Stevenage 4-1 Exeter City – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Stevenage at 42% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Stevenage vs Exeter City encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Lamex Stadium plays host to Stevenage versus Exeter City in League One (matchday 30). Kick-off: Saturday 1 February 2025 at 12:30 UK time.
Current Form
Stevenage's record over their last 10 games: 5W 3D 2L (1.80 PPG). Last five: D D L W W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Stevenage's form when playing at home: 4W 2D 4L across their last 10 home games (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Exeter City have collected 0.80 PPG across their last 10 games: 2W 2D 6L. Last five: L L D L L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 2.30. Conceding 2.30 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.
When travelling, Exeter City have posted 3W 2D 5L from their last 10 away outings — 1.10 PPG. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The points-per-game gap of 1.00 in Stevenage's favour (1.80 vs 0.80) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Head-to-Head
The head-to-head sample leans to Exeter City, who have 3 wins from 5 H2H matches compared to 0 for the hosts, with 2 draws.
The 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 21 Sep 2024, ended Stevenage 0–2 Exeter City — a Exeter City win.
Exeter City have the better head-to-head record despite being the visitors — 3 wins from 5 H2H matches. Home advantage alone is not a reason to dismiss that.
Trading
Stevenage half-time and goal-timing data (last 72 games, 35 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 66% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; of the 22 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 32%; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time; they fail to score in 32% of games.
Exeter City half-time and goal-timing data (last 72 games, 35 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 77% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; of the 17 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; of the 30 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 27%; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 51% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Stevenage 39% versus Exeter City 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Stevenage 43% | Exeter City 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Stevenage 1.22 xG and Exeter City 0.96 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Stevenage attack 0.927 / defence 0.984 | Exeter City attack 0.820 / defence 1.025. League average goals — home 1.280 / away 1.192. Data: built from Stevenage's last 72 games and Exeter City's last 74.
Result probabilities: Stevenage 42% | Draw 29% | Exeter City 29%. Fair-value odds: Stevenage 2.38 | Draw 3.45 | Exeter City 3.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS Yes probability 43% | Total xG 2.18. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.18 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 57% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
Exeter City have the better head-to-head record in our data (3 wins to 0), but Stevenage carry stronger current form — do not let the head-to-head record alone dictate your assessment.
On the Poisson output, Stevenage are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Stevenage if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.18 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 63% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Stevenage's last 10 home games and Exeter City's last 10 away games) averaging 2.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 57% on No. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Stevenage 40% (last 10 home games) | Exeter City 30% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Stevenage vs Exeter City | Competition: League One, matchday 30 | Venue: Lamex Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 1 February 2025 at 12:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Stevenage 42% | Draw 29% | Exeter City 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% (Under 63%) | BTTS Yes 43% (No 57%) | xG Stevenage 1.22 / Exeter City 0.96 • Poisson strength factors: Stevenage attack 0.927 / def 0.984 | Exeter City attack 0.820 / def 1.025 | league avg home 1.280 / away 1.192 • Poisson stance: Stevenage (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.22
Stevenage xG
Expected Goals
0.96
Exeter City xG
43%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Stevenage vs Exeter City FAQs
What time does Stevenage vs Exeter City kick off?
Stevenage vs Exeter City kicked off at 12:30 UK time on Saturday 1 February 2025 at Lamex Stadium.
What was the final score in Stevenage vs Exeter City?
Stevenage 4 - 1 Exeter City.
Where is Stevenage vs Exeter City being played?
The match is being played at Lamex Stadium.
What competition is Stevenage vs Exeter City part of?
Stevenage vs Exeter City is a League One fixture (matchday 30) (England).
Who is favourite to win Stevenage vs Exeter City?
Our statistical model gives Stevenage a 42% chance of winning, Exeter City a 29% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Stevenage the favourite.
Will both teams score in Stevenage vs Exeter City?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Stevenage and Exeter City will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (57%).
Will Stevenage vs Exeter City have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (63%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Stevenage's attacking strength (0.93x league average) is weighed against Exeter City's defensive record (1.02x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.22. Flip it around — Exeter City's attack (0.82x) against Stevenage's defence (0.98x) — and the away total comes out at 0.96.
