AFC Wimbledon 1-0 Salford City – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates AFC Wimbledon at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this AFC Wimbledon vs Salford City fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a League Two clash, Regular Season - 43 as AFC Wimbledon welcome Salford City to The Cherry Red Records Stadium. Kick-off is set for Saturday 6 April 2024 at 15:00 UTC.
Form Guide
AFC Wimbledon — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 League Two outings this season, averaging 1.20 points per game. Last five: W L D D L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 0.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.
AFC Wimbledon's form when playing at home: 5W 3D 2L across 10 games at The Cherry Red Records Stadium this term (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — AFC Wimbledon are significantly better at The Cherry Red Records Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Salford City stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 League Two matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D W W L L. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 2.20. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
Salford City's away record: 3W 2D 5L from 10 road trips in League Two this season (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.20 PPG (AFC Wimbledon) versus 1.10 (Salford City). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for AFC Wimbledon, 1 for Salford City and 2 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.7 per contest from 3 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 16 Dec 2023, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.7 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
AFC Wimbledon in-play tendencies (88 games, 44 at home): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
Salford City in-play tendencies (88 games, 44 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — AFC Wimbledon 48% versus Salford City 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (AFC Wimbledon 39% | Salford City 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects AFC Wimbledon 1.56 xG and Salford City 1.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: AFC Wimbledon attack 0.927 / defence 0.825 | Salford City attack 0.982 / defence 1.171. League average goals — home 1.441 / away 1.286. Data: 88 AFC Wimbledon games / 88 Salford City games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: AFC Wimbledon 49% | Draw 27% | Salford City 24%. Fair-value odds: AFC Wimbledon 2.04 | Draw 3.70 | Salford City 4.17. AFC Wimbledon hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.61. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.61 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is AFC Wimbledon at 49% — moderate model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on AFC Wimbledon offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.61 combined xG gives a 48% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by H2H averaging 1.7 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: AFC Wimbledon 40% | Salford City 80% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: AFC Wimbledon vs Salford City | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 43 | Venue: The Cherry Red Records Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 6 Apr 2024, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: AFC Wimbledon 49% | Draw 27% | Salford City 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 52% | xG AFC Wimbledon 1.56 / Salford City 1.04 • Poisson strength factors: AFC Wimbledon attack 0.927 / def 0.825 | Salford City attack 0.982 / def 1.171 | league avg home 1.441 / away 1.286 • Poisson stance: AFC Wimbledon (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.56
AFC Wimbledon xG
Expected Goals
1.04
Salford City xG
52%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does AFC Wimbledon vs Salford City kick off?
AFC Wimbledon vs Salford City kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 6 April 2024 at The Cherry Red Records Stadium.
What was the final score in AFC Wimbledon vs Salford City?
AFC Wimbledon 1 - 0 Salford City.
Where is AFC Wimbledon vs Salford City being played?
The match is being played at The Cherry Red Records Stadium.
What competition is AFC Wimbledon vs Salford City part of?
AFC Wimbledon vs Salford City is a Regular Season - 43 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win AFC Wimbledon vs Salford City?
Our statistical model gives AFC Wimbledon a 49% chance of winning, Salford City a 24% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making AFC Wimbledon the favourite.
Will both teams score in AFC Wimbledon vs Salford City?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both AFC Wimbledon and Salford City will score (BTTS).
Will AFC Wimbledon vs Salford City have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between AFC Wimbledon and Salford City?
Record (3 meetings): AFC Wimbledon 0W | Draws 2 | Salford City 1W.
What form are AFC Wimbledon and Salford City in?
