Wigan 1-2 Cambridge United – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Wigan at 59% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Wigan vs Cambridge United encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A League One encounter, Regular Season - 43 sees Cambridge United travel to DW Stadium to take on Wigan. The game is scheduled for Saturday 16 April 2022, 17:15 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Wigan stand at 6W 3D 1L from 10 League One matches — 2.10 PPG. Last five: W D W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 0.70 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
Wigan's form when playing at home: 7W 2D 1L across 10 games at DW Stadium this term (2.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Cambridge United — All Games: 4W 1D 5L from 10 League One fixtures this season — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L W W L W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Cambridge United away from home this season: 3W 2D 5L from 10 away games — 1.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Wigan are in the better shape of the two on current League One data — 0.80 PPG ahead (2.10 vs 1.30). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Wigan, 0 for Cambridge United and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 4.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 23 Nov 2021, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Wigan in-play and half-time data (41 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games).
Cambridge United in-play and half-time data (41 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Wigan 58% versus Cambridge United 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Wigan 51% | Cambridge United 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Wigan 1.91 xG and Cambridge United 0.93 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Wigan attack 1.122 / defence 1.014 | Cambridge United attack 0.789 / defence 1.524. League average goals — home 1.118 / away 1.166. Cambridge United bring a strong defensive rating of 1.524 — this is suppressing Wigan's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 41 Wigan games / 42 Cambridge United games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Wigan 59% | Draw 24% | Cambridge United 17%. Fair-value odds: Wigan 1.69 | Draw 4.17 | Cambridge United 5.88. The model has a clear lean to Wigan (59%) — a 42pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.84. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.84 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Wigan are the pick at 59% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.84 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 54% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. This conflicts with form data: Wigan 50% | Cambridge United 30% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Wigan vs Cambridge United | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 43 | Venue: DW Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 16 Apr 2022, 17:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Wigan 59% | Draw 24% | Cambridge United 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 53% | xG Wigan 1.91 / Cambridge United 0.93 • Poisson strength factors: Wigan attack 1.122 / def 1.014 | Cambridge United attack 0.789 / def 1.524 | league avg home 1.118 / away 1.166 • Poisson stance: Wigan (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.91
Wigan xG
Expected Goals
0.93
Cambridge United xG
53%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Wigan vs Cambridge United kick off?
Wigan vs Cambridge United kicked off at 17:15 on Saturday 16 April 2022 at DW Stadium.
What was the final score in Wigan vs Cambridge United?
Wigan 1 - 2 Cambridge United.
Where is Wigan vs Cambridge United being played?
The match is being played at DW Stadium.
What competition is Wigan vs Cambridge United part of?
Wigan vs Cambridge United is a Regular Season - 43 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Wigan vs Cambridge United?
Our statistical model gives Wigan a 59% chance of winning, Cambridge United a 17% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Wigan the favourite.
Will both teams score in Wigan vs Cambridge United?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Wigan and Cambridge United will score (BTTS).
Will Wigan vs Cambridge United have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Wigan and Cambridge United?
Record (1 meetings): Wigan 0W | Draws 1 | Cambridge United 0W.
What form are Wigan and Cambridge United in?
Wigan (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-D-W-W-D. Cambridge United (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Wigan's attack at 1.12x the league average against Cambridge United's defence at 1.52x — combine the two and it projects 1.91 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Cambridge United's attack versus Wigan's defence, projects 0.93 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 41/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-0 (10.6%), 2-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Wigan Win
59%
1.69
24%
4.09
17%
6.04
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.1%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
10.6%
Home win
1 – 1
10.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.91
Wigan xG
Total xG
2.84
0.93
Cambridge United xG
1.69
59%
Home win
4.09
24%
Draw
6.04
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.89
47%
BTTS No
2.13
Clean Sheet
39%
2.54
15%
6.76
Win to Nil
23%
4.30
2%
40.82
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.8 | 5.4 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 11.1 | 10.4 | 4.8 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.6 | 9.9 | 4.6 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.8 | 6.3 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.2 | 3.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Wigan vs Cambridge United?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.7%.
How many goals are Wigan and Cambridge United expected to score?
The model projects 1.91 expected goals for Wigan and 0.93 for Cambridge United, a combined total of 2.84.
How confident is the prediction model for Wigan vs Cambridge United?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 41 outings, Wigan have picked up 2.12 PPG on a 26W 9D 6L record — W-D-W-W-D across the most recent five.
Cambridge United's form line: 14W 11D 16L from 41 games, 1.29 PPG, last five L-W-W-L-W.
Put side by side, Wigan are the form team by 0.83 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Cambridge United.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Wigan have posted 2.05 PPG from 21 outings (13W 4D 4L).
On the road, Cambridge United have gone 6W 5D 10L from 21 away games — 1.10 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Wigan come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Wigan are averaging 1.78 goals scored and 0.88 conceded per game recently; Cambridge United are on 1.22 scored and 1.54 conceded.
Defensively: Wigan have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 41 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Wigan
Current Season
Cambridge United
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Wigan and Cambridge United in coming into this match?
Wigan have gone 26W 9D 6L in their last 41 games (2.12 PPG), while Cambridge United have gone 14W 11D 16L in their last 41 (1.29 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Wigan at home or Cambridge United away?
Wigan's home record (2.05 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Wigan at home: 2.05 PPG; Cambridge United away: 1.10 PPG.
Have Wigan or Cambridge United been keeping clean sheets recently?
Wigan have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, Cambridge United in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Wigan and Cambridge United runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. It has been a while since the last meeting — 8 March 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Wigan's record when hosting Cambridge United specifically: 2W 0D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Wigan
1
Draws
3
Cambridge United
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Wigan and Cambridge United?
From 6 meetings on record, Wigan have won 2, Cambridge United have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Wigan and Cambridge United last play each other?
They last met on 8 March 2025, when Wigan 1-0 Cambridge United.
Who has won more matches between Wigan and Cambridge United?
Cambridge United have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Wigan are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time.
Cambridge United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Wigan 57%, Cambridge United 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Wigan) and 52% (Cambridge United).
On the defensive side: Wigan keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Wigan home games / Cambridge United away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Wigan play Cambridge United?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 57% of Wigan's recent matches and 52% of Cambridge United's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Wigan vs Cambridge United usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Wigan's recent games and 52% of Cambridge United's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Wigan and Cambridge United tend to score early?
Wigan have had a goal before half-time in 81% of their recent matches, Cambridge United in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Cambridge United defy the odds to beat Wigan 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cambridge United beat Wigan 1-2 at DW Stadium, Regular Season - 43, in the League One. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Wigan 1.91 xG and Cambridge United 0.93 xG, a combined 2.84. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Wigan fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Cambridge United outscored their 0.93 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Wigan attack 1.12 / defence 1.01 against Cambridge United attack 0.79 / defence 1.52, drawn from 41/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Wigan 59% | Draw 24% | Cambridge United 17%, with Wigan to win its most likely call at 59%. Instead the game produced a Cambridge United win, an outcome the model had rated at just 17% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Wigan 51%, Cambridge United 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Wigan's trading profile (41 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Cambridge United's trading profile (41 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Wigan arrived the stronger side — 2.12 PPG against 1.29. Form was overturned, with Cambridge United winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Wigan (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.90 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Cambridge United (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.19 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 1.86 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.