Accrington ST 2-0 Crewe – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Crewe at 50% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Accrington ST vs Crewe encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Accrington ST host Crewe at The Wham Stadium in League Two, Regular Season - 41. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 3 April 2026 at 15:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all League Two games this season, Accrington ST have gone 1W 2D 7L from 10 outings — a 0.50 PPG return. Last five: D D L L L. They are averaging 0.30 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.
At home at The Wham Stadium, Accrington ST have gone 4W 1D 5L this season (10 games, 1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.50 — Accrington ST are significantly better at The Wham Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Crewe — All Games: 6W 1D 3L from 10 League Two fixtures this season — 1.90 PPG. Last five: L L D W W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Crewe's away record: 3W 3D 4L from 10 road trips in League Two this season (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Crewe — 1.40 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.90 vs 0.50). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 7 previous meetings, Accrington ST have won 3, Crewe 2, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 9 Aug 2025, ended 0–2 with Crewe winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Accrington ST in-play and half-time data (85 games, 42 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
Crewe in-play and half-time data (85 games, 42 at away): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Accrington ST 46% versus Crewe 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Accrington ST 42% | Crewe 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Accrington ST 0.84 xG and Crewe 1.39 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Accrington ST attack 0.752 / defence 1.065 | Crewe attack 1.125 / defence 0.924. League average goals — home 1.215 / away 1.158. Accrington ST's attack strength of 0.752 is below the league average — the 0.84 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 85 Accrington ST games / 86 Crewe games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Accrington ST 23% | Draw 28% | Crewe 50%. Fair-value odds: Accrington ST 4.35 | Draw 3.57 | Crewe 2.00. Crewe hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.23. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.23 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Crewe at 50% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Crewe offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.23 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 39% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 43%. Form rates corroborate: Accrington ST 30% | Crewe 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Accrington ST vs Crewe | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 41 | Venue: The Wham Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 3 Apr 2026, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Accrington ST 23% | Draw 28% | Crewe 50% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 43% | xG Accrington ST 0.84 / Crewe 1.39 • Poisson strength factors: Accrington ST attack 0.752 / def 1.065 | Crewe attack 1.125 / def 0.924 | league avg home 1.215 / away 1.158 • Poisson stance: Crewe (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.84
Accrington ST xG
Expected Goals
1.39
Crewe xG
43%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Accrington ST vs Crewe kick off?
Accrington ST vs Crewe kicked off at 15:00 on Friday 3 April 2026 at The Wham Stadium.
What was the final score in Accrington ST vs Crewe?
Accrington ST 2 - 0 Crewe.
Where is Accrington ST vs Crewe being played?
The match is being played at The Wham Stadium.
What competition is Accrington ST vs Crewe part of?
Accrington ST vs Crewe is a Regular Season - 41 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Accrington ST vs Crewe?
Our statistical model gives Accrington ST a 23% chance of winning, Crewe a 50% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Crewe the favourite.
Will both teams score in Accrington ST vs Crewe?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Accrington ST and Crewe will score (BTTS).
Will Accrington ST vs Crewe have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Accrington ST and Crewe?
Record (7 meetings): Accrington ST 3W | Draws 2 | Crewe 2W.
What form are Accrington ST and Crewe in?
Accrington ST (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.30 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-D-L-L-L. Crewe (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-L-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Accrington ST's attacking strength (0.75x league average) is weighed against Crewe's defensive record (0.92x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.84. The same calculation in reverse, Crewe's attack versus Accrington ST's defence, projects 1.39 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 85/86 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.2%. Close behind: 0-1 (13.2%), 0-0 (12.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Crewe Win
23%
4.38
28%
3.64
50%
2.01
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.9%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
0 – 0
10.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.84
Accrington ST xG
Total xG
2.23
1.39
Crewe xG
4.38
23%
Home win
3.64
28%
Draw
2.01
50%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.34
57%
BTTS No
1.75
Clean Sheet
25%
4.01
43%
2.33
Win to Nil
6%
17.54
21%
4.69
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.7 | 14.9 | 10.3 | 4.8 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 9.1 | 12.6 | 8.7 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 3.8 | 5.3 | 3.7 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.1 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Accrington ST vs Crewe?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Accrington ST and Crewe expected to score?
The model projects 0.84 expected goals for Accrington ST and 1.39 for Crewe, a combined total of 2.23.
How confident is the prediction model for Accrington ST vs Crewe?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 85 outings, Accrington ST have picked up 1.15 PPG on a 25W 23D 37L record — D-D-L-L-L across the most recent five.
Crewe's form line: 33W 26D 26L from 85 games, 1.47 PPG, last five L-L-D-W-W.
Form-wise this is close to level: Accrington ST on 1.15 PPG, Crewe on 1.47. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Accrington ST have posted 1.26 PPG from 42 outings (13W 14D 15L).
On the road, Crewe have gone 13W 16D 13L from 42 away games — 1.31 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Accrington ST are averaging 1.07 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Crewe are on 1.28 scored and 1.12 conceded.
Last 85 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Accrington ST
Current Season
Crewe
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Accrington ST and Crewe in coming into this match?
Accrington ST have gone 25W 23D 37L in their last 85 games (1.15 PPG), while Crewe have gone 33W 26D 26L in their last 85 (1.47 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Accrington ST at home or Crewe away?
Crewe's away record (1.31 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Accrington ST at home: 1.26 PPG; Crewe away: 1.31 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — League One, League Two all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 3 April 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 12 Feb 2022, when Accrington ST won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Accrington ST's record when hosting Crewe specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Accrington ST
2
Draws
2
Crewe
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Accrington ST and Crewe?
From 8 meetings on record, Accrington ST have won 4, Crewe have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Accrington ST and Crewe last play each other?
They last met on 3 April 2026, when Accrington ST 2-0 Crewe.
Who has won more matches between Accrington ST and Crewe?
Accrington ST have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Accrington ST are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Crewe see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Accrington ST 45%, Crewe 55% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Accrington ST) and 36% (Crewe).
On the defensive side: Accrington ST have failed to score in 36% of games; Crewe in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Accrington ST home games / Crewe away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Accrington ST play Crewe?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 45% of Accrington ST's recent matches and 55% of Crewe's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Accrington ST vs Crewe usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Accrington ST's recent games and 36% of Crewe's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Accrington ST and Crewe tend to score early?
Accrington ST have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Crewe in 57% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Accrington ST cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Crewe.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Accrington ST beat Crewe 2-0 at The Wham Stadium, Regular Season - 41, in the League Two. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Accrington ST 0.84 xG and Crewe 1.39 xG, a combined 2.23. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Accrington ST beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Crewe landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Accrington ST attack 0.75 / defence 1.06 against Crewe attack 1.12 / defence 0.92, drawn from 85/86 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Accrington ST 23% | Draw 28% | Crewe 50%, with Crewe to win its most likely call at 50%. Instead the game produced a Accrington ST win, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Accrington ST 42%, Crewe 42%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Accrington ST's trading profile (85 games, 42 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not.
Crewe's trading profile (85 games, 42 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Accrington ST 1.15 PPG, Crewe 1.47 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Accrington ST win broke the near-deadlock. Accrington ST (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.12 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.19 average — tighter than their form line. Crewe (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.12 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.02 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.