Wigan 1-0 AFC Wimbledon – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Wigan at 52% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Wigan vs AFC Wimbledon encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
DW Stadium plays host to Wigan versus AFC Wimbledon in League One, Regular Season - 37. Kick-off: Saturday 5 March 2022 at 15:00 UTC.
Current Form
Wigan's overall League One record this term: 5W 3D 2L from 10 games (1.80 PPG). Last five: W D W L W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
At home at DW Stadium, Wigan have gone 6W 2D 2L this season (10 games, 2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
AFC Wimbledon (all games): 0W 6D 4L across 10 League One outings this term — 0.60 points per game. Last five: L D L D D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
AFC Wimbledon away from home this season: 1W 3D 6L from 10 away games — 0.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
Form favours the hosts. Wigan's 1.80 PPG return is 1.20 points per game ahead of AFC Wimbledon's 0.60 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Wigan 1W, AFC Wimbledon 0W, 0D.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 23 Oct 2021, ended 2–0 with Wigan winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Wigan — key trading statistics (33 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
AFC Wimbledon — key trading statistics (33 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 39% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Wigan 61% versus AFC Wimbledon 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Wigan 54% | AFC Wimbledon 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Wigan 1.57 xG and AFC Wimbledon 0.90 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Wigan attack 1.010 / defence 1.078 | AFC Wimbledon attack 0.663 / defence 1.384. League average goals — home 1.126 / away 1.253. AFC Wimbledon bring a strong defensive rating of 1.384 — this is suppressing Wigan's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 33 Wigan games / 34 AFC Wimbledon games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Wigan 52% | Draw 27% | AFC Wimbledon 21%. Fair-value odds: Wigan 1.92 | Draw 3.70 | AFC Wimbledon 4.76. Wigan hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.47. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.47 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Wigan at 52% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Wigan if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.47 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 45% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 48% on No. Form rates are neutral: Wigan 60% | AFC Wimbledon 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Wigan vs AFC Wimbledon | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 37 | Venue: DW Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 5 Mar 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Wigan 52% | Draw 27% | AFC Wimbledon 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 48% | xG Wigan 1.57 / AFC Wimbledon 0.90 • Poisson strength factors: Wigan attack 1.010 / def 1.078 | AFC Wimbledon attack 0.663 / def 1.384 | league avg home 1.126 / away 1.253 • Poisson stance: Wigan (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.57
Wigan xG
Expected Goals
0.90
AFC Wimbledon xG
48%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Wigan vs AFC Wimbledon kick off?
Wigan vs AFC Wimbledon kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 5 March 2022 at DW Stadium.
What was the final score in Wigan vs AFC Wimbledon?
Wigan 1 - 0 AFC Wimbledon.
Where is Wigan vs AFC Wimbledon being played?
The match is being played at DW Stadium.
What competition is Wigan vs AFC Wimbledon part of?
Wigan vs AFC Wimbledon is a Regular Season - 37 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Wigan vs AFC Wimbledon?
Our statistical model gives Wigan a 52% chance of winning, AFC Wimbledon a 21% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Wigan the favourite.
Will both teams score in Wigan vs AFC Wimbledon?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Wigan and AFC Wimbledon will score (BTTS).
Will Wigan vs AFC Wimbledon have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Wigan and AFC Wimbledon?
Record (1 meetings): Wigan 1W | Draws 0 | AFC Wimbledon 0W.
What form are Wigan and AFC Wimbledon in?
Wigan (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D-W-L-W. AFC Wimbledon (all comps): 0W-6D-4L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-D-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Wigan's attacking strength (1.01x league average) is weighed against AFC Wimbledon's defensive record (1.38x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.57. Flip it around — AFC Wimbledon's attack (0.66x) against Wigan's defence (1.08x) — and the away total comes out at 0.90.
