AFC Wimbledon 0-1 Walsall – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates AFC Wimbledon at 46% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as AFC Wimbledon face Walsall.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
AFC Wimbledon welcome Walsall to The Cherry Red Records Stadium in League Two (matchday 17). Kick-off is Saturday 23 November 2024 at 15:00 UK time.
Form Guide
AFC Wimbledon — last 10 games: 4W 2D 4L, averaging 1.40 points per game. Last five: W L L W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
At home, AFC Wimbledon have gone 7W 2D 1L in their last 10 home games (2.30 PPG). They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. Their home PPG of 2.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — AFC Wimbledon are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Across their last 10 games, Walsall have recorded 5W 3D 2L — 1.80 PPG. Last five: D W W D D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Walsall have gone 4W 2D 4L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — AFC Wimbledon at 1.40 PPG versus Walsall's 1.80. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
The H2H picture is flat: the 4 H2H matches we hold have produced 3 wins for AFC Wimbledon, 1 for Walsall and 0 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 4 H2H matches in our data averaged 4.0 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 27 Apr 2024, ended AFC Wimbledon 5–1 Walsall — a AFC Wimbledon win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 4.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
AFC Wimbledon in-play tendencies (last 60 games, 30 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 70% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; of the 20 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Walsall in-play tendencies (last 60 games, 30 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 80% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 65% of those occasions; of the 18 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 28%; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — AFC Wimbledon 42% versus Walsall 65%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (AFC Wimbledon 40% | Walsall 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects AFC Wimbledon 1.50 xG and Walsall 1.12 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: AFC Wimbledon attack 1.368 / defence 0.799 | Walsall attack 1.132 / defence 0.892. League average goals — home 1.233 / away 1.237. AFC Wimbledon carry an above-average attack rating of 1.368 — their 1.50 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. AFC Wimbledon have a tight defence (rating 0.799), which is pulling Walsall's projected output down. Data: built from AFC Wimbledon's last 60 games and Walsall's last 60.
Result probabilities: AFC Wimbledon 46% | Draw 26% | Walsall 28%. Fair-value odds: AFC Wimbledon 2.18 | Draw 3.84 | Walsall 3.57. AFC Wimbledon hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS Yes probability 53% | Total xG 2.62. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.62 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 53% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, AFC Wimbledon are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on AFC Wimbledon offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.62 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 51% probability — low conviction — though recent form (AFC Wimbledon's last 10 home games and Walsall's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 4.0 goals per game across 4 H2H matches point the other way.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: AFC Wimbledon 40% (last 10 home games) | Walsall 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: AFC Wimbledon vs Walsall | Competition: League Two, matchday 17 | Venue: The Cherry Red Records Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 23 November 2024 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: AFC Wimbledon 46% | Draw 26% | Walsall 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% (Under 51%) | BTTS Yes 53% (No 47%) | xG AFC Wimbledon 1.50 / Walsall 1.12 • Poisson strength factors: AFC Wimbledon attack 1.368 / def 0.799 | Walsall attack 1.132 / def 0.892 | league avg home 1.233 / away 1.237 • Poisson stance: AFC Wimbledon (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.50
AFC Wimbledon xG
Expected Goals
1.12
Walsall xG
53%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ AFC Wimbledon vs Walsall FAQs
What time does AFC Wimbledon vs Walsall kick off?
AFC Wimbledon vs Walsall kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Saturday 23 November 2024 at The Cherry Red Records Stadium.
What was the final score in AFC Wimbledon vs Walsall?
AFC Wimbledon 0 - 1 Walsall.
Where is AFC Wimbledon vs Walsall being played?
The match is being played at The Cherry Red Records Stadium.
What competition is AFC Wimbledon vs Walsall part of?
AFC Wimbledon vs Walsall is a League Two fixture (matchday 17) (England).
Who is favourite to win AFC Wimbledon vs Walsall?
Our statistical model gives AFC Wimbledon a 46% chance of winning, Walsall a 28% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making AFC Wimbledon the favourite.
Will both teams score in AFC Wimbledon vs Walsall?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both AFC Wimbledon and Walsall will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will AFC Wimbledon vs Walsall have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (51%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from AFC Wimbledon's attack rating (1.37) and Walsall's defence rating (0.89), the model arrives at 1.50 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Walsall's attack versus AFC Wimbledon's defence, projects 1.12 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from AFC Wimbledon's last 60 games and Walsall's last 60 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.8%. Close behind: 1-0 (9.3%), 2-1 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
AFC Wimbledon Win
46%
2.18
26%
3.84
28%
3.57
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.9%
Home win
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.50
AFC Wimbledon xG
Total xG
2.62
1.12
Walsall xG
2.18
46%
Home win
3.84
26%
Draw
3.57
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.90
47%
BTTS No
2.11
Clean Sheet
33%
3.06
22%
4.50
Win to Nil
15%
6.66
6%
16.05
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.3 | 8.1 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.9 | 12.2 | 6.8 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.2 | 9.2 | 5.1 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 4.6 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ AFC Wimbledon vs Walsall Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for AFC Wimbledon vs Walsall?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are AFC Wimbledon and Walsall expected to score?
