Stevenage 2-1 Cheltenham – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Stevenage at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Stevenage vs Cheltenham fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Stevenage and Cheltenham meet at The Lamex Stadium in League One, Regular Season - 46. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 27 April 2024 at 12:30 UTC.
Form
Stevenage (all games): 1W 5D 4L across 10 League One fixtures this term — 0.80 PPG. Last five: D L W L D. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
At home at The Lamex Stadium, Stevenage have gone 4W 2D 4L this season (10 games, 1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at The Lamex Stadium. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Stevenage are significantly better at The Lamex Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Cheltenham's overall League One record this term: 3W 1D 6L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: L L W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Cheltenham have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 0.80 PPG for Stevenage against 1.00 for Cheltenham. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Stevenage lead 1W to 0W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 23 Sep 2023, ended 3–0 with Stevenage winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Stevenage — key trading statistics (91 games, 45 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 63% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
Cheltenham — key trading statistics (91 games, 45 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Stevenage 45% versus Cheltenham 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Stevenage 42% | Cheltenham 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Stevenage 1.00 xG and Cheltenham 0.84 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Stevenage attack 0.748 / defence 0.862 | Cheltenham attack 0.820 / defence 1.029. League average goals — home 1.302 / away 1.193. Stevenage's attack strength of 0.748 is below the league average — the 1.00 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 45 Stevenage games / 91 Cheltenham games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Stevenage 38% | Draw 32% | Cheltenham 30%. Fair-value odds: Stevenage 2.63 | Draw 3.12 | Cheltenham 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 28% | BTTS probability 36% | Total xG 1.84. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 72% probability — total xG of 1.84 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 36% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Stevenage as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Stevenage if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 1.84 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 28% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 36% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Stevenage 30% | Cheltenham 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Stevenage vs Cheltenham | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 46 | Venue: The Lamex Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 27 Apr 2024, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Stevenage 38% | Draw 32% | Cheltenham 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 28% | BTTS 36% | xG Stevenage 1.00 / Cheltenham 0.84 • Poisson strength factors: Stevenage attack 0.748 / def 0.862 | Cheltenham attack 0.820 / def 1.029 | league avg home 1.302 / away 1.193 • Poisson stance: Stevenage (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.00
Stevenage xG
Expected Goals
0.84
Cheltenham xG
36%
BTTS
55%
Over 1.5
28%
Over 2.5
12%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Stevenage vs Cheltenham kick off?
Stevenage vs Cheltenham kicked off at 12:30 on Saturday 27 April 2024 at The Lamex Stadium.
What was the final score in Stevenage vs Cheltenham?
Stevenage 2 - 1 Cheltenham.
Where is Stevenage vs Cheltenham being played?
The match is being played at The Lamex Stadium.
What competition is Stevenage vs Cheltenham part of?
Stevenage vs Cheltenham is a Regular Season - 46 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Stevenage vs Cheltenham?
Our statistical model gives Stevenage a 38% chance of winning, Cheltenham a 30% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Stevenage the favourite.
Will both teams score in Stevenage vs Cheltenham?
Our model estimates a 36% probability that both Stevenage and Cheltenham will score (BTTS).
Will Stevenage vs Cheltenham have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 28%.
What is the head-to-head record between Stevenage and Cheltenham?
Record (1 meetings): Stevenage 1W | Draws 0 | Cheltenham 0W.
What form are Stevenage and Cheltenham in?
Stevenage (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-L-W-L-D. Cheltenham (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Stevenage's attack rating (0.75) and Cheltenham's defence rating (1.03), the model arrives at 1.00 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Cheltenham's attack (0.82x) against Stevenage's defence (0.86x) — and the away total comes out at 0.84.
