Stockport County 3-0 Stevenage – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Stockport County at 44% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Stockport County vs Stevenage encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Edgeley Park plays host to Stockport County versus Stevenage in League One, Regular Season - 40. Kick-off: Tuesday 1 April 2025 at 19:45 UTC.
Form
Stockport County (all games): 5W 3D 2L across 10 League One fixtures this term — 1.80 PPG. Last five: D D W L W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Stockport County's home record at Edgeley Park: 7W 2D 1L from 10 League One appearances (2.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Stevenage have collected 0.90 PPG across 10 League One outings this season: 2W 3D 5L. Last five: W D L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Stevenage's away record: 4W 2D 4L from 10 road trips in League One this season (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The form ledger tips toward Stockport County. A 0.90 PPG lead over Stevenage (1.80 vs 0.90) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Stockport County lead 1W to 2W over the last 3 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 14 Dec 2024, ended 1–2 with Stevenage winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Stockport County — key trading statistics (84 games, 41 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games).
Stevenage — key trading statistics (84 games, 41 at away): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time; they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Stockport County 54% versus Stevenage 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Stockport County 49% | Stevenage 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Stockport County 1.16 xG and Stevenage 0.79 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Stockport County attack 1.055 / defence 0.906 | Stevenage attack 0.782 / defence 0.869. League average goals — home 1.268 / away 1.111. Data: 39 Stockport County games / 84 Stevenage games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Stockport County 44% | Draw 32% | Stevenage 24%. Fair-value odds: Stockport County 2.27 | Draw 3.12 | Stevenage 4.17. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 31% | BTTS probability 38% | Total xG 1.95. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 69% probability — total xG of 1.95 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 38% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Stockport County are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Stockport County if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.95 combined xG gives a 31% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 38%. Form rates are neutral: Stockport County 60% | Stevenage 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Stockport County vs Stevenage | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 40 | Venue: Edgeley Park • Kick-off: Tuesday 1 Apr 2025, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Stockport County 44% | Draw 32% | Stevenage 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 31% | BTTS 38% | xG Stockport County 1.16 / Stevenage 0.79 • Poisson strength factors: Stockport County attack 1.055 / def 0.906 | Stevenage attack 0.782 / def 0.869 | league avg home 1.268 / away 1.111 • Poisson stance: Stockport County (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.16
Stockport County xG
Expected Goals
0.79
Stevenage xG
38%
BTTS
59%
Over 1.5
31%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Stockport County vs Stevenage kick off?
Stockport County vs Stevenage kicked off at 19:45 on Tuesday 1 April 2025 at Edgeley Park.
What was the final score in Stockport County vs Stevenage?
Stockport County 3 - 0 Stevenage.
Where is Stockport County vs Stevenage being played?
The match is being played at Edgeley Park.
What competition is Stockport County vs Stevenage part of?
Stockport County vs Stevenage is a Regular Season - 40 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Stockport County vs Stevenage?
Our statistical model gives Stockport County a 44% chance of winning, Stevenage a 24% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Stockport County the favourite.
Will both teams score in Stockport County vs Stevenage?
Our model estimates a 38% probability that both Stockport County and Stevenage will score (BTTS).
Will Stockport County vs Stevenage have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 31%.
What is the head-to-head record between Stockport County and Stevenage?
Record (3 meetings): Stockport County 1W | Draws 0 | Stevenage 2W.
What form are Stockport County and Stevenage in?
Stockport County (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-D-W-L-W. Stevenage (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-D-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Stockport County's attack rating (1.05) and Stevenage's defence rating (0.87), the model arrives at 1.16 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Stevenage's attack (0.78x) against Stockport County's defence (0.91x) — and the away total comes out at 0.79.