These ratings are built from 33/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.5%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.8%), 2-0 (10.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Wigan Win
52%
1.91
27%
3.69
21%
4.87
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
2 – 0
10.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.57
Wigan xG
Total xG
2.47
0.90
AFC Wimbledon xG
1.91
52%
Home win
3.69
27%
Draw
4.87
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.09
52%
BTTS No
1.92
Clean Sheet
41%
2.45
21%
4.83
Win to Nil
21%
4.68
4%
23.51
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.5 | 7.6 | 3.4 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 13.3 | 11.9 | 5.3 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.5 | 9.4 | 4.2 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.5 | 4.9 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.2 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Wigan vs AFC Wimbledon?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Wigan and AFC Wimbledon expected to score?
The model projects 1.57 expected goals for Wigan and 0.90 for AFC Wimbledon, a combined total of 2.47.
How confident is the prediction model for Wigan vs AFC Wimbledon?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 33 outings, Wigan have picked up 2.09 PPG on a 21W 6D 6L record — W-D-W-L-W across the most recent five.
AFC Wimbledon's form line: 5W 15D 13L from 33 games, 0.91 PPG, last five L-D-L-D-D.
Put side by side, Wigan are the form team by 1.18 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against AFC Wimbledon.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Wigan have posted 1.88 PPG from 16 outings (9W 3D 4L).
On the road, AFC Wimbledon have gone 3W 4D 9L from 16 away games — 0.81 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Wigan come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Wigan are averaging 1.76 goals scored and 0.97 conceded per game recently; AFC Wimbledon are on 1.12 scored and 1.58 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Wigan have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Last 33 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Wigan
Current Season
AFC Wimbledon
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Wigan and AFC Wimbledon in coming into this match?
Wigan have gone 21W 6D 6L in their last 33 games (2.09 PPG), while AFC Wimbledon have gone 5W 15D 13L in their last 33 (0.91 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Wigan at home or AFC Wimbledon away?
Wigan's home record (1.88 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Wigan at home: 1.88 PPG; AFC Wimbledon away: 0.81 PPG.
Have Wigan or AFC Wimbledon been keeping clean sheets recently?
Wigan have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, AFC Wimbledon in 15%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. They last met on 25 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Wigan have gone 1W 0D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against AFC Wimbledon — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Wigan
0
Draws
1
AFC Wimbledon
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Wigan and AFC Wimbledon?
From 4 meetings on record, Wigan have won 3, AFC Wimbledon have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Wigan and AFC Wimbledon last play each other?
They last met on 25 April 2026, when Wigan 0-1 AFC Wimbledon.
Who has won more matches between Wigan and AFC Wimbledon?
Wigan have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Wigan are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
AFC Wimbledon are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Wigan 62%, AFC Wimbledon 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Wigan) and 56% (AFC Wimbledon).
On the defensive side: Wigan keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; AFC Wimbledon in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Wigan home games / AFC Wimbledon away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Wigan play AFC Wimbledon?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 62% of Wigan's recent matches and 44% of AFC Wimbledon's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Wigan vs AFC Wimbledon usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Wigan's recent games and 56% of AFC Wimbledon's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Wigan and AFC Wimbledon tend to score early?
Wigan have had a goal before half-time in 81% of their recent matches, AFC Wimbledon in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Wigan edge out AFC Wimbledon 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Wigan beat AFC Wimbledon 1-0 at DW Stadium, Regular Season - 37, in the League One. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Wigan 1.57 xG and AFC Wimbledon 0.90 xG, a combined 2.47. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. AFC Wimbledon landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Wigan attack 1.01 / defence 1.08 against AFC Wimbledon attack 0.66 / defence 1.38, drawn from 33/34 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Wigan 52% | Draw 27% | AFC Wimbledon 21%, with Wigan to win its most likely call at 52%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 72% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Wigan 54%, AFC Wimbledon 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Wigan's trading profile (33 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
AFC Wimbledon's trading profile (33 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 39% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Wigan arrived the stronger side — 2.09 PPG against 0.91. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Wigan (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.06 average — tighter than their form line. AFC Wimbledon (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.