Cambridge United 3-1 Crawley Town – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Cambridge United at 53% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Cambridge United vs Crawley Town encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Abbey Stadium plays host to Cambridge United versus Crawley Town in League Two, Regular Season - 11. Kick-off: Saturday 4 October 2025 at 15:00 UTC.
Current Form
Cambridge United's overall League Two record this term: 4W 3D 3L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: W L D W D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Cambridge United, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Cambridge United's home record at Abbey Stadium: 3W 3D 4L from 10 League Two appearances (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Crawley Town have collected 0.80 PPG across 10 League Two outings this season: 2W 2D 6L. Last five: D W W L L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Crawley Town, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Crawley Town's away record: 3W 2D 5L from 10 road trips in League Two this season (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.
Form favours the hosts. Cambridge United's 1.50 PPG return is 0.70 points per game ahead of Crawley Town's 0.80 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 2 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Cambridge United, 1 for Crawley Town and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.5 per game from 2 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 1 Mar 2025, ended 2–0 with Cambridge United winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
Cambridge United goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (56 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Crawley Town goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (56 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cambridge United 50% versus Crawley Town 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cambridge United 41% | Crawley Town 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cambridge United 1.42 xG and Crawley Town 0.77 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cambridge United attack 0.871 / defence 0.927 | Crawley Town attack 0.708 / defence 1.243. League average goals — home 1.311 / away 1.166. Crawley Town bring a strong defensive rating of 1.243 — this is suppressing Cambridge United's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 10 Cambridge United games / 10 Crawley Town games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cambridge United 53% | Draw 27% | Crawley Town 20%. Fair-value odds: Cambridge United 1.89 | Draw 3.70 | Crawley Town 5.00. Cambridge United hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.19. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.19 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Cambridge United at 53% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Cambridge United if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.19 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 37% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 41% on No. Form rates are neutral: Cambridge United 60% | Crawley Town 40%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cambridge United vs Crawley Town | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Abbey Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 4 Oct 2025, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cambridge United 53% | Draw 27% | Crawley Town 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 41% | xG Cambridge United 1.42 / Crawley Town 0.77 • Poisson strength factors: Cambridge United attack 0.871 / def 0.927 | Crawley Town attack 0.708 / def 1.243 | league avg home 1.311 / away 1.166 • Poisson stance: Cambridge United (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.42
Cambridge United xG
Expected Goals
0.77
Crawley Town xG
41%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cambridge United vs Crawley Town kick off?
Cambridge United vs Crawley Town kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 4 October 2025 at Abbey Stadium.
What was the final score in Cambridge United vs Crawley Town?
Cambridge United 3 - 1 Crawley Town.
Where is Cambridge United vs Crawley Town being played?
The match is being played at Abbey Stadium.
What competition is Cambridge United vs Crawley Town part of?
Cambridge United vs Crawley Town is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Cambridge United vs Crawley Town?
Our statistical model gives Cambridge United a 53% chance of winning, Crawley Town a 20% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Cambridge United the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cambridge United vs Crawley Town?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Cambridge United and Crawley Town will score (BTTS).
Will Cambridge United vs Crawley Town have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cambridge United and Crawley Town?
Record (2 meetings): Cambridge United 1W | Draws 0 | Crawley Town 1W.
What form are Cambridge United and Crawley Town in?
Cambridge United (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-L-D-W-D. Crawley Town (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-W-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Cambridge United's attacking strength (0.87x league average) is weighed against Crawley Town's defensive record (1.24x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.42. Flip it around — Crawley Town's attack (0.71x) against Cambridge United's defence (0.93x) — and the away total comes out at 0.77.
These ratings are built from 10/10 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-0, at 14.4%. Close behind: 1-1 (13.8%), 0-0 (12.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cambridge United Win
53%
1.90
27%
3.67
20%
4.95
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
2 – 0
11.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.42
Cambridge United xG
Total xG
2.19
0.77
Crawley Town xG
1.90
53%
Home win
3.67
27%
Draw
4.95
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.47
59%
BTTS No
1.68
Clean Sheet
47%
2.15
24%
4.14
Win to Nil
24%
4.09
5%
20.49
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.2 | 8.6 | 3.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 16.0 | 12.2 | 4.7 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.3 | 8.7 | 3.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 5.4 | 4.1 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.9 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cambridge United vs Crawley Town?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Cambridge United and Crawley Town expected to score?
The model projects 1.42 expected goals for Cambridge United and 0.77 for Crawley Town, a combined total of 2.19.
How confident is the prediction model for Cambridge United vs Crawley Town?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Cambridge United come into this having played 56 games, going 13W 14D 29L for 0.95 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-D-W-D. The sample for Cambridge United is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Crawley Town sit at 0.96 PPG from 56 outings (14W 12D 30L), a run that reads D-W-W-L-L across their last five. The sample for Crawley Town is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.95 PPG for Cambridge United against 0.96 for Crawley Town. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Cambridge United's home form reads 8W 7D 13L across 28 games on their own ground, a 1.11 PPG return.
Away from home, Crawley Town have taken 0.82 points per game from 28 outings (6W 5D 17L).
Attack vs Defence
Cambridge United are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.46 conceded per game recently; Crawley Town are on 1.16 scored and 1.79 conceded.
Last 56 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cambridge United
Blended
Crawley Town
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cambridge United and Crawley Town in coming into this match?
Cambridge United have gone 13W 14D 29L in their last 56 games (0.95 PPG), while Crawley Town have gone 14W 12D 30L in their last 56 (0.96 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cambridge United at home or Crawley Town away?
Cambridge United's home record (1.11 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cambridge United at home: 1.11 PPG; Crawley Town away: 0.82 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. The pairing has crossed competitions too — League One, League Two all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 10 February 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Cambridge United go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Cambridge United won 0-3 on 10 Feb 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Cambridge United have gone 1W 0D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Crawley Town — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Cambridge United
0
Draws
1
Crawley Town
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cambridge United and Crawley Town?
From 4 meetings on record, Cambridge United have won 3, Crawley Town have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Cambridge United and Crawley Town last play each other?
They last met on 10 February 2026, when Crawley Town 0-3 Cambridge United.
Who has won more matches between Cambridge United and Crawley Town?
Cambridge United have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Cambridge United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Crawley Town are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cambridge United 46%, Crawley Town 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 32% (Cambridge United) and 64% (Crawley Town).
On the defensive side: Cambridge United have failed to score in 36% of games; Crawley Town in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cambridge United home games / Crawley Town away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cambridge United play Crawley Town?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Cambridge United's recent matches and 43% of Crawley Town's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Cambridge United vs Crawley Town usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 32% of Cambridge United's recent games and 64% of Crawley Town's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cambridge United and Crawley Town tend to score early?
Cambridge United have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Crawley Town in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Cambridge United cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Crawley Town.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cambridge United beat Crawley Town 3-1 at Abbey Stadium, Regular Season - 11, in the League Two. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cambridge United 1.42 xG and Crawley Town 0.77 xG, a combined 2.19. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Cambridge United beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cambridge United attack 0.87 / defence 0.93 against Crawley Town attack 0.71 / defence 1.24, drawn from 10/10 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cambridge United 53% | Draw 27% | Crawley Town 20%, with Cambridge United to win its most likely call at 53%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. Over 3.5 was 18% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cambridge United 41%, Crawley Town 55%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cambridge United's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Crawley Town's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Cambridge United 0.95 PPG, Crawley Town 0.96 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Cambridge United win broke the near-deadlock. Cambridge United (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.11 average — above their attacking norm. Crawley Town (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 2.07 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.