Accrington ST 3-4 Swindon Town – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Accrington ST at 50% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Accrington ST vs Swindon Town encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A League Two encounter, Regular Season - 20 sees Swindon Town travel to Wham Stadium to take on Accrington ST. The game is scheduled for Tuesday 28 November 2023, 19:45 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Accrington ST stand at 5W 1D 4L from 10 League Two matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W L L W L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Accrington ST, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Accrington ST at Wham Stadium this season: 6W 1D 3L from 10 home games — 1.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
Swindon Town — All Games: 2W 2D 6L from 10 League Two fixtures this season — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L L L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Swindon Town, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Swindon Town have gone 1W 5D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Accrington ST are in the better shape of the two on current League Two data — 0.80 PPG ahead (1.60 vs 0.80). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
In-Play Profile
Accrington ST in-play tendencies (65 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
Swindon Town in-play tendencies (65 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Accrington ST 45% versus Swindon Town 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Accrington ST 49% | Swindon Town 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Accrington ST 1.77 xG and Swindon Town 1.24 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Accrington ST attack 0.931 / defence 0.979 | Swindon Town attack 1.006 / defence 1.211. League average goals — home 1.568 / away 1.261. Swindon Town bring a strong defensive rating of 1.211 — this is suppressing Accrington ST's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 19 Accrington ST games / 65 Swindon Town games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Accrington ST 50% | Draw 23% | Swindon Town 27%. Fair-value odds: Accrington ST 2.00 | Draw 4.35 | Swindon Town 3.70. Accrington ST hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 3.01. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.01 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Accrington ST as the most likely outcome at 50% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Accrington ST offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.01 combined xG gives a 58% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 59% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Accrington ST 50% | Swindon Town 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Accrington ST vs Swindon Town | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Wham Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 28 Nov 2023, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Accrington ST 50% | Draw 23% | Swindon Town 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 59% | xG Accrington ST 1.77 / Swindon Town 1.24 • Poisson strength factors: Accrington ST attack 0.931 / def 0.979 | Swindon Town attack 1.006 / def 1.211 | league avg home 1.568 / away 1.261 • Poisson stance: Accrington ST (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.77
Accrington ST xG
Expected Goals
1.24
Swindon Town xG
59%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Accrington ST vs Swindon Town kick off?
Accrington ST vs Swindon Town kicked off at 19:45 on Tuesday 28 November 2023 at Wham Stadium.
What was the final score in Accrington ST vs Swindon Town?
Accrington ST 3 - 4 Swindon Town.
Where is Accrington ST vs Swindon Town being played?
The match is being played at Wham Stadium.
What competition is Accrington ST vs Swindon Town part of?
Accrington ST vs Swindon Town is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Accrington ST vs Swindon Town?
Our statistical model gives Accrington ST a 50% chance of winning, Swindon Town a 27% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Accrington ST the favourite.
Will both teams score in Accrington ST vs Swindon Town?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Accrington ST and Swindon Town will score (BTTS).
Will Accrington ST vs Swindon Town have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Accrington ST and Swindon Town?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Accrington ST and Swindon Town in?
Accrington ST (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-L-W-L. Swindon Town (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Accrington ST's attack at 0.93x the league average against Swindon Town's defence at 1.21x — combine the two and it projects 1.77 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Swindon Town's attack versus Accrington ST's defence, projects 1.24 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 19/65 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 2-0 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Accrington ST Win
50%
2.01
23%
4.28
27%
3.72
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
1 – 0
8.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.77
Accrington ST xG
Total xG
3.01
1.24
Swindon Town xG
2.01
50%
Home win
4.28
23%
Draw
3.72
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.70
41%
BTTS No
2.44
Clean Sheet
29%
3.46
17%
5.86
Win to Nil
14%
6.95
5%
21.79
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.9 | 6.1 | 3.8 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.7 | 10.8 | 6.7 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 9.6 | 5.9 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.5 | 5.6 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.0 | 2.5 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Accrington ST vs Swindon Town?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.2%.
How many goals are Accrington ST and Swindon Town expected to score?
The model projects 1.77 expected goals for Accrington ST and 1.24 for Swindon Town, a combined total of 3.01.
How confident is the prediction model for Accrington ST vs Swindon Town?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Accrington ST come into this having played 65 games, going 20W 13D 32L for 1.12 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L-W-L. The sample for Accrington ST is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Swindon Town sit at 1.35 PPG from 65 outings (23W 19D 23L), a run that reads L-L-L-D-W across their last five. The sample for Swindon Town is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Accrington ST on 1.12 PPG, Swindon Town on 1.35. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Accrington ST's home form reads 12W 6D 15L across 33 games on their own ground, a 1.27 PPG return.
Away from home, Swindon Town have taken 1.09 points per game from 33 outings (8W 12D 13L).
The Goals Picture
Accrington ST are averaging 1.03 goals scored and 1.57 conceded per game recently; Swindon Town are on 1.54 scored and 1.35 conceded.
Last 65 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Accrington ST
Blended
Swindon Town
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Accrington ST and Swindon Town in coming into this match?
Accrington ST have gone 20W 13D 32L in their last 65 games (1.12 PPG), while Swindon Town have gone 23W 19D 23L in their last 65 (1.35 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Accrington ST at home or Swindon Town away?
Accrington ST's home record (1.27 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Accrington ST at home: 1.27 PPG; Swindon Town away: 1.09 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Accrington ST and Swindon Town runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in League Two. They last met on 18 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 18 Oct 2025, when Accrington ST won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Accrington ST's record when hosting Swindon Town specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Accrington ST
3
Draws
1
Swindon Town
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Accrington ST and Swindon Town?
From 6 meetings on record, Accrington ST have won 2, Swindon Town have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Accrington ST and Swindon Town last play each other?
They last met on 18 April 2026, when Swindon Town 2-2 Accrington ST.
Who has won more matches between Accrington ST and Swindon Town?
Accrington ST have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Accrington ST are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Swindon Town are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Accrington ST 48%, Swindon Town 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Accrington ST) and 54% (Swindon Town).
On the defensive side: Accrington ST have failed to score in 30% of games; Swindon Town in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Accrington ST home games / Swindon Town away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Accrington ST play Swindon Town?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 48% of Accrington ST's games and 67% of Swindon Town's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Accrington ST vs Swindon Town usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Accrington ST's recent games and 54% of Swindon Town's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Accrington ST and Swindon Town tend to score early?
Accrington ST have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Swindon Town in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Swindon Town defy the odds to beat Accrington ST 3-4.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Swindon Town beat Accrington ST 3-4 at Wham Stadium, Regular Season - 20, in the League Two. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Accrington ST 1.77 xG and Swindon Town 1.24 xG, a combined 3.01. The scoreboard read 3-4 for 7 actual goals. Accrington ST beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Swindon Town outscored their 1.24 projection by 2.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Accrington ST attack 0.93 / defence 0.98 against Swindon Town attack 1.01 / defence 1.21, drawn from 19/65 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Accrington ST 50% | Draw 23% | Swindon Town 27%, with Accrington ST to win its most likely call at 50%. The actual Swindon Town win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 35% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Accrington ST 49%, Swindon Town 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Accrington ST's trading profile (65 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did.
Swindon Town's trading profile (65 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Accrington ST 1.12 PPG, Swindon Town 1.35 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Swindon Town win broke the near-deadlock. Accrington ST (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.30 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 1.52 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Swindon Town (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.39 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.58 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.