Stockport County 2-1 Plymouth – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Plymouth at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Stockport County vs Plymouth fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Stockport County host Plymouth at Edgeley Park in League One, Regular Season - 30. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 31 January 2026 at 15:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Stockport County stand at 5W 2D 3L from 10 League One matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: L W W D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters this season, Stockport County have posted 5W 2D 3L at Edgeley Park — 1.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all League One games this season, Plymouth have recorded 6W 3D 1L from 10 outings — 2.10 PPG. Last five: D W W W D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 0.80. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
On the road, Plymouth have gone 6W 1D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Stockport County at 1.70 PPG versus Plymouth's 2.10. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Stockport County, 1 for Plymouth and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 6.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 6 Sep 2025, ended 2–4 with Plymouth winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 6.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Stockport County in-play and half-time data (74 games, 36 at home): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games).
Plymouth in-play and half-time data (74 games, 36 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Stockport County 58% versus Plymouth 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Stockport County 46% | Plymouth 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Stockport County 1.37 xG and Plymouth 1.54 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Stockport County attack 1.056 / defence 1.228 | Plymouth attack 1.165 / defence 0.937. League average goals — home 1.382 / away 1.075. Data: 74 Stockport County games / 28 Plymouth games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Stockport County 34% | Draw 25% | Plymouth 41%. Fair-value odds: Stockport County 2.94 | Draw 4.00 | Plymouth 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.91. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.91 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Plymouth at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Plymouth offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.91 combined xG gives a 56% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 59% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Stockport County 60% | Plymouth 40%.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Stockport County vs Plymouth | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Edgeley Park • Kick-off: Saturday 31 Jan 2026, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Stockport County 34% | Draw 25% | Plymouth 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 59% | xG Stockport County 1.37 / Plymouth 1.54 • Poisson strength factors: Stockport County attack 1.056 / def 1.228 | Plymouth attack 1.165 / def 0.937 | league avg home 1.382 / away 1.075 • Poisson stance: Plymouth (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.37
Stockport County xG
Expected Goals
1.54
Plymouth xG
59%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Stockport County vs Plymouth kick off?
Stockport County vs Plymouth kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 31 January 2026 at Edgeley Park.
What was the final score in Stockport County vs Plymouth?
Stockport County 2 - 1 Plymouth.
Where is Stockport County vs Plymouth being played?
The match is being played at Edgeley Park.
What competition is Stockport County vs Plymouth part of?
Stockport County vs Plymouth is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Stockport County vs Plymouth?
Our statistical model gives Stockport County a 34% chance of winning, Plymouth a 41% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Plymouth the favourite.
Will both teams score in Stockport County vs Plymouth?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Stockport County and Plymouth will score (BTTS).
Will Stockport County vs Plymouth have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Stockport County and Plymouth?
Record (1 meetings): Stockport County 0W | Draws 0 | Plymouth 1W.
What form are Stockport County and Plymouth in?
Stockport County (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-W-D-W. Plymouth (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-W-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Stockport County's attacking strength (1.06x league average) is weighed against Plymouth's defensive record (0.94x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.37. The same calculation in reverse, Plymouth's attack versus Stockport County's defence, projects 1.54 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 74/28 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.0%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.8%), 2-1 (7.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Plymouth Win
34%
2.95
25%
4.06
41%
2.41
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.8%
Away win
0 – 1
8.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.37
Stockport County xG
Total xG
2.91
1.54
Plymouth xG
2.95
34%
Home win
4.06
25%
Draw
2.41
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.71
41%
BTTS No
2.41
Clean Sheet
21%
4.66
25%
3.93
Win to Nil
7%
13.74
11%
9.47
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.5 | 8.4 | 6.5 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 7.5 | 11.5 | 8.8 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.1 | 7.9 | 6.1 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 3.6 | 2.8 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Stockport County vs Plymouth?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are Stockport County and Plymouth expected to score?
The model projects 1.37 expected goals for Stockport County and 1.54 for Plymouth, a combined total of 2.91.
How confident is the prediction model for Stockport County vs Plymouth?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Stockport County's recent record stands at 37W 21D 16L from 74 games, a 1.78 PPG return, with L-W-W-D-W in the last five.
Plymouth, meanwhile, have gone 22W 17D 35L across 74 games — 1.12 PPG, with D-W-W-W-D in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Stockport County by 0.66 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Plymouth heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Stockport County have managed 21W 8D 7L from 36 games — 1.97 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Plymouth's away record stands at 8W 7D 21L across 36 trips, a 0.86 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Stockport County come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Stockport County are averaging 1.49 goals scored and 1.07 conceded per game recently; Plymouth are on 1.16 scored and 1.73 conceded.
Last 74 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Stockport County
Current Season
Plymouth
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Stockport County and Plymouth in coming into this match?
Stockport County have gone 37W 21D 16L in their last 74 games (1.78 PPG), while Plymouth have gone 22W 17D 35L in their last 74 (1.12 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Stockport County at home or Plymouth away?
Stockport County's home record (1.97 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Stockport County at home: 1.97 PPG; Plymouth away: 0.86 PPG.
Have Stockport County or Plymouth been keeping clean sheets recently?
Stockport County have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Plymouth in 15%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
3 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. The two were last together as recently as 15 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
Stockport County go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Last 3 Meetings
2
Stockport County
0
Draws
1
Plymouth
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Stockport County and Plymouth?
From 3 meetings on record, Stockport County have won 2, Plymouth have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Stockport County and Plymouth last play each other?
They last met on 15 August 2026, when Plymouth 1-3 Stockport County.
Who has won more matches between Stockport County and Plymouth?
Stockport County have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 3 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Stockport County are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Plymouth are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Stockport County 61%, Plymouth 36% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Stockport County) and 47% (Plymouth).
On the defensive side: Stockport County keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Plymouth in 53%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Stockport County home games / Plymouth away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Stockport County play Plymouth?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 61% of Stockport County's recent matches and 36% of Plymouth's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Stockport County vs Plymouth usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of Stockport County's recent games and 47% of Plymouth's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Stockport County and Plymouth tend to score early?
Stockport County have had a goal before half-time in 81% of their recent matches, Plymouth in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Stockport County defy the odds to beat Plymouth 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Stockport County beat Plymouth 2-1 at Edgeley Park, Regular Season - 30, in the League One. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Stockport County 1.37 xG and Plymouth 1.54 xG, a combined 2.91. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Stockport County attack 1.06 / defence 1.23 against Plymouth attack 1.17 / defence 0.94, drawn from 74/28 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Stockport County 34% | Draw 25% | Plymouth 41%, with Plymouth to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual Stockport County win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Stockport County 46%, Plymouth 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Stockport County's trading profile (74 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Plymouth's trading profile (74 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Stockport County arrived the stronger side — 1.78 PPG against 1.12. Form held, and they took the win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.