings (3W 13D 12L). That's a step down from their 1.34 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Crewe's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Crawley Town come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Crawley Town are averaging 1.17 goals scored and 1.57 conceded per game recently; Crewe are on 1.31 scored and 1.38 conceded.
Last 58 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Crawley Town
Blended
Crewe
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Crawley Town and Crewe in coming into this match?
Crawley Town have gone 17W 15D 26L in their last 58 games (1.14 PPG), while Crewe have gone 19W 21D 18L in their last 58 (1.34 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Crawley Town at home or Crewe away?
Crawley Town's home record (1.75 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Crawley Town at home: 1.75 PPG; Crewe away: 0.79 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Crawley Town and Crewe runs to 7 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in League Two. They last met on 7 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Crewe have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Crawley Town's record when hosting Crewe specifically: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 7 Meetings
1
Crawley Town
1
Draws
5
Crewe
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Crawley Town and Crewe?
From 7 meetings on record, Crawley Town have won 1, Crewe have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Crawley Town and Crewe last play each other?
They last met on 7 February 2026, when Crawley Town 0-1 Crewe.
Who has won more matches between Crawley Town and Crewe?
Crewe have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Crawley Town are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Crewe are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 29% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Crawley Town 54%, Crewe 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Crawley Town) and 46% (Crewe).
On the defensive side: Crawley Town keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Crawley Town have failed to score in 29% of games; Crewe in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Crawley Town home games / Crewe away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Crawley Town play Crewe?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Crawley Town's recent matches and 46% of Crewe's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Crawley Town vs Crewe usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Crawley Town's recent games and 46% of Crewe's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Crawley Town and Crewe tend to score early?
Crawley Town have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Crewe in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Crewe cruise to a comfortable 2-4 victory over Crawley Town.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Crewe beat Crawley Town 2-4 at Broadfield Stadium, Regular Season - 14, in the League Two. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Crawley Town 1.91 xG and Crewe 1.39 xG, a combined 3.30. The scoreboard read 2-4 for 6 actual goals. Crewe outscored their 1.39 projection by 2.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Crawley Town attack 1.00 / defence 0.90 against Crewe attack 1.21 / defence 1.22, drawn from 58/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Crawley Town 50% | Draw 23% | Crewe 28%, with Crawley Town to win its most likely call at 50%. The actual Crewe win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 42% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Crawley Town 52%, Crewe 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Crawley Town's trading profile (58 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Crewe's trading profile (58 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Crawley Town 1.14 PPG, Crewe 1.34 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Crewe win broke the near-deadlock. Crawley Town (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.14 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Crewe (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 0.96 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.