Stevenage 1-1 Mansfield Town – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Stevenage at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Stevenage vs Mansfield Town fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Lamex Stadium plays host to Stevenage versus Mansfield Town in League One, Regular Season - 28. Kick-off: Saturday 24 January 2026 at 15:00 UTC.
Current Form
Stevenage's overall League One record this term: 1W 5D 4L from 10 games (0.80 PPG). Last five: L D L L D. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Stevenage, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Stevenage's form when playing at home: 4W 5D 1L across 10 games at Lamex Stadium this term (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Lamex Stadium. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Stevenage are significantly better at Lamex Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Mansfield Town (all games): 4W 1D 5L across 10 League One outings this term — 1.30 points per game. Last five: L W W W W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Mansfield Town, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in League One this season, Mansfield Town have posted 3W 3D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.20 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Mansfield Town arrive in superior form — a 0.50 PPG advantage (1.30 vs 0.80) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 7 meetings: Stevenage 1W, Mansfield Town 3W, 3D.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 7 previous contests averaged 1.6 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 13 Sep 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.6 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading
Stevenage half-time and goal-timing data (70 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
Mansfield Town half-time and goal-timing data (70 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Stevenage 41% versus Mansfield Town 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Stevenage 36% | Mansfield Town 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Stevenage 1.03 xG and Mansfield Town 0.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Stevenage attack 0.785 / defence 0.848 | Mansfield Town attack 1.020 / defence 0.964. League average goals — home 1.368 / away 1.081. Stevenage's attack strength of 0.785 is below the league average — the 1.03 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 71 Stevenage games / 70 Mansfield Town games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Stevenage 37% | Draw 31% | Mansfield Town 32%. Fair-value odds: Stevenage 2.70 | Draw 3.23 | Mansfield Town 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 32% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 1.97. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 68% probability — total xG of 1.97 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Stevenage at 37% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Mansfield Town (1.30 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Stevenage if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 1.97 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 32% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 1.6 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 39% on No. Form rates corroborate: Stevenage 40% | Mansfield Town 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Stevenage vs Mansfield Town | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Lamex Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 24 Jan 2026, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Stevenage 37% | Draw 31% | Mansfield Town 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 32% | BTTS 39% | xG Stevenage 1.03 / Mansfield Town 0.94 • Poisson strength factors: Stevenage attack 0.785 / def 0.848 | Mansfield Town attack 1.020 / def 0.964 | league avg home 1.368 / away 1.081 • Poisson stance: Stevenage (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.03
Stevenage xG
Expected Goals
0.94
Mansfield Town xG
39%
BTTS
59%
Over 1.5
32%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Stevenage vs Mansfield Town kick off?
Stevenage vs Mansfield Town kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 24 January 2026 at Lamex Stadium.
What was the final score in Stevenage vs Mansfield Town?
Stevenage 1 - 1 Mansfield Town.
Where is Stevenage vs Mansfield Town being played?
The match is being played at Lamex Stadium.
What competition is Stevenage vs Mansfield Town part of?
Stevenage vs Mansfield Town is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Stevenage vs Mansfield Town?
Our statistical model gives Stevenage a 37% chance of winning, Mansfield Town a 32% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Stevenage the favourite.
Will both teams score in Stevenage vs Mansfield Town?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Stevenage and Mansfield Town will score (BTTS).
Will Stevenage vs Mansfield Town have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 32%.
What is the head-to-head record between Stevenage and Mansfield Town?
Record (7 meetings): Stevenage 1W | Draws 3 | Mansfield Town 3W.
What form are Stevenage and Mansfield Town in?
Stevenage (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-D-L-L-D. Mansfield Town (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Stevenage's attacking strength (0.79x league average) is weighed against Mansfield Town's defensive record (0.96x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.03. Flip it around — Mansfield Town's attack (1.02x) against Stevenage's defence (0.85x) — and the away total comes out at 0.94.