These ratings are built from 45/91 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 17.6%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.1%), 1-0 (14.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 47% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Stevenage Win
38%
2.62
32%
3.10
30%
3.38
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
15.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
15.8%
Home win
0 – 1
13.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.00
Stevenage xG
Total xG
1.84
0.84
Cheltenham xG
2.62
38%
Home win
3.10
32%
Draw
3.38
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
55%
Over 1.5
1.82
45%
Under 1.5
2.22
28%
Over 2.5
3.57
72%
Under 2.5
1.39
12%
Over 3.5
8.33
88%
Under 3.5
1.14
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
36%
BTTS Yes
2.77
64%
BTTS No
1.56
Clean Sheet
43%
2.32
37%
2.72
Win to Nil
16%
6.09
11%
9.19
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15.8 | 13.3 | 5.6 | 1.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 15.8 | 13.3 | 5.6 | 1.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.9 | 6.7 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 2.6 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Stevenage vs Cheltenham?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.6%.
How many goals are Stevenage and Cheltenham expected to score?
The model projects 1.00 expected goals for Stevenage and 0.84 for Cheltenham, a combined total of 1.84.
How confident is the prediction model for Stevenage vs Cheltenham?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 91 outings, Stevenage have picked up 1.68 PPG on a 42W 27D 22L record — D-L-W-L-D across the most recent five.
Cheltenham's form line: 26W 20D 45L from 91 games, 1.08 PPG, last five L-L-W-L-W.
Put side by side, Stevenage are the form team by 0.60 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Cheltenham.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Stevenage have posted 1.96 PPG from 45 outings (26W 10D 9L).
On the road, Cheltenham have gone 11W 8D 26L from 45 away games — 0.91 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Stevenage come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Stevenage are averaging 1.27 goals scored and 0.92 conceded per game recently; Cheltenham are on 0.93 scored and 1.36 conceded.
Defensively: Stevenage have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 91 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Stevenage
Current Season
Cheltenham
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Stevenage and Cheltenham in coming into this match?
Stevenage have gone 42W 27D 22L in their last 91 games (1.68 PPG), while Cheltenham have gone 26W 20D 45L in their last 91 (1.08 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Stevenage at home or Cheltenham away?
Stevenage's home record (1.96 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Stevenage at home: 1.96 PPG; Cheltenham away: 0.91 PPG.
Have Stevenage or Cheltenham been keeping clean sheets recently?
Stevenage have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their recent games, Cheltenham in 29%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. It has been a while since the last meeting — 27 April 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Stevenage
0
Draws
0
Cheltenham
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Stevenage and Cheltenham?
From 2 meetings on record, Stevenage have won 2, Cheltenham have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Stevenage and Cheltenham last play each other?
They last met on 27 April 2024, when Stevenage 2-1 Cheltenham.
Who has won more matches between Stevenage and Cheltenham?
Stevenage have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Stevenage are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time.
Cheltenham are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Stevenage 40%, Cheltenham 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Stevenage) and 44% (Cheltenham).
On the defensive side: Stevenage keep a clean sheet in 53% of their matches; Cheltenham in 47%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Stevenage home games / Cheltenham away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Stevenage play Cheltenham?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Stevenage's recent matches and 38% of Cheltenham's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Stevenage vs Cheltenham usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Stevenage's recent games and 44% of Cheltenham's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Stevenage and Cheltenham tend to score early?
Stevenage have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Cheltenham in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Stevenage edge out Cheltenham 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Stevenage beat Cheltenham 2-1 at The Lamex Stadium, Regular Season - 46, in the League One. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Stevenage 1.00 xG and Cheltenham 0.84 xG, a combined 1.84. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Stevenage beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Stevenage attack 0.75 / defence 0.86 against Cheltenham attack 0.82 / defence 1.03, drawn from 45/91 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Stevenage 38% | Draw 32% | Cheltenham 30%, with Stevenage to win its most likely call at 38%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 28%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 55% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 36% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Stevenage 42%, Cheltenham 45%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Stevenage's trading profile (91 games, 45 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.
Cheltenham's trading profile (91 games, 45 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Stevenage arrived the stronger side — 1.68 PPG against 1.08. The form guide was vindicated by the result.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.