Crawley Town 1-0 Bradford – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Crawley Town at 35% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Crawley Town vs Bradford encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Crawley Town host Bradford at Broadfield Stadium in League Two, Regular Season - 1. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 5 August 2023 at 15:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Crawley Town — All Games: 3W 4D 3L from 10 League Two outings this season, averaging 1.30 points per game. Last five: W D W D L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Crawley Town haven't played a League Two game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Crawley Town at Broadfield Stadium this season: 3W 6D 1L from 10 home games — 1.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all League Two games this season, Bradford have recorded 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W L D W L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.20. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Bradford haven't played a League Two game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Bradford's away record: 4W 3D 3L from 10 road trips in League Two this season (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Crawley Town 1.30 PPG, Bradford 1.50 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 4 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Crawley Town, 0 for Bradford and 2 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 7 Apr 2023, ended 0–0 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Crawley Town in-play tendencies (46 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
Bradford in-play tendencies (46 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 42% of the time; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Crawley Town 52% versus Bradford 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Crawley Town 50% | Bradford 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Crawley Town 1.12 xG and Bradford 1.11 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Crawley Town attack 0.980 / defence 0.985 | Bradford attack 1.039 / defence 0.877. League average goals — home 1.302 / away 1.087. Data: 46 Crawley Town games / 46 Bradford games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Crawley Town 35% | Draw 31% | Bradford 34%. Fair-value odds: Crawley Town 2.86 | Draw 3.23 | Bradford 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.23. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.23 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Crawley Town are the pick at 35% — marginal model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Crawley Town offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.23 combined xG gives a 39% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 46% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Crawley Town 60% | Bradford 40%.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (46 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Crawley Town vs Bradford | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Broadfield Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 5 Aug 2023, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Crawley Town 35% | Draw 31% | Bradford 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 46% | xG Crawley Town 1.12 / Bradford 1.11 • Poisson strength factors: Crawley Town attack 0.980 / def 0.985 | Bradford attack 1.039 / def 0.877 | league avg home 1.302 / away 1.087 • Poisson stance: Crawley Town (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.12
Crawley Town xG
Expected Goals
1.11
Bradford xG
46%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Crawley Town vs Bradford kick off?
Crawley Town vs Bradford kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 5 August 2023 at Broadfield Stadium.
What was the final score in Crawley Town vs Bradford?
Crawley Town 1 - 0 Bradford.
Where is Crawley Town vs Bradford being played?
The match is being played at Broadfield Stadium.
What competition is Crawley Town vs Bradford part of?
Crawley Town vs Bradford is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Crawley Town vs Bradford?
Our statistical model gives Crawley Town a 35% chance of winning, Bradford a 34% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Crawley Town the favourite.
Will both teams score in Crawley Town vs Bradford?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Crawley Town and Bradford will score (BTTS).
Will Crawley Town vs Bradford have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Crawley Town and Bradford?
Record (4 meetings): Crawley Town 2W | Draws 2 | Bradford 0W.
What form are Crawley Town and Bradford in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. Crawley Town (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-D-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Crawley Town's attack rating (0.98) and Bradford's defence rating (0.88), the model arrives at 1.12 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Bradford's attack versus Crawley Town's defence, projects 1.11 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 46/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.5%), 1-0 (10.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Crawley Town Win
35%
2.90
31%
3.21
34%
2.92
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.0%
Away win
1 – 0
12.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.12
Crawley Town xG
Total xG
2.23
1.11
Bradford xG
2.90
35%
Home win
3.21
31%
Draw
2.92
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.16
54%
BTTS No
1.86
Clean Sheet
33%
3.04
33%
3.06
Win to Nil
11%
8.81
11%
8.92
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.7 | 12.0 | 6.7 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 12.0 | 13.4 | 7.4 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 7.5 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 2.8 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Crawley Town vs Bradford?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Crawley Town and Bradford expected to score?
The model projects 1.12 expected goals for Crawley Town and 1.11 for Bradford, a combined total of 2.23.
How confident is the prediction model for Crawley Town vs Bradford?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 46 outings, Crawley Town have picked up 1.00 PPG on a 11W 13D 22L record — W-D-W-D-L across the most recent five. Crawley Town haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Bradford's form line: 21W 15D 10L from 46 games, 1.70 PPG, last five W-L-D-W-L. Bradford haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Put side by side, Bradford are the form team by 0.70 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Crawley Town.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Crawley Town have posted 1.48 PPG from 23 outings (9W 7D 7L). That's noticeably better than their 1.00 PPG overall — Crawley Town are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Bradford have gone 11W 6D 6L from 23 away games — 1.70 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Crawley Town are averaging 1.04 goals scored and 1.54 conceded per game recently; Bradford are on 1.33 scored and 0.93 conceded.
Defensively: Bradford in 39% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 46 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Crawley Town
Pre-Season
Bradford
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Crawley Town and Bradford in coming into this match?
Crawley Town have gone 11W 13D 22L in their last 46 games (1.00 PPG), while Bradford have gone 21W 15D 10L in their last 46 (1.70 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Crawley Town at home or Bradford away?
Bradford's away record (1.70 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Crawley Town at home: 1.48 PPG; Bradford away: 1.70 PPG.
Have Crawley Town or Bradford been keeping clean sheets recently?
Crawley Town have kept a clean sheet in 22% of their recent games, Bradford in 39%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Crawley Town and Bradford runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in League Two. It has been a while since the last meeting — 6 January 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Crawley Town go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Crawley Town's record when hosting Bradford specifically: 2W 1D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
4
Crawley Town
2
Draws
0
Bradford
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Crawley Town and Bradford?
From 6 meetings on record, Crawley Town have won 4, Bradford have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Crawley Town and Bradford last play each other?
They last met on 6 January 2024, when Bradford 2-4 Crawley Town.
Who has won more matches between Crawley Town and Bradford?
Crawley Town have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Crawley Town are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
Bradford are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Crawley Town 56%, Bradford 39% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Crawley Town) and 44% (Bradford).
On the defensive side: Crawley Town keep a clean sheet in 30% of their matches; Bradford in 44%; Crawley Town have failed to score in 30% of games; Bradford in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Crawley Town home games / Bradford away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Crawley Town play Bradford?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of Crawley Town's recent matches and 39% of Bradford's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Crawley Town vs Bradford usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Crawley Town's recent games and 44% of Bradford's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Crawley Town and Bradford tend to score early?
Crawley Town have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, Bradford in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Crawley Town edge out Bradford 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Crawley Town beat Bradford 1-0 at Broadfield Stadium, Regular Season - 1, in the League Two. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Crawley Town 1.12 xG and Bradford 1.11 xG, a combined 2.23. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Bradford landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Crawley Town attack 0.98 / defence 0.98 against Bradford attack 1.04 / defence 0.88, drawn from 46/46 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Crawley Town 35% | Draw 31% | Bradford 34%, with Crawley Town to win its most likely call at 35%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 66% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Crawley Town 50%, Bradford 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Crawley Town's trading profile (46 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not.
Bradford's trading profile (46 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Bradford arrived the stronger side — 1.70 PPG against 1.00. Form was overturned, with Crawley Town winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Crawley Town (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.30 average — tighter than their form line. Bradford (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.17 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.