These ratings are built from 71/70 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 15.7%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.3%), 1-0 (12.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Stevenage Win
37%
2.70
31%
3.22
32%
3.14
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.4%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.9%
Draw
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.03
Stevenage xG
Total xG
1.97
0.94
Mansfield Town xG
2.70
37%
Home win
3.22
31%
Draw
3.14
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
59%
Over 1.5
1.69
41%
Under 1.5
2.44
32%
Over 2.5
3.12
68%
Under 2.5
1.47
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.55
61%
BTTS No
1.64
Clean Sheet
39%
2.55
36%
2.82
Win to Nil
15%
6.88
11%
8.84
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.9 | 13.0 | 6.1 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.4 | 13.5 | 6.3 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 7.0 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 2.6 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Stevenage vs Mansfield Town?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.7%.
How many goals are Stevenage and Mansfield Town expected to score?
The model projects 1.03 expected goals for Stevenage and 0.94 for Mansfield Town, a combined total of 1.97.
How confident is the prediction model for Stevenage vs Mansfield Town?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Stevenage's recent record stands at 24W 20D 26L from 70 games, a 1.31 PPG return, with L-D-L-L-D in the last five. The sample for Stevenage is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Mansfield Town, meanwhile, have gone 25W 14D 31L across 70 games — 1.27 PPG, with L-W-W-W-W in their last five. The sample for Mansfield Town is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.31 PPG for Stevenage against 1.27 for Mansfield Town. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Stevenage have managed 13W 10D 10L from 33 games — 1.48 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Mansfield Town's away record stands at 10W 8D 15L across 33 trips, a 1.15 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Stevenage are averaging 0.97 goals scored and 1.04 conceded per game recently; Mansfield Town are on 1.34 scored and 1.44 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Mansfield Town in 60%.
Defensively: Stevenage have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 70 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Stevenage
Blended
Mansfield Town
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Stevenage and Mansfield Town in coming into this match?
Stevenage have gone 24W 20D 26L in their last 70 games (1.31 PPG), while Mansfield Town have gone 25W 14D 31L in their last 70 (1.27 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Stevenage at home or Mansfield Town away?
Stevenage's home record (1.48 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Stevenage at home: 1.48 PPG; Mansfield Town away: 1.15 PPG.
Have Stevenage or Mansfield Town been keeping clean sheets recently?
Stevenage have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Mansfield Town in 21%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since November 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. The pairing has crossed competitions too — League Two, League One all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 24 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
The last 3 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Stevenage have gone 0W 3D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Mansfield Town — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Stevenage
4
Draws
3
Mansfield Town
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Stevenage and Mansfield Town?
From 8 meetings on record, Stevenage have won 1, Mansfield Town have won 3, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Stevenage and Mansfield Town last play each other?
They last met on 24 January 2026, when Stevenage 1-1 Mansfield Town.
Who has won more matches between Stevenage and Mansfield Town?
Mansfield Town have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Stevenage see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches.
Mansfield Town are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 15% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Stevenage 46%, Mansfield Town 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 36% (Stevenage) and 58% (Mansfield Town).
On the defensive side: Stevenage keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Stevenage have failed to score in 27% of games; Mansfield Town in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Stevenage home games / Mansfield Town away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Stevenage play Mansfield Town?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Stevenage's recent matches and 58% of Mansfield Town's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Stevenage vs Mansfield Town usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 36% of Stevenage's recent games and 58% of Mansfield Town's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Stevenage and Mansfield Town tend to score early?
Stevenage have had a goal before half-time in 54% of their recent matches, Mansfield Town in 82% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stevenage and Mansfield Town share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Lamex Stadium, Regular Season - 28, as Stevenage and Mansfield Town drew 1-1 in the League One. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Stevenage 1.03 xG and Mansfield Town 0.94 xG, a combined 1.97. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Stevenage attack 0.79 / defence 0.85 against Mansfield Town attack 1.02 / defence 0.96, drawn from 71/70 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Stevenage 37% | Draw 31% | Mansfield Town 32%, with Stevenage to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 59% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Stevenage 36%, Mansfield Town 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Stevenage's trading profile (70 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Mansfield Town's trading profile (70 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Stevenage 1.31 PPG, Mansfield Town 1.27 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.