Carlisle 0-0 Oldham – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 39% as Carlisle take on Oldham.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Carlisle and Oldham meet at Brunton Park in League Two, Regular Season - 14. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 23 October 2021 at 15:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Carlisle have collected 0.60 PPG across 10 League Two outings this season: 1W 3D 6L. Last five: L L L L D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Carlisle, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Carlisle's form when playing at home: 1W 3D 2L across 6 games at Brunton Park this term (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.83 goals scored and 1.17 conceded per game.
Oldham (all games): 3W 2D 5L across 10 League Two outings this term — 1.10 points per game. Last five: W L D W L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Oldham, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Oldham have gone 2W 1D 3L from 6 away fixtures this term (1.17 PPG). Away from home they average 0.67 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game.
Oldham arrive in superior form — a 0.50 PPG advantage (1.10 vs 0.60) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Trading & In-Play
Carlisle — key trading statistics (13 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 33% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); they fail to score in 46% of games.
Oldham — key trading statistics (13 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 46% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Carlisle 54% versus Oldham 38%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Carlisle 62% | Oldham 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Carlisle 0.93 xG and Oldham 0.91 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Carlisle attack 0.784 / defence 1.213 | Oldham attack 0.665 / defence 1.195. League average goals — home 0.993 / away 1.123. Carlisle's attack strength of 0.784 is below the league average — the 0.93 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 13 Carlisle games / 13 Oldham games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Carlisle 31% | Draw 39% | Oldham 30%. Fair-value odds: Carlisle 3.23 | Draw 2.56 | Oldham 3.33. The draw (39%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 28% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 1.84. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 72% probability — total xG of 1.84 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 39% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 31% and away win at 30% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
The Poisson model projects 1.84 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 28% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 39% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Carlisle 50% | Oldham 33% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Carlisle vs Oldham | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Brunton Park • Kick-off: Saturday 23 Oct 2021, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Carlisle 31% | Draw 39% | Oldham 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 28% | BTTS 39% | xG Carlisle 0.93 / Oldham 0.91 • Poisson strength factors: Carlisle attack 0.784 / def 1.213 | Oldham attack 0.665 / def 1.195 | league avg home 0.993 / away 1.123 • Poisson stance: Draw (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.93
Carlisle xG
Expected Goals
0.91
Oldham xG
39%
BTTS
58%
Over 1.5
28%
Over 2.5
11%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Carlisle vs Oldham kick off?
Carlisle vs Oldham kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 23 October 2021 at Brunton Park.
What was the final score in Carlisle vs Oldham?
Carlisle 0 - 0 Oldham.
Where is Carlisle vs Oldham being played?
The match is being played at Brunton Park.
What competition is Carlisle vs Oldham part of?
Carlisle vs Oldham is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Carlisle vs Oldham?
Our statistical model gives Carlisle a 31% chance of winning, Oldham a 30% chance, and a 39% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Carlisle vs Oldham?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Carlisle and Oldham will score (BTTS).
Will Carlisle vs Oldham have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 28%.
What is the head-to-head record between Carlisle and Oldham?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Carlisle and Oldham in?
Carlisle (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-L-L-D. Oldham (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Carlisle's attack at 0.78x the league average against Oldham's defence at 1.20x — combine the two and it projects 0.93 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Oldham's attack (0.67x) against Carlisle's defence (1.21x) — and the away total comes out at 0.91.
These ratings are built from 13/13 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 17.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (15.2%), 1-0 (13.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 46% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
31%
3.20
39%
2.57
30%
3.35
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
15.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
14.8%
Home win
0 – 1
14.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.93
Carlisle xG
Total xG
1.84
0.91
Oldham xG
3.20
31%
Home win
2.57
39%
Draw
3.35
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
55%
Over 1.5
1.82
45%
Under 1.5
2.22
28%
Over 2.5
3.57
72%
Under 2.5
1.39
11%
Over 3.5
9.09
89%
Under 3.5
1.12
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.54
61%
BTTS No
1.65
Clean Sheet
40%
2.47
39%
2.54
Win to Nil
13%
7.92
12%
8.50
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15.9 | 14.4 | 6.5 | 2.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.8 | 13.4 | 6.1 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 6.3 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 2.1 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Carlisle vs Oldham?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.7%.
How many goals are Carlisle and Oldham expected to score?
The model projects 0.93 expected goals for Carlisle and 0.91 for Oldham, a combined total of 1.84.
How confident is the prediction model for Carlisle vs Oldham?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 13 outings, Carlisle have picked up 0.85 PPG on a 2W 5D 6L record — L-L-L-L-D across the most recent five. The sample for Carlisle is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Oldham's form line: 3W 2D 8L from 13 games, 0.85 PPG, last five W-L-D-W-L. The sample for Oldham is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.85 PPG for Carlisle against 0.85 for Oldham. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Carlisle have posted 1.00 PPG from 6 outings (1W 3D 2L).
On the road, Oldham have gone 2W 1D 3L from 6 away games — 1.17 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Carlisle are averaging 0.85 goals scored and 1.62 conceded per game recently; Oldham are on 0.77 scored and 1.46 conceded.
Last 13 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Carlisle
Blended
Oldham
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Carlisle and Oldham in coming into this match?
Carlisle have gone 2W 5D 6L in their last 13 games (0.85 PPG), while Oldham have gone 3W 2D 8L in their last 13 (0.85 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Carlisle at home or Oldham away?
Oldham's away record (1.17 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Carlisle at home: 1.00 PPG; Oldham away: 1.17 PPG.
Have Carlisle or Oldham been keeping clean sheets recently?
Carlisle have kept a clean sheet in 15% of their recent games, Oldham in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in League Two. It has been a while since the last meeting — 5 March 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Carlisle
1
Draws
0
Oldham
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Carlisle and Oldham?
From 2 meetings on record, Carlisle have won 1, Oldham have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Carlisle and Oldham last play each other?
They last met on 5 March 2022, when Oldham 1-2 Carlisle.
Who has won more matches between Carlisle and Oldham?
Carlisle have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Carlisle are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Oldham see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Carlisle 50%, Oldham 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Carlisle) and 50% (Oldham).
On the defensive side: Oldham in 33%; Carlisle have failed to score in 50% of games; Oldham in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Carlisle home games / Oldham away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Carlisle play Oldham?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Carlisle's recent matches and 33% of Oldham's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Carlisle vs Oldham usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Carlisle's recent games and 50% of Oldham's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Carlisle and Oldham tend to score early?
Carlisle have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Oldham in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Carlisle's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Carlisle and Oldham finished level at 0-0 at Brunton Park, Regular Season - 14, in the League Two. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Carlisle 0.93 xG and Oldham 0.91 xG, a combined 1.84. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Carlisle fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Oldham landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Carlisle attack 0.78 / defence 1.21 against Oldham attack 0.67 / defence 1.20, drawn from 13/13 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Carlisle 31% | Draw 39% | Oldham 30%, with the draw its most likely call at 39%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 28%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 58% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Carlisle 62%, Oldham 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Carlisle's trading profile (13 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 46% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Oldham's trading profile (13 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 46% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Carlisle 0.85 PPG, Oldham 0.85 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Carlisle (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.83 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.17 average — tighter than their form line. Oldham (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.33 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.