Chesterfield 0-3 Accrington ST – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Chesterfield at 47% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Chesterfield vs Accrington ST encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Chesterfield host Accrington ST at SMH Group Stadium in League Two (matchday 15). Kick-off is Saturday 9 November 2024 at 15:00 UK time.
Form Guide
Chesterfield — last 10 games: 4W 5D 1L, averaging 1.70 points per game. Last five: D D W D W. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Chesterfield at home: 1W 6D 0L from their last 7 home games — 1.29 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.43 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 100% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Accrington ST stand at 3W 3D 4L — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W W W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling, Accrington ST have posted 2W 0D 8L from their last 10 away outings — 0.60 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Chesterfield carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.50 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.70 vs 1.20. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Both teams have scored in at least 80% of each side's games (from Chesterfield's last 7 home games and Accrington ST's last 10 away games). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
In-Play Profile
Chesterfield in-play tendencies (last 14 games, 6 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 83% of their matches in home games; they lead at the break 50% of the time; of the 7 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 43%; BTTS occurs in 100% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Accrington ST in-play tendencies (last 14 games, 6 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 83% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; of the 5 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 60%; of the 4 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 83% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 83% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Chesterfield 64% and Accrington ST 71% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Chesterfield 57% | Accrington ST 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Chesterfield 1.72 xG and Accrington ST 1.30 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Chesterfield attack 0.975 / defence 1.092 | Accrington ST attack 0.945 / defence 1.377. League average goals — home 1.279 / away 1.260. Accrington ST's defence rating of 1.377 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Chesterfield's projected output up. Data: built from Chesterfield's last 14 games and Accrington ST's last 59.
Result probabilities: Chesterfield 47% | Draw 24% | Accrington ST 29%. Fair-value odds: Chesterfield 2.12 | Draw 4.23 | Accrington ST 3.44. Chesterfield hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS Yes probability 60% | Total xG 3.02. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.02 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% — both xG figures (1.72 / 1.30) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Chesterfield at 47% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Chesterfield offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.02 combined xG gives a 58% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Chesterfield's last 7 home games and Accrington ST's last 10 away games) averaging 3.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 60% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Chesterfield 100% (last 7 home games) | Accrington ST 80% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Chesterfield vs Accrington ST | Competition: League Two, matchday 15 | Venue: SMH Group Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 9 November 2024 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Chesterfield 47% | Draw 24% | Accrington ST 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% (Under 42%) | BTTS Yes 60% (No 40%) | xG Chesterfield 1.72 / Accrington ST 1.30 • Poisson strength factors: Chesterfield attack 0.975 / def 1.092 | Accrington ST attack 0.945 / def 1.377 | league avg home 1.279 / away 1.260 • Poisson stance: Chesterfield (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.72
Chesterfield xG
Expected Goals
1.30
Accrington ST xG
60%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Chesterfield vs Accrington ST FAQs
What time does Chesterfield vs Accrington ST kick off?
Chesterfield vs Accrington ST kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Saturday 9 November 2024 at SMH Group Stadium.
What was the final score in Chesterfield vs Accrington ST?
Chesterfield 0 - 3 Accrington ST.
Where is Chesterfield vs Accrington ST being played?
The match is being played at SMH Group Stadium.
What competition is Chesterfield vs Accrington ST part of?
Chesterfield vs Accrington ST is a League Two fixture (matchday 15) (England).
Who is favourite to win Chesterfield vs Accrington ST?
Our statistical model gives Chesterfield a 47% chance of winning, Accrington ST a 29% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Chesterfield the favourite.
Will both teams score in Chesterfield vs Accrington ST?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Chesterfield and Accrington ST will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Chesterfield vs Accrington ST have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Chesterfield's attacking strength (0.97x league average) is weighed against Accrington ST's defensive record (1.38x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.72. The same calculation in reverse, Accrington ST's attack versus Chesterfield's defence, projects 1.30 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Chesterfield's last 14 games and Accrington ST's last 59 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.3%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 2-0 (7.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Chesterfield Win
47%
2.12
24%
4.23
29%
3.44
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
1 – 0
8.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.72
Chesterfield xG
Total xG
3.02
1.30
Accrington ST xG
2.12
47%
Home win
4.23
24%
Draw
3.44
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.68
40%
BTTS No
2.48
Clean Sheet
27%
3.67
18%
5.57
Win to Nil
13%
7.78
5%
19.13
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.9 | 6.4 | 4.1 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.4 | 10.9 | 7.1 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 9.4 | 6.1 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 5.4 | 3.5 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 2.3 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Chesterfield vs Accrington ST Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Chesterfield vs Accrington ST?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.3%.
