Portsmouth 2-1 Stevenage – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Portsmouth at 37% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Portsmouth face Stevenage.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Portsmouth host Stevenage at Fratton Park in League One (matchday 26). Kick-off is Monday 1 January 2024 at 15:00 UK time.
Form Guide
Portsmouth — last 10 games: 5W 3D 2L, averaging 1.80 points per game. Last five: W W D L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
Portsmouth's home record over their last 10 home games: 6W 3D 1L (2.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Across their last 10 games, Stevenage have recorded 6W 3D 1L — 2.10 PPG. Last five: D W D L W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 0.80. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Stevenage have gone 5W 1D 4L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.60 is notably below their overall 2.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.80 PPG (Portsmouth) versus 2.10 (Stevenage). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H Record
The H2H picture is flat: the 1 H2H match we hold have produced 0 wins for Portsmouth, 0 for Stevenage and 1 draw. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 1 H2H match in our data have been tight, averaging just 0.0 goals per game — a meaningful input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent of those, on 26 Aug 2023, ended Portsmouth 0–0 Stevenage — a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.0 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Portsmouth trading profile (last 70 games, 35 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 63% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 61% of the time; of the 15 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 40%; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time.
Stevenage trading profile (last 70 games, 35 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 80% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; of the 11 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 46%; BTTS occurs in 49% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Portsmouth 50% versus Stevenage 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Portsmouth 43% | Stevenage 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Portsmouth 1.30 xG and Stevenage 1.28 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Portsmouth attack 0.994 / defence 1.022 | Stevenage attack 1.118 / defence 0.961. League average goals — home 1.365 / away 1.122. Data: built from Portsmouth's last 70 games and Stevenage's last 24.
Result probabilities: Portsmouth 37% | Draw 28% | Stevenage 36%. Fair-value odds: Portsmouth 2.74 | Draw 3.57 | Stevenage 2.82. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS Yes probability 53% | Total xG 2.59. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.59 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 53% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Portsmouth as the most likely outcome at 37% — marginal model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Portsmouth offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.59 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 52% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Portsmouth 50% (last 10 home games) | Stevenage 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Portsmouth vs Stevenage | Competition: League One, matchday 26 | Venue: Fratton Park • Kick-off: Monday 1 January 2024 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Portsmouth 37% | Draw 28% | Stevenage 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% (Under 52%) | BTTS Yes 53% (No 47%) | xG Portsmouth 1.30 / Stevenage 1.28 • Poisson strength factors: Portsmouth attack 0.994 / def 1.022 | Stevenage attack 1.118 / def 0.961 | league avg home 1.365 / away 1.122 • Poisson stance: Portsmouth (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.30
Portsmouth xG
Expected Goals
1.28
Stevenage xG
53%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Portsmouth vs Stevenage FAQs
What time does Portsmouth vs Stevenage kick off?
Portsmouth vs Stevenage kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Monday 1 January 2024 at Fratton Park.
What was the final score in Portsmouth vs Stevenage?
Portsmouth 2 - 1 Stevenage.
Where is Portsmouth vs Stevenage being played?
The match is being played at Fratton Park.
What competition is Portsmouth vs Stevenage part of?
Portsmouth vs Stevenage is a League One fixture (matchday 26) (England).
Who is favourite to win Portsmouth vs Stevenage?
Our statistical model gives Portsmouth a 37% chance of winning, Stevenage a 36% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Portsmouth the favourite.
Will both teams score in Portsmouth vs Stevenage?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Portsmouth and Stevenage will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Portsmouth vs Stevenage have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (52%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Portsmouth's attacking strength (0.99x league average) is weighed against Stevenage's defensive record (0.96x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.30. The same calculation in reverse, Stevenage's attack versus Portsmouth's defence, projects 1.28 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Portsmouth's last 70 games and Stevenage's last 24 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.2%), 2-1 (8.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Portsmouth Win
37%
2.74
28%
3.57
36%
2.82
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.8%
Home win
0 – 1
9.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.30
Portsmouth xG
Total xG
2.59
1.28
Stevenage xG
2.74
37%
Home win
3.57
28%
Draw
2.82
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.87
47%
BTTS No
2.15
Clean Sheet
28%
3.60
27%
3.68
Win to Nil
10%
9.87
10%
10.38
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.5 | 9.7 | 6.2 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.8 | 12.6 | 8.1 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 8.2 | 5.3 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 3.6 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Portsmouth vs Stevenage Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Portsmouth vs Stevenage?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Portsmouth and Stevenage expected to score?
