Bradford 0-0 Colchester – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Bradford at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this Bradford vs Colchester fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Bradford and Colchester meet at The Utilita Energy Stadium in League Two, Regular Season - 20. This fixture gets under way on Wednesday 8 December 2021 at 19:45 UTC.
Current Form
Bradford's overall League Two record this term: 2W 6D 2L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: D D D L D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Bradford, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Bradford's home record at The Utilita Energy Stadium: 3W 5D 1L from 9 League Two appearances (1.56 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.67 goals scored and 1.22 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 89% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Colchester have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 League Two outings this season: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: L W L W D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Colchester, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Colchester's form when playing away from home: 2W 3D 3L across 8 road games this term (1.12 PPG). Away from home they average 0.75 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.20 PPG for Bradford against 1.10 for Colchester. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Trading
Bradford half-time and goal-timing data (18 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 88% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games).
Colchester half-time and goal-timing data (18 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Bradford 78% and Colchester 50% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Bradford 44% | Colchester 33%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bradford 1.47 xG and Colchester 0.91 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bradford attack 1.075 / defence 1.220 | Colchester attack 0.639 / defence 1.280. League average goals — home 1.065 / away 1.173. Colchester bring a strong defensive rating of 1.280 — this is suppressing Bradford's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 19 Bradford games / 18 Colchester games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bradford 48% | Draw 31% | Colchester 21%. Fair-value odds: Bradford 2.08 | Draw 3.23 | Colchester 4.76. Bradford hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.38. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.38 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Bradford are the pick at 48% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Bradford if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.38 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 42% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 49% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Bradford 89% | Colchester 38% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bradford vs Colchester | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: The Utilita Energy Stadium • Kick-off: Wednesday 8 Dec 2021, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bradford 48% | Draw 31% | Colchester 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 49% | xG Bradford 1.47 / Colchester 0.91 • Poisson strength factors: Bradford attack 1.075 / def 1.220 | Colchester attack 0.639 / def 1.280 | league avg home 1.065 / away 1.173 • Poisson stance: Bradford (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.47
Bradford xG
Expected Goals
0.91
Colchester xG
49%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bradford vs Colchester kick off?
Bradford vs Colchester kicked off at 19:45 on Wednesday 8 December 2021 at The Utilita Energy Stadium.
What was the final score in Bradford vs Colchester?
Bradford 0 - 0 Colchester.
Where is Bradford vs Colchester being played?
The match is being played at The Utilita Energy Stadium.
What competition is Bradford vs Colchester part of?
Bradford vs Colchester is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Bradford vs Colchester?
Our statistical model gives Bradford a 48% chance of winning, Colchester a 21% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Bradford the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bradford vs Colchester?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Bradford and Colchester will score (BTTS).
Will Bradford vs Colchester have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bradford and Colchester?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Bradford and Colchester in?
Bradford (all comps): 2W-6D-2L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-D-D-L-D. Colchester (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Bradford's attack rating (1.07) and Colchester's defence rating (1.28), the model arrives at 1.47 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Colchester's attack (0.64x) against Bradford's defence (1.22x) — and the away total comes out at 0.91.
These ratings are built from 19/18 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.0%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.0%), 0-0 (10.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bradford Win
48%
2.11
31%
3.18
21%
4.75
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
2 – 0
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.47
Bradford xG
Total xG
2.38
0.91
Colchester xG
2.11
48%
Home win
3.18
31%
Draw
4.75
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.06
51%
BTTS No
1.94
Clean Sheet
40%
2.49
23%
4.33
Win to Nil
19%
5.25
5%
20.57
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.3 | 8.5 | 3.9 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 13.6 | 12.4 | 5.7 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.9 | 9.1 | 4.2 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.9 | 4.4 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.8 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bradford vs Colchester?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Bradford and Colchester expected to score?
The model projects 1.47 expected goals for Bradford and 0.91 for Colchester, a combined total of 2.38.
How confident is the prediction model for Bradford vs Colchester?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Bradford's recent record stands at 5W 8D 5L from 18 games, a 1.28 PPG return, with D-D-D-L-D in the last five. The sample for Bradford is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Colchester, meanwhile, have gone 5W 6D 7L across 18 games — 1.17 PPG, with L-W-L-W-D in their last five. The sample for Colchester is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.28 PPG for Bradford against 1.17 for Colchester. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Bradford have managed 2W 5D 1L from 8 games — 1.38 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Colchester's away record stands at 2W 3D 3L across 8 trips, a 1.12 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Bradford are averaging 1.39 goals scored and 1.28 conceded per game recently; Colchester are on 0.89 scored and 1.22 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Bradford have seen both teams score in 78% of their recent games.
Last 18 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bradford
Blended
Colchester
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bradford and Colchester in coming into this match?
Bradford have gone 5W 8D 5L in their last 18 games (1.28 PPG), while Colchester have gone 5W 6D 7L in their last 18 (1.17 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bradford at home or Colchester away?
Bradford's home record (1.38 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bradford at home: 1.38 PPG; Colchester away: 1.12 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in League Two. It has been a while since the last meeting — 22 March 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Colchester won 3-0 on 18 Apr 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Bradford have gone 3W 1D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Colchester — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Bradford
3
Draws
2
Colchester
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bradford and Colchester?
From 8 meetings on record, Bradford have won 3, Colchester have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Bradford and Colchester last play each other?
They last met on 22 March 2025, when Bradford 4-1 Colchester.
Who has won more matches between Bradford and Colchester?
Bradford have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Bradford are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Colchester are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bradford 88%, Colchester 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Bradford) and 38% (Colchester).
On the defensive side: Colchester in 62%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bradford home games / Colchester away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bradford play Colchester?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 88% of Bradford's games and 38% of Colchester's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Bradford vs Colchester usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Bradford's recent games and 38% of Colchester's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bradford and Colchester tend to score early?
Bradford have had a goal before half-time in 88% of their recent matches, Colchester in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Bradford's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bradford and Colchester finished level at 0-0 at The Utilita Energy Stadium, Regular Season - 20, in the League Two. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bradford 1.47 xG and Colchester 0.91 xG, a combined 2.38. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Bradford fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Colchester landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bradford attack 1.07 / defence 1.22 against Colchester attack 0.64 / defence 1.28, drawn from 19/18 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bradford 48% | Draw 31% | Colchester 21%, with Bradford to win its most likely call at 48%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 71% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bradford 44%, Colchester 33%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bradford's trading profile (18 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 78% of their matches — today it did not.
Colchester's trading profile (18 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 44% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Bradford 1.28 PPG, Colchester 1.17 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Bradford (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.62 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.25 average — tighter than their form line. Colchester (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.25 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.