These ratings are built from 39/84 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.9%. Close behind: 1-0 (14.9%), 1-1 (14.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 46% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Stockport County Win
44%
2.27
32%
3.15
24%
4.12
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.5%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.2%
Draw
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.16
Stockport County xG
Total xG
1.95
0.79
Stevenage xG
2.27
44%
Home win
3.15
32%
Draw
4.12
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
58%
Over 1.5
1.72
42%
Under 1.5
2.38
31%
Over 2.5
3.23
69%
Under 2.5
1.45
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
38%
BTTS Yes
2.63
62%
BTTS No
1.61
Clean Sheet
46%
2.20
31%
3.20
Win to Nil
20%
4.99
8%
13.17
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.2 | 11.2 | 4.4 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 16.5 | 13.0 | 5.1 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 9.6 | 7.6 | 3.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.7 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Stockport County vs Stevenage?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.9%.
How many goals are Stockport County and Stevenage expected to score?
The model projects 1.16 expected goals for Stockport County and 0.79 for Stevenage, a combined total of 1.95.
How confident is the prediction model for Stockport County vs Stevenage?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 84 outings, Stockport County have picked up 1.90 PPG on a 46W 22D 16L record — D-D-W-L-W across the most recent five.
Stevenage's form line: 32W 24D 28L from 84 games, 1.43 PPG, last five W-D-L-D-L.
Put side by side, Stockport County are the form team by 0.47 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Stevenage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Stockport County have posted 2.20 PPG from 41 outings (27W 9D 5L).
On the road, Stevenage have gone 13W 12D 16L from 41 away games — 1.24 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Stockport County come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Stockport County are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 0.99 conceded per game recently; Stevenage are on 1.10 scored and 1.01 conceded.
Defensively: Stockport County have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games; Stevenage in 42% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 84 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Stockport County
Current Season
Stevenage
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Stockport County and Stevenage in coming into this match?
Stockport County have gone 46W 22D 16L in their last 84 games (1.90 PPG), while Stevenage have gone 32W 24D 28L in their last 84 (1.43 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Stockport County at home or Stevenage away?
Stockport County's home record (2.20 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Stockport County at home: 2.20 PPG; Stevenage away: 1.24 PPG.
Have Stockport County or Stevenage been keeping clean sheets recently?
Stockport County have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Stevenage in 42%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since August 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. The pairing has crossed competitions too — League Two, League One all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 13 May 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Stockport County go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Stockport County won 3-0 on 1 Apr 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Stockport County have gone 3W 0D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Stevenage — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Stockport County
0
Draws
4
Stevenage
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Stockport County and Stevenage?
From 8 meetings on record, Stockport County have won 4, Stevenage have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Stockport County and Stevenage last play each other?
They last met on 13 May 2026, when Stockport County 2-0 Stevenage.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Stockport County are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 49% of the time.
Stevenage are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Stockport County 42%, Stevenage 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Stockport County) and 44% (Stevenage).
On the defensive side: Stockport County keep a clean sheet in 54% of their matches; Stevenage in 39%; Stevenage in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Stockport County home games / Stevenage away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Stockport County play Stevenage?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Stockport County's recent matches and 42% of Stevenage's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Stockport County vs Stevenage usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Stockport County's recent games and 44% of Stevenage's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Stockport County and Stevenage tend to score early?
Stockport County have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Stevenage in 66% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Stockport County run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Stevenage.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Stockport County beat Stevenage 3-0 at Edgeley Park, Regular Season - 40, in the League One. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Stockport County 1.16 xG and Stevenage 0.79 xG, a combined 1.95. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Stockport County beat their projection by 1.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Stockport County attack 1.05 / defence 0.91 against Stevenage attack 0.78 / defence 0.87, drawn from 39/84 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Stockport County 44% | Draw 32% | Stevenage 24%, with Stockport County to win its most likely call at 44%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 59% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Stockport County 49%, Stevenage 42%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Stockport County's trading profile (84 games, 41 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one.
Stevenage's trading profile (84 games, 41 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Stockport County arrived the stronger side — 1.90 PPG against 1.43. Form held, and they took the win. Stockport County (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.93 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 0.83 average — tighter than their form line. Stevenage (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.12 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.