Bradford 1-2 Crawley Town – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Bradford at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this Bradford vs Crawley Town fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A League Two encounter, Regular Season - 29 sees Crawley Town travel to The Utilita Energy Stadium to take on Bradford. The game is scheduled for Saturday 29 January 2022, 15:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Bradford stand at 3W 5D 2L from 10 League Two matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W L W D W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Bradford, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at The Utilita Energy Stadium, Bradford have gone 2W 7D 1L this season (10 games, 1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all League Two games this season, Crawley Town have recorded 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W W D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Crawley Town, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Crawley Town's away record: 5W 2D 3L from 10 road trips in League Two this season (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.40 PPG (Bradford) versus 1.50 (Crawley Town). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Bradford register both teams scoring in 80% of relevant matches, Crawley Town in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Bradford, 1 for Crawley Town and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 25 Sep 2021, ended 1–2 with Crawley Town winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Bradford in-play tendencies (25 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 83% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Crawley Town in-play tendencies (25 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Bradford 72% and Crawley Town 64% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bradford 48% | Crawley Town 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bradford 1.23 xG and Crawley Town 1.13 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bradford attack 1.013 / defence 1.136 | Crawley Town attack 0.858 / defence 1.133. League average goals — home 1.068 / away 1.160. Data: 26 Bradford games / 25 Crawley Town games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bradford 36% | Draw 33% | Crawley Town 31%. Fair-value odds: Bradford 2.78 | Draw 3.03 | Crawley Town 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.36. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.36 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Bradford are the pick at 36% — marginal model lean. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Bradford offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.36 combined xG gives a 42% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 50% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Bradford 80% | Crawley Town 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bradford vs Crawley Town | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: The Utilita Energy Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 29 Jan 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bradford 36% | Draw 33% | Crawley Town 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 50% | xG Bradford 1.23 / Crawley Town 1.13 • Poisson strength factors: Bradford attack 1.013 / def 1.136 | Crawley Town attack 0.858 / def 1.133 | league avg home 1.068 / away 1.160 • Poisson stance: Bradford (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.23
Bradford xG
Expected Goals
1.13
Crawley Town xG
50%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bradford vs Crawley Town kick off?
Bradford vs Crawley Town kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 29 January 2022 at The Utilita Energy Stadium.
What was the final score in Bradford vs Crawley Town?
Bradford 1 - 2 Crawley Town.
Where is Bradford vs Crawley Town being played?
The match is being played at The Utilita Energy Stadium.
What competition is Bradford vs Crawley Town part of?
Bradford vs Crawley Town is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Bradford vs Crawley Town?
Our statistical model gives Bradford a 36% chance of winning, Crawley Town a 31% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Bradford the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bradford vs Crawley Town?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Bradford and Crawley Town will score (BTTS).
Will Bradford vs Crawley Town have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bradford and Crawley Town?
Record (1 meetings): Bradford 0W | Draws 0 | Crawley Town 1W.
What form are Bradford and Crawley Town in?
Bradford (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-W-D-W. Crawley Town (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Bradford's attack at 1.01x the league average against Crawley Town's defence at 1.13x — combine the two and it projects 1.23 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Crawley Town's attack versus Bradford's defence, projects 1.13 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 26/25 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (11.2%), 1-0 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bradford Win
36%
2.79
33%
3.04
31%
3.20
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.6%
Home win
0 – 1
10.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.23
Bradford xG
Total xG
2.36
1.13
Crawley Town xG
2.79
36%
Home win
3.04
33%
Draw
3.20
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.99
50%
BTTS No
2.01
Clean Sheet
32%
3.10
29%
3.41
Win to Nil
12%
8.63
9%
10.92
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.5 | 10.7 | 6.1 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.6 | 13.1 | 7.4 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 8.1 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 3.3 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bradford vs Crawley Town?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Bradford and Crawley Town expected to score?
The model projects 1.23 expected goals for Bradford and 1.13 for Crawley Town, a combined total of 2.36.
How confident is the prediction model for Bradford vs Crawley Town?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 25 outings, Bradford have picked up 1.40 PPG on a 8W 11D 6L record — W-L-W-D-W across the most recent five. The sample for Bradford is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Crawley Town's form line: 9W 5D 11L from 25 games, 1.28 PPG, last five W-W-D-L-L. The sample for Crawley Town is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Bradford on 1.40 PPG, Crawley Town on 1.28. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Bradford have posted 1.58 PPG from 12 outings (4W 7D 1L).
On the road, Crawley Town have gone 5W 2D 5L from 12 away games — 1.42 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Bradford are averaging 1.32 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game recently; Crawley Town are on 1.16 scored and 1.40 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Bradford have seen both teams score in 72% of their recent games; Crawley Town in 64%.
Last 25 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bradford
Blended
Crawley Town
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bradford and Crawley Town in coming into this match?
Bradford have gone 8W 11D 6L in their last 25 games (1.40 PPG), while Crawley Town have gone 9W 5D 11L in their last 25 (1.28 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bradford at home or Crawley Town away?
Bradford's home record (1.58 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bradford at home: 1.58 PPG; Crawley Town away: 1.42 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in League Two. It has been a while since the last meeting — 6 January 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Crawley Town have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Bradford's record when hosting Crawley Town specifically: 0W 1D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Bradford
2
Draws
4
Crawley Town
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bradford and Crawley Town?
From 6 meetings on record, Bradford have won 0, Crawley Town have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Bradford and Crawley Town last play each other?
They last met on 6 January 2024, when Bradford 2-4 Crawley Town.
Who has won more matches between Bradford and Crawley Town?
Crawley Town have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Bradford are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Crawley Town are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Bradford at 83%, Crawley Town at 58%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Bradford) and 42% (Crawley Town).
On the defensive side: Crawley Town in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bradford home games / Crawley Town away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bradford play Crawley Town?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 83% of Bradford's games and 58% of Crawley Town's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Bradford vs Crawley Town usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Bradford's recent games and 42% of Crawley Town's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bradford and Crawley Town tend to score early?
Bradford have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Crawley Town in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Crawley Town defy the odds to beat Bradford 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Crawley Town beat Bradford 1-2 at The Utilita Energy Stadium, Regular Season - 29, in the League Two. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bradford 1.23 xG and Crawley Town 1.13 xG, a combined 2.36. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Crawley Town outscored their 1.13 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bradford attack 1.01 / defence 1.14 against Crawley Town attack 0.86 / defence 1.13, drawn from 26/25 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bradford 36% | Draw 33% | Crawley Town 31%, with Bradford to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual Crawley Town win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bradford 48%, Crawley Town 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 68%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bradford's trading profile (25 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 72% of their matches — today it did.
Crawley Town's trading profile (25 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Bradford 1.40 PPG, Crawley Town 1.28 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Crawley Town win broke the near-deadlock. Bradford (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.17 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Crawley Town (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.17 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.