The model projects 1.30 expected goals for Portsmouth and 1.28 for Stevenage, a combined total of 2.59.
How confident is the prediction model for Portsmouth vs Stevenage?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Portsmouth's recent record stands at 31W 27D 12L from 70 games, a 1.71 PPG return, with W-W-D-L-D in the last five.
Stevenage, meanwhile, have gone 36W 20D 14L across 70 games — 1.83 PPG, with D-W-D-L-W in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Portsmouth on 1.71 PPG, Stevenage on 1.83. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Portsmouth have managed 16W 15D 4L from their last 35 home games — 1.80 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Stevenage's away record stands at 14W 12D 9L across their last 35 away games, a 1.54 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Portsmouth are averaging 1.43 goals scored and 0.99 conceded per game recently; Stevenage are on 1.39 scored and 0.89 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
Defensively: Portsmouth have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their games; Stevenage in 43% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 70 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Portsmouth
Blended
Stevenage
Blended
Portsmouth (Home) vs Stevenage (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Portsmouth
Blended
Stevenage
Blended
❓ Portsmouth vs Stevenage Form FAQs
What form are Portsmouth and Stevenage in coming into this match?
Portsmouth have gone 31W 27D 12L in their last 70 games (1.71 PPG), while Stevenage have gone 36W 20D 14L in their last 70 (1.83 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Portsmouth at home or Stevenage away?
Portsmouth's home record (1.80 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Portsmouth at home: 1.80 PPG; Stevenage away: 1.54 PPG.
Have Portsmouth or Stevenage been keeping clean sheets recently?
Portsmouth have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their recent games, Stevenage in 43%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 2 H2H matches in our data, going back to August 2023. All of them came in League One. The most recent in our data was on 1 January 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Portsmouth
1
Draws
0
Stevenage
Recent Meetings
❓ Portsmouth vs Stevenage H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Portsmouth and Stevenage?
Across the 2 head-to-head matches in our data, Portsmouth have won 1, Stevenage have won 0, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Portsmouth and Stevenage last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 1 January 2024: Portsmouth 2-1 Stevenage.
Who has won more matches between Portsmouth and Stevenage?
Portsmouth have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from the 2 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Portsmouth are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 57% of those situations.
Stevenage are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 34% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 40% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Portsmouth 54%, Stevenage 49% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Portsmouth) and 40% (Stevenage).
On the defensive side: Portsmouth keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches; Stevenage in 31%; Stevenage in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Portsmouth home games / Stevenage away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Portsmouth vs Stevenage Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Portsmouth and Stevenage matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Portsmouth's recent matches and 49% of Stevenage's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Portsmouth and Stevenage matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Portsmouth's recent games and 40% of Stevenage's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Portsmouth and Stevenage matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 63% of Portsmouth's recent matches and 80% of Stevenage's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Portsmouth edge out Stevenage 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Portsmouth beat Stevenage 2-1 at Fratton Park, Regular Season - 26, in the League One. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Portsmouth 1.30 xG and Stevenage 1.28 xG, a combined 2.59. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Portsmouth attack 0.99 / defence 1.02 against Stevenage attack 1.12 / defence 0.96, drawn from 70/24 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Portsmouth 37% | Draw 28% | Stevenage 36%, with Portsmouth to win its most likely call at 37%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Portsmouth 43%, Stevenage 43%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Portsmouth's trading profile (70 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and conceded here.
Stevenage's trading profile (70 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Portsmouth 1.71 PPG, Stevenage 1.83 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Portsmouth win broke the near-deadlock. Stevenage (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.03 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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