Colchester 0-1 Notts County – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Colchester at 49% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Colchester vs Notts County encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a League Two clash, Regular Season - 45 as Colchester welcome Notts County to Colchester Community Stadium. Kick-off is set for Saturday 25 April 2026 at 15:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all League Two games this season, Colchester have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: L W W W L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
At home at Colchester Community Stadium, Colchester have gone 5W 2D 3L this season (10 games, 1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game.
Notts County — All Games: 5W 0D 5L from 10 League Two fixtures this season — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W L W L L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Notts County's form when playing away from home: 5W 1D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Colchester 1.40 PPG, Notts County 1.50 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 5 previous encounters have yielded 3 wins for Colchester, 1 for Notts County and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 5 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.4 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 22 Nov 2025, ended 3–1 with Colchester winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.4 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Colchester trading profile (90 games, 45 at home): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games).
Notts County trading profile (90 games, 45 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 52% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 49% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Colchester 48% versus Notts County 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Colchester 34% | Notts County 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Colchester 1.59 xG and Notts County 1.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Colchester attack 1.150 / defence 0.858 | Notts County attack 1.060 / defence 1.104. League average goals — home 1.252 / away 1.200. Data: 90 Colchester games / 90 Notts County games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Colchester 49% | Draw 25% | Notts County 26%. Fair-value odds: Colchester 2.04 | Draw 4.00 | Notts County 3.85. Colchester hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.68. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.68 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Colchester as the most likely outcome at 49% — moderate model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Colchester offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.68 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 50% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by H2H averaging 3.4 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. Form rates are neutral: Colchester 50% | Notts County 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Colchester vs Notts County | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 45 | Venue: Colchester Community Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 25 Apr 2026, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Colchester 49% | Draw 25% | Notts County 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 53% | xG Colchester 1.59 / Notts County 1.09 • Poisson strength factors: Colchester attack 1.150 / def 0.858 | Notts County attack 1.060 / def 1.104 | league avg home 1.252 / away 1.200 • Poisson stance: Colchester (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.59
Colchester xG
Expected Goals
1.09
Notts County xG
53%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Colchester vs Notts County kick off?
Colchester vs Notts County kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 25 April 2026 at Colchester Community Stadium.
What was the final score in Colchester vs Notts County?
Colchester 0 - 1 Notts County.
Where is Colchester vs Notts County being played?
The match is being played at Colchester Community Stadium.
What competition is Colchester vs Notts County part of?
Colchester vs Notts County is a Regular Season - 45 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Colchester vs Notts County?
Our statistical model gives Colchester a 49% chance of winning, Notts County a 26% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Colchester the favourite.
Will both teams score in Colchester vs Notts County?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Colchester and Notts County will score (BTTS).
Will Colchester vs Notts County have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Colchester and Notts County?
Record (5 meetings): Colchester 3W | Draws 1 | Notts County 1W.
What form are Colchester and Notts County in?
Colchester (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-W-W-W-L. Notts County (all comps): 5W-0D-5L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-L-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Colchester's attack at 1.15x the league average against Notts County's defence at 1.10x — combine the two and it projects 1.59 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Notts County's attack versus Colchester's defence, projects 1.09 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 90/90 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 1-0 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Colchester Win
49%
2.04
25%
4.00
26%
3.83
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.9%
Home win
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.59
Colchester xG
Total xG
2.68
1.09
Notts County xG
2.04
49%
Home win
4.00
25%
Draw
3.83
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.89
47%
BTTS No
2.12
Clean Sheet
34%
2.98
20%
4.90
Win to Nil
16%
6.09
5%
18.80
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.8 | 7.5 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.9 | 11.9 | 6.5 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.7 | 9.4 | 5.2 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.6 | 5.0 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 2.0 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Colchester vs Notts County?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Colchester and Notts County expected to score?
The model projects 1.59 expected goals for Colchester and 1.09 for Notts County, a combined total of 2.68.
How confident is the prediction model for Colchester vs Notts County?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Colchester's recent record stands at 33W 31D 26L from 90 games, a 1.44 PPG return, with L-W-W-W-L in the last five.
Notts County, meanwhile, have gone 43W 17D 30L across 90 games — 1.62 PPG, with W-L-W-L-L in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Colchester on 1.44 PPG, Notts County on 1.62. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Colchester have managed 20W 14D 11L from 45 games — 1.64 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Notts County's away record stands at 20W 10D 15L across 45 trips, a 1.56 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Colchester are averaging 1.22 goals scored and 1.04 conceded per game recently; Notts County are on 1.53 scored and 1.11 conceded.
Defensively: Colchester have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 90 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Colchester
Current Season
Notts County
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Colchester and Notts County in coming into this match?
Colchester have gone 33W 31D 26L in their last 90 games (1.44 PPG), while Notts County have gone 43W 17D 30L in their last 90 (1.62 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Colchester at home or Notts County away?
Colchester's home record (1.64 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Colchester at home: 1.64 PPG; Notts County away: 1.56 PPG.
Have Colchester or Notts County been keeping clean sheets recently?
Colchester have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Notts County in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in League Two. They last met on 25 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Colchester's record when hosting Notts County specifically: 2W 0D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Colchester
1
Draws
2
Notts County
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Colchester and Notts County?
From 6 meetings on record, Colchester have won 3, Notts County have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Colchester and Notts County last play each other?
They last met on 25 April 2026, when Colchester 0-1 Notts County.
Who has won more matches between Colchester and Notts County?
Colchester have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Colchester see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Notts County are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Colchester 47%, Notts County 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Colchester) and 49% (Notts County).
On the defensive side: Colchester keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Colchester have failed to score in 27% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Colchester home games / Notts County away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Colchester play Notts County?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Colchester's recent matches and 53% of Notts County's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Colchester vs Notts County usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Colchester's recent games and 49% of Notts County's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Colchester and Notts County tend to score early?
Colchester have had a goal before half-time in 58% of their recent matches, Notts County in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Notts County defy the odds to beat Colchester 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Notts County beat Colchester 0-1 at Colchester Community Stadium, Regular Season - 45, in the League Two. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Colchester 1.59 xG and Notts County 1.09 xG, a combined 2.68. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Colchester fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Colchester attack 1.15 / defence 0.86 against Notts County attack 1.06 / defence 1.10, drawn from 90/90 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Colchester 49% | Draw 25% | Notts County 26%, with Colchester to win its most likely call at 49%. The actual Notts County win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 75% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Colchester 34%, Notts County 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Colchester's trading profile (90 games, 45 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Notts County's trading profile (90 games, 45 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Colchester 1.44 PPG, Notts County 1.62 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Notts County win broke the near-deadlock. Colchester (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.40 scoring average — below par going forward. Notts County (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.24 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.