AFC Wimbledon (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-L-D-D-L. Salford City (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 2.20 | L5 D-W-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
AFC Wimbledon's attacking strength (0.93x league average) is weighed against Salford City's defensive record (1.17x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.56. The same calculation in reverse, Salford City's attack versus AFC Wimbledon's defence, projects 1.04 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 88/88 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.6%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.0%), 2-1 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
AFC Wimbledon Win
49%
2.06
27%
3.71
24%
4.10
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.6%
Home win
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.56
AFC Wimbledon xG
Total xG
2.61
1.04
Salford City xG
2.06
49%
Home win
3.71
27%
Draw
4.10
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.92
48%
BTTS No
2.08
Clean Sheet
35%
2.83
21%
4.78
Win to Nil
17%
5.82
5%
19.62
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.4 | 7.7 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.6 | 12.0 | 6.3 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.0 | 9.4 | 4.9 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.7 | 4.9 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.8 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for AFC Wimbledon vs Salford City?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are AFC Wimbledon and Salford City expected to score?
The model projects 1.56 expected goals for AFC Wimbledon and 1.04 for Salford City, a combined total of 2.61.
How confident is the prediction model for AFC Wimbledon vs Salford City?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
AFC Wimbledon's recent record stands at 26W 29D 33L from 88 games, a 1.22 PPG return, with W-L-D-D-L in the last five.
Salford City, meanwhile, have gone 34W 19D 35L across 88 games — 1.38 PPG, with D-W-W-L-L in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: AFC Wimbledon on 1.22 PPG, Salford City on 1.38. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, AFC Wimbledon have managed 16W 13D 15L from 44 games — 1.39 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Salford City's away record stands at 19W 7D 18L across 44 trips, a 1.45 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
AFC Wimbledon are averaging 1.16 goals scored and 1.18 conceded per game recently; Salford City are on 1.52 scored and 1.51 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Salford City in 62%.
Last 88 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
AFC Wimbledon
Current Season
Salford City
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are AFC Wimbledon and Salford City in coming into this match?
AFC Wimbledon have gone 26W 29D 33L in their last 88 games (1.22 PPG), while Salford City have gone 34W 19D 35L in their last 88 (1.38 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — AFC Wimbledon at home or Salford City away?
Salford City's away record (1.45 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — AFC Wimbledon at home: 1.39 PPG; Salford City away: 1.45 PPG.
Have AFC Wimbledon or Salford City been keeping clean sheets recently?
AFC Wimbledon have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Salford City in 20%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in League Two. It has been a while since the last meeting — 15 February 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
AFC Wimbledon's record when hosting Salford City specifically: 2W 0D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
AFC Wimbledon
2
Draws
2
Salford City
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between AFC Wimbledon and Salford City?
From 6 meetings on record, AFC Wimbledon have won 2, Salford City have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did AFC Wimbledon and Salford City last play each other?
They last met on 15 February 2025, when AFC Wimbledon 1-0 Salford City.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
AFC Wimbledon are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Salford City are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — AFC Wimbledon 50%, Salford City 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 36% (AFC Wimbledon) and 59% (Salford City).
On the defensive side: AFC Wimbledon have failed to score in 27% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = AFC Wimbledon home games / Salford City away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when AFC Wimbledon play Salford City?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of AFC Wimbledon's games and 64% of Salford City's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is AFC Wimbledon vs Salford City usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 36% of AFC Wimbledon's recent games and 59% of Salford City's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do AFC Wimbledon and Salford City tend to score early?
AFC Wimbledon have had a goal before half-time in 66% of their recent matches, Salford City in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as AFC Wimbledon edge out Salford City 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
AFC Wimbledon beat Salford City 1-0 at The Cherry Red Records Stadium, Regular Season - 43, in the League Two. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting AFC Wimbledon 1.56 xG and Salford City 1.04 xG, a combined 2.61. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Salford City landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AFC Wimbledon attack 0.93 / defence 0.82 against Salford City attack 0.98 / defence 1.17, drawn from 88/88 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it AFC Wimbledon 49% | Draw 27% | Salford City 24%, with AFC Wimbledon to win its most likely call at 49%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 74% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AFC Wimbledon 39%, Salford City 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
AFC Wimbledon's trading profile (88 games, 44 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Salford City's trading profile (88 games, 44 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — AFC Wimbledon 1.22 PPG, Salford City 1.38 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the AFC Wimbledon win broke the near-deadlock. AFC Wimbledon (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.23 average — tighter than their form line. Salford City (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.66 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.