How many goals are Chesterfield and Accrington ST expected to score?
The model projects 1.72 expected goals for Chesterfield and 1.30 for Accrington ST, a combined total of 3.02.
How confident is the prediction model for Chesterfield vs Accrington ST?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Chesterfield's recent record stands at 5W 7D 2L from 14 games, a 1.57 PPG return, with D-D-W-D-W in the last five.
Accrington ST, meanwhile, have gone 4W 4D 6L across 14 games — 1.14 PPG, with W-W-W-L-D in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Chesterfield by 0.43 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Accrington ST heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Chesterfield have managed 1W 5D 0L from their last 6 home games — 1.33 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Accrington ST's away record stands at 1W 0D 5L across their last 6 away games, a 0.50 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.14 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Accrington ST's recent record.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Chesterfield come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Chesterfield are averaging 2.00 goals scored and 1.07 conceded per game recently; Accrington ST are on 1.36 scored and 1.64 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Chesterfield have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games; Accrington ST in 71%.
Last 14 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Chesterfield
Blended
Accrington ST
Blended
Chesterfield (Home) vs Accrington ST (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Chesterfield
Blended
Accrington ST
Blended
❓ Chesterfield vs Accrington ST Form FAQs
What form are Chesterfield and Accrington ST in coming into this match?
Chesterfield have gone 5W 7D 2L in their last 14 games (1.57 PPG), while Accrington ST have gone 4W 4D 6L in their last 14 (1.14 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Chesterfield at home or Accrington ST away?
Chesterfield's home record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Chesterfield at home: 1.33 PPG; Accrington ST away: 0.50 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 4 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 1 year from November 2024. All of them came in League Two. The most recent was on 21 March 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 9 Nov 2024, when Accrington ST won Chesterfield 0-3 Accrington ST.
Chesterfield's record when hosting Accrington ST specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Chesterfield
1
Draws
1
Accrington ST
Recent Meetings
❓ Chesterfield vs Accrington ST H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Chesterfield and Accrington ST?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Chesterfield have won 2, Accrington ST have won 1, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Chesterfield and Accrington ST last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 21 March 2026: Accrington ST 0-1 Chesterfield.
Who has won more matches between Chesterfield and Accrington ST?
Chesterfield have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Chesterfield are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 50% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 100% of those situations.
Accrington ST are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Chesterfield at 100%, Accrington ST at 83%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 50% for Chesterfield and 83% for Accrington ST. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Chesterfield home games / Accrington ST away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Chesterfield vs Accrington ST Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Chesterfield and Accrington ST matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 100% of Chesterfield's games and 83% of Accrington ST's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Chesterfield and Accrington ST matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Chesterfield's matches and 83% of Accrington ST's.
Do Chesterfield and Accrington ST matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 83% of Chesterfield's recent matches and 83% of Accrington ST's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Accrington ST run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Chesterfield.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Accrington ST beat Chesterfield 0-3 at SMH Group Stadium, Regular Season - 15, in the League Two. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Chesterfield 1.72 xG and Accrington ST 1.30 xG, a combined 3.02. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Chesterfield fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Accrington ST outscored their 1.30 projection by 1.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Chesterfield attack 0.97 / defence 1.09 against Accrington ST attack 0.94 / defence 1.38, drawn from 14/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Chesterfield 47% | Draw 24% | Accrington ST 29%, with Chesterfield to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual Accrington ST win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Chesterfield 57%, Accrington ST 64%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 68%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Chesterfield's trading profile (14 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.
Accrington ST's trading profile (14 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Chesterfield arrived the stronger side — 1.57 PPG against 1.14. Form was overturned, with Accrington ST winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Chesterfield (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.33 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Accrington ST (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 2.33 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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