Sunderland 5-1 Cambridge United – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Sunderland at 58% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Sunderland vs Cambridge United encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Sunderland and Cambridge United meet at Stadium of Light in League One, Regular Season - 45. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 23 April 2022 at 15:00 UTC.
Current Form
Sunderland's overall League One record this term: 6W 4D 0L from 10 games (2.20 PPG). Last five: D W W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 0.50 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.50 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
At home at Stadium of Light, Sunderland have gone 6W 1D 3L this season (10 games, 1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Cambridge United have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 League One outings this season: 4W 1D 5L. Last five: W L W W L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Cambridge United away from home this season: 3W 2D 5L from 10 away games — 1.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game.
The points-per-game gap of 0.90 in Sunderland's favour (2.20 vs 1.30) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Sunderland, 0 for Cambridge United and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 27 Nov 2021, ended 2–1 with Sunderland winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Sunderland — key trading statistics (43 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games).
Cambridge United — key trading statistics (43 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sunderland 54% versus Cambridge United 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sunderland 60% | Cambridge United 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sunderland 2.03 xG and Cambridge United 1.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sunderland attack 1.249 / defence 1.066 | Cambridge United attack 0.856 / defence 1.453. League average goals — home 1.119 / away 1.165. Cambridge United bring a strong defensive rating of 1.453 — this is suppressing Sunderland's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 43 Sunderland games / 44 Cambridge United games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sunderland 58% | Draw 24% | Cambridge United 18%. Fair-value odds: Sunderland 1.72 | Draw 4.17 | Cambridge United 5.56. The model has a clear lean to Sunderland (58%) — a 40pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 3.09. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.09 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Sunderland are the pick at 58% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.09 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 60% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 58% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Sunderland 60% | Cambridge United 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sunderland vs Cambridge United | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 45 | Venue: Stadium of Light • Kick-off: Saturday 23 Apr 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sunderland 58% | Draw 24% | Cambridge United 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 58% | xG Sunderland 2.03 / Cambridge United 1.06 • Poisson strength factors: Sunderland attack 1.249 / def 1.066 | Cambridge United attack 0.856 / def 1.453 | league avg home 1.119 / away 1.165 • Poisson stance: Sunderland (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.03
Sunderland xG
Expected Goals
1.06
Cambridge United xG
58%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sunderland vs Cambridge United kick off?
Sunderland vs Cambridge United kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 23 April 2022 at Stadium of Light.
What was the final score in Sunderland vs Cambridge United?
Sunderland 5 - 1 Cambridge United.
Where is Sunderland vs Cambridge United being played?
The match is being played at Stadium of Light.
What competition is Sunderland vs Cambridge United part of?
Sunderland vs Cambridge United is a Regular Season - 45 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Sunderland vs Cambridge United?
Our statistical model gives Sunderland a 58% chance of winning, Cambridge United a 18% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Sunderland the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sunderland vs Cambridge United?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Sunderland and Cambridge United will score (BTTS).
Will Sunderland vs Cambridge United have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sunderland and Cambridge United?
Record (1 meetings): Sunderland 1W | Draws 0 | Cambridge United 0W.
What form are Sunderland and Cambridge United in?
Sunderland (all comps): 6W-4D-0L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.50 | L5 D-W-W-W-D. Cambridge United (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-L-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Sunderland's attacking strength (1.25x league average) is weighed against Cambridge United's defensive record (1.45x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.03. Flip it around — Cambridge United's attack (0.86x) against Sunderland's defence (1.07x) — and the away total comes out at 1.06.
These ratings are built from 43/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sunderland Win
58%
1.71
24%
4.24
18%
5.56
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.8%
Draw
2 – 0
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.03
Sunderland xG
Total xG
3.09
1.06
Cambridge United xG
1.71
58%
Home win
4.24
24%
Draw
5.56
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.72
42%
BTTS No
2.39
Clean Sheet
35%
2.90
13%
7.61
Win to Nil
20%
4.96
2%
42.35
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.5 | 4.8 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.2 | 9.8 | 5.2 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.3 | 9.9 | 5.3 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.3 | 6.7 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.2 | 3.4 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sunderland vs Cambridge United?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.1%.
How many goals are Sunderland and Cambridge United expected to score?
The model projects 2.03 expected goals for Sunderland and 1.06 for Cambridge United, a combined total of 3.09.
How confident is the prediction model for Sunderland vs Cambridge United?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Sunderland come into this having played 43 games, going 22W 11D 10L for 1.79 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-W-W-D.
On the other side, Cambridge United sit at 1.30 PPG from 43 outings (15W 11D 17L), a run that reads W-L-W-W-L across their last five.
Sunderland carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.49 PPG clear of Cambridge United — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Sunderland's home form reads 15W 2D 4L across 21 games on their own ground, a 2.24 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.79 PPG overall — Sunderland are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Cambridge United have taken 1.24 points per game from 21 outings (7W 5D 9L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sunderland come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Sunderland are averaging 1.67 goals scored and 1.19 conceded per game recently; Cambridge United are on 1.21 scored and 1.53 conceded.
Last 43 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sunderland
Current Season
Cambridge United
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sunderland and Cambridge United in coming into this match?
Sunderland have gone 22W 11D 10L in their last 43 games (1.79 PPG), while Cambridge United have gone 15W 11D 17L in their last 43 (1.30 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sunderland at home or Cambridge United away?
Sunderland's home record (2.24 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sunderland at home: 2.24 PPG; Cambridge United away: 1.24 PPG.
Have Sunderland or Cambridge United been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sunderland have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Cambridge United in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. It has been a while since the last meeting — 23 April 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Sunderland
0
Draws
0
Cambridge United
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sunderland and Cambridge United?
From 2 meetings on record, Sunderland have won 2, Cambridge United have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Sunderland and Cambridge United last play each other?
They last met on 23 April 2022, when Sunderland 5-1 Cambridge United.
Who has won more matches between Sunderland and Cambridge United?
Sunderland have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Sunderland are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Cambridge United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sunderland 52%, Cambridge United 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Sunderland) and 52% (Cambridge United).
On the defensive side: Sunderland keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sunderland home games / Cambridge United away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sunderland play Cambridge United?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Sunderland's recent matches and 52% of Cambridge United's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sunderland vs Cambridge United usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 57% of Sunderland's recent games and 52% of Cambridge United's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sunderland and Cambridge United tend to score early?
Sunderland have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Cambridge United in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Sunderland run riot with a 5-1 hammering of Cambridge United.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sunderland beat Cambridge United 5-1 at Stadium of Light, Regular Season - 45, in the League One. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sunderland 2.03 xG and Cambridge United 1.06 xG, a combined 3.09. The scoreboard read 5-1 for 6 actual goals. Sunderland beat their projection by 3.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sunderland attack 1.25 / defence 1.07 against Cambridge United attack 0.86 / defence 1.45, drawn from 43/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sunderland 58% | Draw 24% | Cambridge United 18%, with Sunderland to win its most likely call at 58%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 37% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sunderland 60%, Cambridge United 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sunderland's trading profile (43 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Cambridge United's trading profile (43 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Sunderland arrived the stronger side — 1.79 PPG against 1.30. That form edge translated into the three points. Sunderland (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 2.05 average — above their attacking norm. Cambridge United (home/away splits) shipped 5 against a 1.81 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.