Shrewsbury 1-2 Blackpool – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Blackpool at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Shrewsbury vs Blackpool fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Shrewsbury and Blackpool meet at The Croud Meadow in League One, Regular Season - 18. This fixture gets under way on Wednesday 4 December 2024 at 19:45 UTC.
Form
Shrewsbury (all games): 2W 2D 6L across 10 League One fixtures this term — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L L L L W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. This season is still relatively young for Shrewsbury, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Shrewsbury's home record at The Croud Meadow: 2W 1D 7L from 10 League One appearances (0.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.
Blackpool's overall League One record this term: 2W 3D 5L from 10 games (0.90 PPG). Last five: D L D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Blackpool, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Blackpool's away record: 3W 1D 6L from 10 road trips in League One this season (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 0.80 PPG for Shrewsbury against 0.90 for Blackpool. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Shrewsbury lead 0W to 2W over the last 2 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 2 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 2 Mar 2024, ended 0–2 with Blackpool winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Shrewsbury — key trading statistics (62 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (home games); they fail to score in 50% of games.
Blackpool — key trading statistics (62 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 87% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Shrewsbury 37% versus Blackpool 45%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Shrewsbury 40% | Blackpool 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Shrewsbury 1.49 xG and Blackpool 1.49 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Shrewsbury attack 0.871 / defence 1.305 | Blackpool attack 1.034 / defence 1.279. League average goals — home 1.336 / away 1.105. Blackpool bring a strong defensive rating of 1.279 — this is suppressing Shrewsbury's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 62 Shrewsbury games / 63 Blackpool games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Shrewsbury 38% | Draw 24% | Blackpool 38%. Fair-value odds: Shrewsbury 2.63 | Draw 4.17 | Blackpool 2.63. The draw (24%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 2.98. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.98 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.49 / 1.49) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 24% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 38% and away win at 38% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
The Poisson model projects 2.98 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 57% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 60% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Shrewsbury 40% | Blackpool 60%.
The outsider holds a 38% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Shrewsbury vs Blackpool | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: The Croud Meadow • Kick-off: Wednesday 4 Dec 2024, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Shrewsbury 38% | Draw 24% | Blackpool 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 60% | xG Shrewsbury 1.49 / Blackpool 1.49 • Poisson strength factors: Shrewsbury attack 0.871 / def 1.305 | Blackpool attack 1.034 / def 1.279 | league avg home 1.336 / away 1.105 • Poisson stance: Draw (24%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.49
Shrewsbury xG
Expected Goals
1.49
Blackpool xG
60%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Shrewsbury vs Blackpool kick off?
Shrewsbury vs Blackpool kicked off at 19:45 on Wednesday 4 December 2024 at The Croud Meadow.
What was the final score in Shrewsbury vs Blackpool?
Shrewsbury 1 - 2 Blackpool.
Where is Shrewsbury vs Blackpool being played?
The match is being played at The Croud Meadow.
What competition is Shrewsbury vs Blackpool part of?
Shrewsbury vs Blackpool is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Shrewsbury vs Blackpool?
Our statistical model gives Shrewsbury a 38% chance of winning, Blackpool a 38% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Shrewsbury vs Blackpool?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Shrewsbury and Blackpool will score (BTTS).
Will Shrewsbury vs Blackpool have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Shrewsbury and Blackpool?
Record (2 meetings): Shrewsbury 0W | Draws 0 | Blackpool 2W.
What form are Shrewsbury and Blackpool in?
Shrewsbury (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-L-L-W. Blackpool (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-L-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Shrewsbury's attack rating (0.87) and Blackpool's defence rating (1.28), the model arrives at 1.49 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Blackpool's attack (1.03x) against Shrewsbury's defence (1.30x) — and the away total comes out at 1.49.