These ratings are built from Stevenage's last 72 games and Exeter City's last 74 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.0%), 1-0 (12.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Stevenage Win
42%
2.38
29%
3.45
29%
3.44
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
0 – 0
11.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.22
Stevenage xG
Total xG
2.18
0.96
Exeter City xG
2.38
42%
Home win
3.45
29%
Draw
3.44
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.30
57%
BTTS No
1.77
Clean Sheet
38%
2.61
30%
3.38
Win to Nil
16%
6.23
9%
11.62
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.3 | 10.9 | 5.2 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.8 | 13.2 | 6.4 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.4 | 8.1 | 3.9 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 3.3 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Stevenage vs Exeter City Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Stevenage vs Exeter City?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Stevenage and Exeter City expected to score?
The model projects 1.22 expected goals for Stevenage and 0.96 for Exeter City, a combined total of 2.18.
How confident is the prediction model for Stevenage vs Exeter City?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Stevenage's recent record stands at 29W 21D 22L from 72 games, a 1.50 PPG return, with D-D-L-W-W in the last five.
Exeter City, meanwhile, have gone 25W 14D 33L across 72 games — 1.24 PPG, with L-L-D-L-L in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.50 PPG for Stevenage against 1.24 for Exeter City. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Stevenage have managed 16W 9D 10L from their last 35 home games — 1.63 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Exeter City's away record stands at 13W 4D 18L across their last 35 away games, a 1.23 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Stevenage are averaging 1.11 goals scored and 0.97 conceded per game recently; Exeter City are on 1.04 scored and 1.43 conceded.
Defensively: Stevenage have kept a clean sheet in 46% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 72 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Stevenage
Blended
Exeter City
Current Season
Stevenage (Home) vs Exeter City (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Stevenage
Blended
Exeter City
Current Season
❓ Stevenage vs Exeter City Form FAQs
What form are Stevenage and Exeter City in coming into this match?
Stevenage have gone 29W 21D 22L in their last 72 games (1.50 PPG), while Exeter City have gone 25W 14D 33L in their last 72 (1.24 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Stevenage at home or Exeter City away?
Stevenage's home record (1.63 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Stevenage at home: 1.63 PPG; Exeter City away: 1.23 PPG.
Have Stevenage or Exeter City been keeping clean sheets recently?
Stevenage have kept a clean sheet in 46% of their recent games, Exeter City in 28%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 8 H2H matches between Stevenage and Exeter City, the earliest from October 2021. They cover more than one competition — League Two, League One. The most recent was on 17 January 2026, roughly 9 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Stevenage won Stevenage 4-1 Exeter City on 1 Feb 2025, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Stevenage have gone 2W 2D 0L from the 4 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Exeter City — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Stevenage
2
Draws
4
Exeter City
Recent Meetings
❓ Stevenage vs Exeter City H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Stevenage and Exeter City?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, Stevenage have won 2, Exeter City have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Stevenage and Exeter City last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 17 January 2026: Exeter City 3-0 Stevenage.
Who has won more matches between Stevenage and Exeter City?
Exeter City have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Stevenage are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 38% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Exeter City are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 27% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Stevenage 40%, Exeter City 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Stevenage) and 51% (Exeter City).
On the defensive side: Stevenage keep a clean sheet in 46% of their matches; Stevenage have failed to score in 26% of games; Exeter City in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Stevenage home games / Exeter City away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Stevenage vs Exeter City Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Stevenage and Exeter City matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Stevenage's recent matches and 43% of Exeter City's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Stevenage and Exeter City matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Stevenage's recent games and 51% of Exeter City's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Stevenage and Exeter City matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 66% of Stevenage's recent matches and 77% of Exeter City's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Stevenage run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Exeter City.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Stevenage beat Exeter City 4-1 at Lamex Stadium, Regular Season - 30, in the League One. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Stevenage 1.22 xG and Exeter City 0.96 xG, a combined 2.18. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Stevenage beat their projection by 2.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Stevenage attack 0.93 / defence 0.98 against Exeter City attack 0.82 / defence 1.02, drawn from 72/74 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Stevenage 42% | Draw 29% | Exeter City 29%, with Stevenage to win its most likely call at 42%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. Over 3.5 was 18% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Stevenage 43%, Exeter City 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Stevenage's trading profile (72 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and conceded here.
Exeter City's trading profile (72 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Stevenage 1.50 PPG, Exeter City 1.24 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Stevenage win broke the near-deadlock. Stevenage (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.17 average — above their attacking norm. Exeter City (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.57 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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