Wigan 2-0 Crewe – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Wigan at 64% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Wigan vs Crewe encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Wigan and Crewe meet at DW Stadium in League One, Regular Season - 31. This fixture gets under way on Tuesday 15 February 2022 at 19:45 UTC.
Current Form
Wigan's overall League One record this term: 6W 3D 1L from 10 games (2.10 PPG). Last five: W D D L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Wigan at DW Stadium this season: 5W 2D 3L from 10 home games — 1.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Crewe have collected 0.70 PPG across 10 League One outings this season: 2W 1D 7L. Last five: L L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Crewe's away record: 1W 0D 9L from 10 road trips in League One this season (0.30 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form ledger tips toward Wigan. A 1.40 PPG lead over Crewe (2.10 vs 0.70) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Wigan have seen both teams score in 80% of their games, Crewe in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Trading Data
Wigan goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (28 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Crewe goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (28 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 80% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Wigan 64% versus Crewe 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Wigan 57% | Crewe 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Wigan 2.01 xG and Crewe 0.85 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Wigan attack 1.123 / defence 1.126 | Crewe attack 0.613 / defence 1.621. League average goals — home 1.102 / away 1.230. Crewe bring a strong defensive rating of 1.621 — this is suppressing Wigan's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 28 Wigan games / 31 Crewe games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Wigan 64% | Draw 21% | Crewe 15%. Fair-value odds: Wigan 1.56 | Draw 4.76 | Crewe 6.67. The model has a clear lean to Wigan (64%) — a 49pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.86. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.86 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Wigan at 64% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.86 combined xG gives a 54% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 50%. This conflicts with form data: Wigan 80% | Crewe 60% from recent games — a notable divergence.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Wigan vs Crewe | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 31 | Venue: DW Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 15 Feb 2022, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Wigan 64% | Draw 21% | Crewe 15% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 50% | xG Wigan 2.01 / Crewe 0.85 • Poisson strength factors: Wigan attack 1.123 / def 1.126 | Crewe attack 0.613 / def 1.621 | league avg home 1.102 / away 1.230 • Poisson stance: Wigan (64%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.01
Wigan xG
Expected Goals
0.85
Crewe xG
50%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Wigan vs Crewe kick off?
Wigan vs Crewe kicked off at 19:45 on Tuesday 15 February 2022 at DW Stadium.
What was the final score in Wigan vs Crewe?
Wigan 2 - 0 Crewe.
Where is Wigan vs Crewe being played?
The match is being played at DW Stadium.
What competition is Wigan vs Crewe part of?
Wigan vs Crewe is a Regular Season - 31 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Wigan vs Crewe?
Our statistical model gives Wigan a 64% chance of winning, Crewe a 15% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Wigan the favourite.
Will both teams score in Wigan vs Crewe?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Wigan and Crewe will score (BTTS).
Will Wigan vs Crewe have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Wigan and Crewe?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Wigan and Crewe in?
Wigan (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-D-D-L-W. Crewe (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Wigan's attack rating (1.12) and Crewe's defence rating (1.62), the model arrives at 2.01 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Crewe's attack (0.61x) against Wigan's defence (1.13x) — and the away total comes out at 0.85.
These ratings are built from 28/31 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.6%. Close behind: 1-1 (11.1%), 1-0 (10.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Wigan Win
64%
1.56
21%
4.74
15%
6.77
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
11.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
11.5%
Home win
1 – 1
9.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.01
Wigan xG
Total xG
2.86
0.85
Crewe xG
1.56
64%
Home win
4.74
21%
Draw
6.77
15%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.01
50%
BTTS No
1.99
Clean Sheet
43%
2.34
13%
7.44
Win to Nil
27%
3.64
2%
50.34
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7 | 4.9 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 11.5 | 9.8 | 4.2 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.6 | 9.8 | 4.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 7.7 | 6.6 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.9 | 3.3 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.6 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Wigan vs Crewe?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.6%.
How many goals are Wigan and Crewe expected to score?
The model projects 2.01 expected goals for Wigan and 0.85 for Crewe, a combined total of 2.86.
How confident is the prediction model for Wigan vs Crewe?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 64%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Wigan's recent record stands at 18W 5D 5L from 28 games, a 2.11 PPG return, with W-D-D-L-W in the last five.
Crewe, meanwhile, have gone 5W 6D 17L across 28 games — 0.75 PPG, with L-L-L-L-L in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Wigan by 1.36 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Crewe heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Wigan have managed 8W 3D 3L from 14 games — 1.93 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Crewe's away record stands at 1W 3D 10L across 14 trips, a 0.43 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Wigan come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Wigan are averaging 1.79 goals scored and 0.96 conceded per game recently; Crewe are on 0.89 scored and 1.86 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Wigan have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games.
Last 28 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Wigan
Current Season
Crewe
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Wigan and Crewe in coming into this match?
Wigan have gone 18W 5D 5L in their last 28 games (2.11 PPG), while Crewe have gone 5W 6D 17L in their last 28 (0.75 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Wigan at home or Crewe away?
Wigan's home record (1.93 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Wigan at home: 1.93 PPG; Crewe away: 0.43 PPG.
Have Wigan or Crewe been keeping clean sheets recently?
Wigan have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Crewe in 14%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to February 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. It has been a while since the last meeting — 15 March 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Wigan
0
Draws
0
Crewe
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Wigan and Crewe?
From 2 meetings on record, Wigan have won 2, Crewe have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Wigan and Crewe last play each other?
They last met on 15 March 2022, when Crewe 0-2 Wigan.
Who has won more matches between Wigan and Crewe?
Wigan have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Wigan are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Crewe are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 71% for Wigan, 64% for Crewe — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Wigan) and 50% (Crewe).
On the defensive side: Crewe in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Wigan home games / Crewe away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Wigan play Crewe?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 71% of Wigan's games and 64% of Crewe's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Wigan vs Crewe usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Wigan's recent games and 50% of Crewe's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Wigan and Crewe tend to score early?
Wigan have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Crewe in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Wigan cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Crewe.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Wigan beat Crewe 2-0 at DW Stadium, Regular Season - 31, in the League One. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Wigan 2.01 xG and Crewe 0.85 xG, a combined 2.86. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Crewe landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Wigan attack 1.12 / defence 1.13 against Crewe attack 0.61 / defence 1.62, drawn from 28/31 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Wigan 64% | Draw 21% | Crewe 15%, with Wigan to win its most likely call at 64%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Wigan 57%, Crewe 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Wigan's trading profile (28 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.
Crewe's trading profile (28 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Wigan arrived the stronger side — 2.11 PPG against 0.75. That form edge translated into the three points. Wigan (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.