Cheltenham 2-1 Salford City – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Salford City at 45% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Cheltenham vs Salford City encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Salford City make the trip to EV Charger Points Stadium to face Cheltenham in League Two, Regular Season - 28. The match kicks off on Saturday 25 January 2025 at 15:00 UTC.
Form
Cheltenham (all games): 3W 4D 3L across 10 League Two fixtures this term — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D W L D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Cheltenham, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Cheltenham's home record at EV Charger Points Stadium: 4W 3D 3L from 10 League Two appearances (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Salford City's overall League Two record this term: 7W 1D 2L from 10 games (2.20 PPG). Last five: W W W W L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 0.40. Defensively, 0.40 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 10% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Salford City, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Salford City's form when playing away from home: 4W 4D 2L across 10 road games this term (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.60 is notably below their overall 2.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On a straight form reading, Salford City are the stronger side — 0.90 PPG clear of the hosts (2.20 vs 1.30). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Cheltenham 0W, Salford City 1W, 0D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 14 Sep 2024, ended 1–2 with Salford City winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Cheltenham — key trading statistics (71 games, 35 at home): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games).
Salford City — key trading statistics (71 games, 35 at away): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 51% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cheltenham 55% versus Salford City 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cheltenham 48% | Salford City 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cheltenham 1.03 xG and Salford City 1.45 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cheltenham attack 1.041 / defence 1.248 | Salford City attack 0.998 / defence 0.758. League average goals — home 1.312 / away 1.166. Salford City's defence strength of 0.758 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 25 Cheltenham games / 71 Salford City games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cheltenham 26% | Draw 29% | Salford City 45%. Fair-value odds: Cheltenham 3.85 | Draw 3.45 | Salford City 2.22. Salford City hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.49. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.49 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Salford City are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Salford City if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.49 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 45% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Cheltenham 70% | Salford City 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cheltenham vs Salford City | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: EV Charger Points Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 25 Jan 2025, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cheltenham 26% | Draw 29% | Salford City 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 51% | xG Cheltenham 1.03 / Salford City 1.45 • Poisson strength factors: Cheltenham attack 1.041 / def 1.248 | Salford City attack 0.998 / def 0.758 | league avg home 1.312 / away 1.166 • Poisson stance: Salford City (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.03
Cheltenham xG
Expected Goals
1.45
Salford City xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cheltenham vs Salford City kick off?
Cheltenham vs Salford City kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 25 January 2025 at EV Charger Points Stadium.
What was the final score in Cheltenham vs Salford City?
Cheltenham 2 - 1 Salford City.
Where is Cheltenham vs Salford City being played?
The match is being played at EV Charger Points Stadium.
What competition is Cheltenham vs Salford City part of?
Cheltenham vs Salford City is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Cheltenham vs Salford City?
Our statistical model gives Cheltenham a 26% chance of winning, Salford City a 45% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Salford City the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cheltenham vs Salford City?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Cheltenham and Salford City will score (BTTS).
Will Cheltenham vs Salford City have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cheltenham and Salford City?
Record (1 meetings): Cheltenham 0W | Draws 0 | Salford City 1W.
What form are Cheltenham and Salford City in?
Cheltenham (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-W-L-D-L. Salford City (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.40 | L5 W-W-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Cheltenham's attack at 1.04x the league average against Salford City's defence at 0.76x — combine the two and it projects 1.03 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Salford City's attack (1.00x) against Cheltenham's defence (1.25x) — and the away total comes out at 1.45.
These ratings are built from 25/71 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (10.5%), 0-0 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Salford City Win
26%
3.89
29%
3.46
45%
2.20
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.1%
Away win
1 – 2
9.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.03
Cheltenham xG
Total xG
2.49
1.45
Salford City xG
3.89
26%
Home win
3.46
29%
Draw
2.20
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.98
49%
BTTS No
2.03
Clean Sheet
23%
4.27
36%
2.82
Win to Nil
6%
16.60
16%
6.20
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.3 | 12.1 | 8.8 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.6 | 12.5 | 9.1 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.5 | 6.5 | 4.7 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 2.2 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cheltenham vs Salford City?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Cheltenham and Salford City expected to score?
The model projects 1.03 expected goals for Cheltenham and 1.45 for Salford City, a combined total of 2.49.
How confident is the prediction model for Cheltenham vs Salford City?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Cheltenham come into this having played 71 games, going 20W 15D 36L for 1.06 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-L-D-L. The sample for Cheltenham is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Salford City sit at 1.31 PPG from 71 outings (25W 18D 28L), a run that reads W-W-W-W-L across their last five. The sample for Salford City is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.06 PPG for Cheltenham against 1.31 for Salford City. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Cheltenham's home form reads 13W 7D 15L across 35 games on their own ground, a 1.31 PPG return.
Away from home, Salford City have taken 1.31 points per game from 35 outings (12W 10D 13L).
Attack vs Defence
Cheltenham are averaging 1.06 goals scored and 1.45 conceded per game recently; Salford City are on 1.34 scored and 1.45 conceded.
Last 71 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cheltenham
Blended
Salford City
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cheltenham and Salford City in coming into this match?
Cheltenham have gone 20W 15D 36L in their last 71 games (1.06 PPG), while Salford City have gone 25W 18D 28L in their last 71 (1.31 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cheltenham at home or Salford City away?
Cheltenham's home record (1.31 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cheltenham at home: 1.31 PPG; Salford City away: 1.31 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in League Two. They last met on 21 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Cheltenham have gone 2W 0D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Salford City — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Cheltenham
1
Draws
1
Salford City
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cheltenham and Salford City?
From 4 meetings on record, Cheltenham have won 2, Salford City have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Cheltenham and Salford City last play each other?
They last met on 21 February 2026, when Cheltenham 3-2 Salford City.
Who has won more matches between Cheltenham and Salford City?
Cheltenham have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Cheltenham are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches.
Salford City see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cheltenham 54%, Salford City 51% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Cheltenham) and 43% (Salford City).
On the defensive side: Salford City in 34%; Salford City in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cheltenham home games / Salford City away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cheltenham play Salford City?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Cheltenham's recent matches and 51% of Salford City's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Cheltenham vs Salford City usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Cheltenham's recent games and 43% of Salford City's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cheltenham and Salford City tend to score early?
Cheltenham have had a goal before half-time in 66% of their recent matches, Salford City in 57% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Cheltenham defy the odds to beat Salford City 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cheltenham beat Salford City 2-1 at EV Charger Points Stadium, Regular Season - 28, in the League Two. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cheltenham 1.03 xG and Salford City 1.45 xG, a combined 2.49. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Cheltenham beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cheltenham attack 1.04 / defence 1.25 against Salford City attack 1.00 / defence 0.76, drawn from 25/71 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cheltenham 26% | Draw 29% | Salford City 45%, with Salford City to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual Cheltenham win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cheltenham 48%, Salford City 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cheltenham's trading profile (71 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Salford City's trading profile (71 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Cheltenham 1.06 PPG, Salford City 1.31 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Cheltenham win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.