Crawley Town 2-1 Bradford – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Crawley Town at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Crawley Town vs Bradford fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Crawley Town host Bradford at The People's Pension Stadium in League Two, Regular Season - 9. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 25 September 2021 at 15:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Crawley Town — All Games: 3W 2D 3L from 8 League Two outings this season, averaging 1.38 points per game. Last five: D L W W D. They are averaging 1.25 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 8 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Crawley Town, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Crawley Town at The People's Pension Stadium this season: 2W 2D 0L from 4 home games — 2.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 75% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.38 — Crawley Town are significantly better at The People's Pension Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Across all League Two games this season, Bradford have recorded 3W 3D 2L from 8 outings — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W L D L D. Their scoring rate of 1.38 per game is modest, conceding 1.12 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 8 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 62% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Bradford, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Bradford's away record: 1W 1D 2L from 4 road trips in League Two this season (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.75 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 25% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Crawley Town 1.38 PPG, Bradford 1.50 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
In-Play Profile
Crawley Town in-play tendencies (8 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Bradford in-play tendencies (8 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 25% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Crawley Town 50% versus Bradford 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Crawley Town 50% | Bradford 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Crawley Town 1.27 xG and Bradford 0.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Crawley Town attack 1.126 / defence 1.151 | Bradford attack 0.779 / defence 1.170. League average goals — home 0.961 / away 1.085. Data: 8 Crawley Town games / 8 Bradford games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Crawley Town 41% | Draw 32% | Bradford 27%. Fair-value odds: Crawley Town 2.44 | Draw 3.12 | Bradford 3.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.24. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.24 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Crawley Town are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Crawley Town offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.24 combined xG gives a 39% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 46% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Crawley Town 75% | Bradford 25%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Crawley Town vs Bradford | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: The People's Pension Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 25 Sep 2021, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Crawley Town 41% | Draw 32% | Bradford 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 46% | xG Crawley Town 1.27 / Bradford 0.97 • Poisson strength factors: Crawley Town attack 1.126 / def 1.151 | Bradford attack 0.779 / def 1.170 | league avg home 0.961 / away 1.085 • Poisson stance: Crawley Town (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.27
Crawley Town xG
Expected Goals
0.97
Bradford xG
46%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Crawley Town vs Bradford kick off?
Crawley Town vs Bradford kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 25 September 2021 at The People's Pension Stadium.
What was the final score in Crawley Town vs Bradford?
Crawley Town 2 - 1 Bradford.
Where is Crawley Town vs Bradford being played?
The match is being played at The People's Pension Stadium.
What competition is Crawley Town vs Bradford part of?
Crawley Town vs Bradford is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Crawley Town vs Bradford?
Our statistical model gives Crawley Town a 41% chance of winning, Bradford a 27% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Crawley Town the favourite.
Will both teams score in Crawley Town vs Bradford?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Crawley Town and Bradford will score (BTTS).
Will Crawley Town vs Bradford have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Crawley Town and Bradford?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Crawley Town and Bradford in?
Crawley Town (all comps): 3W-2D-3L in 8 | 1.38 PPG | GF 1.25 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-L-W-W-D. Bradford (all comps): 3W-3D-2L in 8 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.38 / GA 1.12 | L5 W-L-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Crawley Town's attack rating (1.13) and Bradford's defence rating (1.17), the model arrives at 1.27 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Bradford's attack versus Crawley Town's defence, projects 0.97 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 8/8 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.4%), 1-0 (11.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Crawley Town Win
41%
2.42
32%
3.13
27%
3.74
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
0 – 0
10.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.27
Crawley Town xG
Total xG
2.24
0.97
Bradford xG
2.42
41%
Home win
3.13
32%
Draw
3.74
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.15
54%
BTTS No
1.87
Clean Sheet
38%
2.65
28%
3.55
Win to Nil
16%
6.40
8%
13.27
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.7 | 10.4 | 5.0 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.5 | 13.1 | 6.4 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.5 | 8.3 | 4.0 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 3.5 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Crawley Town vs Bradford?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Crawley Town and Bradford expected to score?
The model projects 1.27 expected goals for Crawley Town and 0.97 for Bradford, a combined total of 2.24.
How confident is the prediction model for Crawley Town vs Bradford?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 8 outings, Crawley Town have picked up 1.38 PPG on a 3W 2D 3L record — D-L-W-W-D across the most recent five. The sample for Crawley Town is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Bradford's form line: 3W 3D 2L from 8 games, 1.50 PPG, last five W-L-D-L-D. The sample for Bradford is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Crawley Town on 1.38 PPG, Bradford on 1.50. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Crawley Town have posted 2.00 PPG from 4 outings (2W 2D 0L). That's noticeably better than their 1.38 PPG overall — Crawley Town are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Bradford have gone 1W 1D 2L from 4 away games — 1.00 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.50 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Bradford's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Crawley Town come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Crawley Town are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Bradford are on 1.38 scored and 1.12 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Bradford in 62%.
Last 8 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Crawley Town
Blended
Bradford
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Crawley Town and Bradford in coming into this match?
Crawley Town have gone 3W 2D 3L in their last 8 games (1.38 PPG), while Bradford have gone 3W 3D 2L in their last 8 (1.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Crawley Town at home or Bradford away?
Crawley Town's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Crawley Town at home: 2.00 PPG; Bradford away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Crawley Town and Bradford runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in League Two. It has been a while since the last meeting — 6 January 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Crawley Town go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Crawley Town's record when hosting Bradford specifically: 2W 1D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
4
Crawley Town
2
Draws
0
Bradford
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Crawley Town and Bradford?
From 6 meetings on record, Crawley Town have won 4, Bradford have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Crawley Town and Bradford last play each other?
They last met on 6 January 2024, when Bradford 2-4 Crawley Town.
Who has won more matches between Crawley Town and Bradford?
Crawley Town have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Crawley Town are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Bradford tend to start slowly — only 25% of their games have a goal by half-time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Crawley Town 75%, Bradford 25% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 75% (Crawley Town) and 25% (Bradford).
On the defensive side: Bradford in 75%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Crawley Town home games / Bradford away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Crawley Town play Bradford?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 75% of Crawley Town's recent matches and 25% of Bradford's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Crawley Town vs Bradford usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 75% of Crawley Town's recent games and 25% of Bradford's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Crawley Town and Bradford tend to score early?
Crawley Town have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Bradford in 25% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Crawley Town edge out Bradford 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Crawley Town beat Bradford 2-1 at The People's Pension Stadium, Regular Season - 9, in the League Two. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Crawley Town 1.27 xG and Bradford 0.97 xG, a combined 2.24. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Crawley Town attack 1.13 / defence 1.15 against Bradford attack 0.78 / defence 1.17, drawn from 8/8 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Crawley Town 41% | Draw 32% | Bradford 27%, with Crawley Town to win its most likely call at 41%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Crawley Town 50%, Bradford 38%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Crawley Town's trading profile (8 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Bradford's trading profile (8 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Crawley Town 1.38 PPG, Bradford 1.50 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Crawley Town win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.