Stevenage 1-0 Lincoln – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Stevenage at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Stevenage vs Lincoln fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a League One clash, Regular Season - 18 as Stevenage welcome Lincoln to The Lamex Stadium. Kick-off is set for Saturday 18 November 2023 at 15:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Stevenage stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 League One matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L D D W W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Stevenage, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at The Lamex Stadium, Stevenage have gone 5W 4D 1L this season (10 games, 1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at The Lamex Stadium.
Across all League One games this season, Lincoln have recorded 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W W D L D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Lincoln, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Lincoln have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Stevenage 1.50 PPG, Lincoln 1.20 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Trading Patterns
Stevenage in-play and half-time data (62 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
Lincoln in-play and half-time data (62 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Stevenage 44% versus Lincoln 44%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Stevenage 39% | Lincoln 31%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Stevenage 1.15 xG and Lincoln 0.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Stevenage attack 0.887 / defence 0.949 | Lincoln attack 0.873 / defence 0.957. League average goals — home 1.349 / away 1.140. Data: 17 Stevenage games / 62 Lincoln games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Stevenage 40% | Draw 30% | Lincoln 30%. Fair-value odds: Stevenage 2.50 | Draw 3.33 | Lincoln 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.09. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.09 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Stevenage as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Stevenage offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.09 combined xG gives a 35% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 42% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Stevenage 40% | Lincoln 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Stevenage vs Lincoln | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: The Lamex Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 18 Nov 2023, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Stevenage 40% | Draw 30% | Lincoln 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 42% | xG Stevenage 1.15 / Lincoln 0.94 • Poisson strength factors: Stevenage attack 0.887 / def 0.949 | Lincoln attack 0.873 / def 0.957 | league avg home 1.349 / away 1.140 • Poisson stance: Stevenage (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.15
Stevenage xG
Expected Goals
0.94
Lincoln xG
42%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Stevenage vs Lincoln kick off?
Stevenage vs Lincoln kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 18 November 2023 at The Lamex Stadium.
What was the final score in Stevenage vs Lincoln?
Stevenage 1 - 0 Lincoln.
Where is Stevenage vs Lincoln being played?
The match is being played at The Lamex Stadium.
What competition is Stevenage vs Lincoln part of?
Stevenage vs Lincoln is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Stevenage vs Lincoln?
Our statistical model gives Stevenage a 40% chance of winning, Lincoln a 30% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Stevenage the favourite.
Will both teams score in Stevenage vs Lincoln?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Stevenage and Lincoln will score (BTTS).
Will Stevenage vs Lincoln have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between Stevenage and Lincoln?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Stevenage and Lincoln in?
Stevenage (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-D-D-W-W. Lincoln (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Stevenage's attack at 0.89x the league average against Lincoln's defence at 0.96x — combine the two and it projects 1.15 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Lincoln's attack versus Stevenage's defence, projects 0.94 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 17/62 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (14.1%), 1-0 (12.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Stevenage Win
40%
2.50
30%
3.31
30%
3.37
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
0 – 0
12.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.15
Stevenage xG
Total xG
2.09
0.94
Lincoln xG
2.50
40%
Home win
3.31
30%
Draw
3.37
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.39
58%
BTTS No
1.72
Clean Sheet
39%
2.57
32%
3.14
Win to Nil
16%
6.42
9%
10.58
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.4 | 11.7 | 5.5 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.2 | 13.4 | 6.3 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.1 | 7.7 | 3.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 2.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Stevenage vs Lincoln?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Stevenage and Lincoln expected to score?
The model projects 1.15 expected goals for Stevenage and 0.94 for Lincoln, a combined total of 2.09.
How confident is the prediction model for Stevenage vs Lincoln?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Stevenage come into this having played 62 games, going 31W 18D 13L for 1.79 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-D-W-W. The sample for Stevenage is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Lincoln sit at 1.37 PPG from 62 outings (20W 25D 17L), a run that reads W-W-D-L-D across their last five. The sample for Lincoln is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Stevenage carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.42 PPG clear of Lincoln — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Stevenage's home form reads 20W 6D 5L across 31 games on their own ground, a 2.13 PPG return.
Away from home, Lincoln have taken 1.16 points per game from 31 outings (9W 9D 13L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Stevenage come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Stevenage are averaging 1.32 goals scored and 0.89 conceded per game recently; Lincoln are on 1.08 scored and 1.03 conceded.
Defensively: Stevenage have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their games; Lincoln in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 62 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Stevenage
Blended
Lincoln
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Stevenage and Lincoln in coming into this match?
Stevenage have gone 31W 18D 13L in their last 62 games (1.79 PPG), while Lincoln have gone 20W 25D 17L in their last 62 (1.37 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Stevenage at home or Lincoln away?
Stevenage's home record (2.13 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Stevenage at home: 2.13 PPG; Lincoln away: 1.16 PPG.
Have Stevenage or Lincoln been keeping clean sheets recently?
Stevenage have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their recent games, Lincoln in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. They last met on 18 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Stevenage's record when hosting Lincoln specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Stevenage
3
Draws
2
Lincoln
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Stevenage and Lincoln?
From 6 meetings on record, Stevenage have won 1, Lincoln have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Stevenage and Lincoln last play each other?
They last met on 18 April 2026, when Stevenage 2-2 Lincoln.
Who has won more matches between Stevenage and Lincoln?
Lincoln have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Stevenage are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 45% of the time.
Lincoln are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Stevenage 42%, Lincoln 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 45% (Stevenage) and 39% (Lincoln).
On the defensive side: Stevenage keep a clean sheet in 55% of their matches; Lincoln in 32%; Lincoln in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Stevenage home games / Lincoln away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Stevenage play Lincoln?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Stevenage's recent matches and 42% of Lincoln's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Stevenage vs Lincoln usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 45% of Stevenage's recent games and 39% of Lincoln's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Stevenage and Lincoln tend to score early?
Stevenage have had a goal before half-time in 61% of their recent matches, Lincoln in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Stevenage edge out Lincoln 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Stevenage beat Lincoln 1-0 at The Lamex Stadium, Regular Season - 18, in the League One. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Stevenage 1.15 xG and Lincoln 0.94 xG, a combined 2.09. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Lincoln landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Stevenage attack 0.89 / defence 0.95 against Lincoln attack 0.87 / defence 0.96, drawn from 17/62 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Stevenage 40% | Draw 30% | Lincoln 30%, with Stevenage to win its most likely call at 40%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 62% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 35% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Stevenage 39%, Lincoln 31%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Stevenage's trading profile (62 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and duly kept one.
Lincoln's trading profile (62 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Stevenage arrived the stronger side — 1.79 PPG against 1.37. That form edge translated into the three points. Lincoln (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.03 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.