Bradford 1-1 Salford City – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Salford City at 36%, yet in-form Bradford provide a compelling counter-argument — this Bradford vs Salford City fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Salford City travel to University of Bradford Stadium to take on Bradford in League Two (matchday 21). The game is scheduled for Tuesday 23 January 2024 at 19:45 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Bradford have gone 4W 3D 3L — a 1.50 PPG return. Last five: D D L L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
At home, Bradford have gone 2W 5D 3L in their last 10 home games (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Salford City stand at 1W 3D 6L — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L L L D W. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 2.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
On the road, Salford City have gone 3W 2D 5L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from their last 10 away games (50%) — they are hard to break down on the road. Their away PPG of 1.10 exceeds their overall 0.60 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Bradford carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.90 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.50 vs 0.60. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Head to Head
The H2H picture is flat: the 4 H2H matches we hold have produced 3 wins for Bradford, 1 for Salford City and 0 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
The 4 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 1 Jan 2023, ended Bradford 3–2 Salford City — a Bradford win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Bradford trading profile (last 75 games, 36 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 72% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; of the 22 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 27%; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games).
Salford City trading profile (last 75 games, 36 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bradford 52% versus Salford City 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bradford 45% | Salford City 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bradford 1.20 xG and Salford City 1.20 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bradford attack 0.821 / defence 1.020 | Salford City attack 0.883 / defence 0.958. League average goals — home 1.526 / away 1.336. Data: built from Bradford's last 73 games and Salford City's last 73.
Result probabilities: Bradford 36% | Draw 28% | Salford City 36%. Fair-value odds: Bradford 2.77 | Draw 3.60 | Salford City 2.76. The model can't separate the sides — both are rated at 36% to win, with the draw at 28%. There is no result lean here.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS Yes probability 49% | Total xG 2.40. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.40 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 51% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
The Poisson model can't separate the sides — Bradford 36% and Salford City 36%, with the draw at 28%. There is no result lean from the model; the goals and BTTS markets below are where it has a view.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.40 combined xG gives a 57% probability to Under 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Bradford 70% (last 10 home games) | Salford City 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bradford vs Salford City | Competition: League Two, matchday 21 | Venue: University of Bradford Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 23 January 2024 at 19:45 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bradford 36% | Draw 28% | Salford City 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% (Under 57%) | BTTS Yes 49% (No 51%) | xG Bradford 1.20 / Salford City 1.20 • Poisson strength factors: Bradford attack 0.821 / def 1.020 | Salford City attack 0.883 / def 0.958 | league avg home 1.526 / away 1.336 • Poisson stance: no clear lean — Bradford and Salford City level at 36% — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.20
Bradford xG
Expected Goals
1.20
Salford City xG
49%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Bradford vs Salford City FAQs
What time does Bradford vs Salford City kick off?
Bradford vs Salford City kicked off at 19:45 UK time on Tuesday 23 January 2024 at University of Bradford Stadium.
What was the final score in Bradford vs Salford City?
Bradford 1 - 1 Salford City.
Where is Bradford vs Salford City being played?
The match is being played at University of Bradford Stadium.
What competition is Bradford vs Salford City part of?
Bradford vs Salford City is a League Two fixture (matchday 21) (England).
Who is favourite to win Bradford vs Salford City?
Our statistical model gives Bradford a 36% chance of winning, Salford City a 36% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Bradford vs Salford City?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Bradford and Salford City will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (51%).
Will Bradford vs Salford City have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (57%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Bradford's attacking strength (0.82x league average) is weighed against Salford City's defensive record (0.96x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.20. The same calculation in reverse, Salford City's attack versus Bradford's defence, projects 1.20 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Bradford's last 73 games and Salford City's last 73 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.7%), 0-1 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Salford City Win
36%
2.77
28%
3.60
36%
2.76
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.9%
Away win
1 – 0
10.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.20
Bradford xG
Total xG
2.40
1.20
Salford City xG
2.77
36%
Home win
3.60
28%
Draw
2.76
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.04
51%
BTTS No
1.96
Clean Sheet
30%
3.33
30%
3.32
Win to Nil
11%
9.23
11%
9.19
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.0 | 10.9 | 6.5 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.9 | 13.1 | 7.9 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 7.8 | 4.7 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 3.1 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Bradford vs Salford City Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Bradford vs Salford City?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Bradford and Salford City expected to score?
The model projects 1.20 expected goals for Bradford and 1.20 for Salford City, a combined total of 2.40.
How confident is the prediction model for Bradford vs Salford City?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Bradford come into this having played 75 games, going 30W 24D 21L for 1.52 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-L-L-D.
On the other side, Salford City sit at 1.40 PPG from 75 outings (30W 15D 30L), a run that reads L-L-L-D-W across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Bradford on 1.52 PPG, Salford City on 1.40. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Bradford's home form reads 14W 15D 7L across their last 36 home games, a 1.58 PPG return.
Away from home, Salford City have taken 1.47 points per game from their last 36 away games (16W 5D 15L).
The Goals Picture
Bradford are averaging 1.29 goals scored and 1.09 conceded per game recently; Salford City are on 1.45 scored and 1.39 conceded.
Defensively: Bradford have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 75 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bradford
Blended
Salford City
Blended
Bradford (Home) vs Salford City (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Bradford
Blended
Salford City
Blended
❓ Bradford vs Salford City Form FAQs
What form are Bradford and Salford City in coming into this match?
Bradford have gone 30W 24D 21L in their last 75 games (1.52 PPG), while Salford City have gone 30W 15D 30L in their last 75 (1.40 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bradford at home or Salford City away?
Bradford's home record (1.58 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bradford at home: 1.58 PPG; Salford City away: 1.47 PPG.
Have Bradford or Salford City been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bradford have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Salford City in 27%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 8 H2H matches in our data, going back to September 2021. All of them came in League Two. The most recent in our data was on 1 March 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Bradford's record when hosting Salford City specifically: 2W 2D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
5
Bradford
2
Draws
1
Salford City
Recent Meetings
❓ Bradford vs Salford City H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Bradford and Salford City?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, Bradford have won 5, Salford City have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Bradford and Salford City last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 1 March 2025: Salford City 1-2 Bradford.
Who has won more matches between Bradford and Salford City?
Bradford have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Bradford are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 31% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Salford City are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 22% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bradford 58%, Salford City 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Bradford) and 56% (Salford City).
On the defensive side: Bradford keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bradford home games / Salford City away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Bradford vs Salford City Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Bradford and Salford City matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 58% of Bradford's games and 56% of Salford City's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Bradford and Salford City matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Bradford's recent games and 56% of Salford City's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bradford and Salford City matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 72% of Bradford's recent matches and 67% of Salford City's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Bradford and Salford City share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at University of Bradford Stadium, Regular Season - 21, as Bradford and Salford City drew 1-1 in the League Two. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bradford 1.20 xG and Salford City 1.20 xG, a combined 2.40. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bradford attack 0.82 / defence 1.02 against Salford City attack 0.88 / defence 0.96, drawn from 73/73 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bradford 36% | Draw 28% | Salford City 36%, with Bradford to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bradford 45%, Salford City 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bradford's trading profile (75 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Salford City's trading profile (75 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Bradford 1.52 PPG, Salford City 1.40 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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