The model projects 1.50 expected goals for AFC Wimbledon and 1.12 for Walsall, a combined total of 2.62.
How confident is the prediction model for AFC Wimbledon vs Walsall?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 60 outings, AFC Wimbledon have picked up 1.47 PPG on a 24W 16D 20L record — W-L-L-W-D across the most recent five.
Walsall's form line: 26W 14D 20L from 60 games, 1.53 PPG, last five D-W-W-D-D.
Form-wise this is close to level: AFC Wimbledon on 1.47 PPG, Walsall on 1.53. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, AFC Wimbledon have posted 1.83 PPG from their last 30 home games (16W 7D 7L).
On the road, Walsall have gone 9W 7D 14L from their last 30 away games — 1.13 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.53 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Walsall's recent record.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, AFC Wimbledon come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
AFC Wimbledon are averaging 1.45 goals scored and 1.07 conceded per game recently; Walsall are on 1.60 scored and 1.47 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Walsall in 65%.
Defensively: AFC Wimbledon have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 60 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
AFC Wimbledon
Blended
Walsall
Blended
AFC Wimbledon (Home) vs Walsall (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
AFC Wimbledon
Blended
Walsall
Blended
❓ AFC Wimbledon vs Walsall Form FAQs
What form are AFC Wimbledon and Walsall in coming into this match?
AFC Wimbledon have gone 24W 16D 20L in their last 60 games (1.47 PPG), while Walsall have gone 26W 14D 20L in their last 60 (1.53 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — AFC Wimbledon at home or Walsall away?
AFC Wimbledon's home record (1.83 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — AFC Wimbledon at home: 1.83 PPG; Walsall away: 1.13 PPG.
Have AFC Wimbledon or Walsall been keeping clean sheets recently?
AFC Wimbledon have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, Walsall in 20%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 7 H2H matches in our data, going back to October 2022. All of them came in League Two. The most recent in our data was on 26 May 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 27 Apr 2024, when AFC Wimbledon won AFC Wimbledon 5-1 Walsall.
AFC Wimbledon's record when hosting Walsall specifically: 3W 0D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 7 Meetings
4
AFC Wimbledon
1
Draws
2
Walsall
Recent Meetings
❓ AFC Wimbledon vs Walsall H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between AFC Wimbledon and Walsall?
Across the 7 head-to-head matches in our data, AFC Wimbledon have won 4, Walsall have won 2, and 1 has been drawn.
When did AFC Wimbledon and Walsall last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 26 May 2025: AFC Wimbledon 1-0 Walsall.
Who has won more matches between AFC Wimbledon and Walsall?
AFC Wimbledon have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 7 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
AFC Wimbledon are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 40% of those situations.
Walsall are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 23% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — AFC Wimbledon 47%, Walsall 63% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (AFC Wimbledon) and 63% (Walsall). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 43% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: AFC Wimbledon keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches; Walsall in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = AFC Wimbledon home games / Walsall away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ AFC Wimbledon vs Walsall Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in AFC Wimbledon and Walsall matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 47% of AFC Wimbledon's games and 63% of Walsall's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are AFC Wimbledon and Walsall matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 47% of AFC Wimbledon's matches and 63% of Walsall's.
Do AFC Wimbledon and Walsall matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 70% of AFC Wimbledon's recent matches and 80% of Walsall's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Walsall defy the odds to beat AFC Wimbledon 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Walsall beat AFC Wimbledon 0-1 at The Cherry Red Records Stadium, Regular Season - 17, in the League Two. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting AFC Wimbledon 1.50 xG and Walsall 1.12 xG, a combined 2.62. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. AFC Wimbledon fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AFC Wimbledon attack 1.37 / defence 0.80 against Walsall attack 1.13 / defence 0.89, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it AFC Wimbledon 46% | Draw 26% | Walsall 28%, with AFC Wimbledon to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual Walsall win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 74% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AFC Wimbledon 40%, Walsall 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
AFC Wimbledon's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Walsall's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — AFC Wimbledon 1.47 PPG, Walsall 1.53 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Walsall win broke the near-deadlock. AFC Wimbledon (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.93 scoring average — below par going forward. Walsall (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.77 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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