These ratings are built from 62/63 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.7%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.4%), 2-1 (8.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Blackpool Win
38%
2.65
24%
4.10
38%
2.64
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.4%
Away win
2 – 1
8.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.49
Shrewsbury xG
Total xG
2.98
1.49
Blackpool xG
2.65
38%
Home win
4.10
24%
Draw
2.64
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.67
40%
BTTS No
2.50
Clean Sheet
22%
4.45
23%
4.43
Win to Nil
8%
11.79
9%
11.69
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.1 | 7.6 | 5.7 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.6 | 11.3 | 8.4 | 4.2 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 8.4 | 6.3 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 4.2 | 3.1 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.5 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Shrewsbury vs Blackpool?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are Shrewsbury and Blackpool expected to score?
The model projects 1.49 expected goals for Shrewsbury and 1.49 for Blackpool, a combined total of 2.98.
How confident is the prediction model for Shrewsbury vs Blackpool?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Shrewsbury's recent record stands at 16W 11D 35L from 62 games, a 0.95 PPG return, with L-L-L-L-W in the last five. The sample for Shrewsbury is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Blackpool, meanwhile, have gone 25W 15D 22L across 62 games — 1.45 PPG, with D-L-D-L-W in their last five. The sample for Blackpool is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Blackpool by 0.50 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Shrewsbury heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Shrewsbury have managed 10W 4D 17L from 31 games — 1.10 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Blackpool's away record stands at 10W 4D 17L across 31 trips, a 1.10 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Shrewsbury are averaging 0.82 goals scored and 1.55 conceded per game recently; Blackpool are on 1.40 scored and 1.26 conceded.
Last 62 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Shrewsbury
Blended
Blackpool
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Shrewsbury and Blackpool in coming into this match?
Shrewsbury have gone 16W 11D 35L in their last 62 games (0.95 PPG), while Blackpool have gone 25W 15D 22L in their last 62 (1.45 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Shrewsbury at home or Blackpool away?
Shrewsbury's home record (1.10 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Shrewsbury at home: 1.10 PPG; Blackpool away: 1.10 PPG.
Have Shrewsbury or Blackpool been keeping clean sheets recently?
Shrewsbury have kept a clean sheet in 18% of their recent games, Blackpool in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. It has been a while since the last meeting — 1 January 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Blackpool won 4-0 on 18 Nov 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Shrewsbury have gone 0W 0D 2L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Blackpool — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Shrewsbury
1
Draws
3
Blackpool
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Shrewsbury and Blackpool?
From 4 meetings on record, Shrewsbury have won 0, Blackpool have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Shrewsbury and Blackpool last play each other?
They last met on 1 January 2025, when Blackpool 1-1 Shrewsbury.
Who has won more matches between Shrewsbury and Blackpool?
Blackpool have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Shrewsbury see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Blackpool are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 87% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Shrewsbury 39%, Blackpool 39% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 39% (Shrewsbury) and 48% (Blackpool).
On the defensive side: Shrewsbury have failed to score in 45% of games; Blackpool in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Shrewsbury home games / Blackpool away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Shrewsbury play Blackpool?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 39% of Shrewsbury's recent matches and 39% of Blackpool's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Shrewsbury vs Blackpool usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 39% of Shrewsbury's recent games and 48% of Blackpool's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Shrewsbury and Blackpool tend to score early?
Shrewsbury have had a goal before half-time in 58% of their recent matches, Blackpool in 87% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Blackpool edge out Shrewsbury 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Blackpool beat Shrewsbury 1-2 at The Croud Meadow, Regular Season - 18, in the League One. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Shrewsbury 1.49 xG and Blackpool 1.49 xG, a combined 2.98. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shrewsbury attack 0.87 / defence 1.30 against Blackpool attack 1.03 / defence 1.28, drawn from 62/63 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Shrewsbury 38% | Draw 24% | Blackpool 38%, with Shrewsbury to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Blackpool win had been the model's second-ranked read at 38%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Shrewsbury 40%, Blackpool 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 41%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Shrewsbury's trading profile (62 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 37% of their matches — today it did.
Blackpool's trading profile (62 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Blackpool arrived the stronger side — 1.45 PPG against 0.95. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Blackpool (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.13 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.