Portsmouth 3-1 Cambridge United – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Portsmouth at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this Portsmouth vs Cambridge United fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a League One clash, Regular Season - 33 as Portsmouth welcome Cambridge United to Fratton Park. Kick-off is set for Tuesday 13 February 2024 at 19:45 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all League One games this season, Portsmouth have gone 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.70 PPG return. Last five: W W D W W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Portsmouth at Fratton Park this season: 6W 2D 2L from 10 home games — 2.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Cambridge United — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 League One fixtures this season — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W D D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
When travelling in League One this season, Cambridge United have posted 1W 4D 5L from 10 away outings — 0.70 PPG. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Portsmouth 1.70 PPG, Cambridge United 1.50 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 5 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Portsmouth, 1 for Cambridge United and 2 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.8 per contest from 5 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 24 Oct 2023, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.8 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Portsmouth in-play tendencies (75 games, 36 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
Cambridge United in-play tendencies (75 games, 36 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Portsmouth 51% versus Cambridge United 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Portsmouth 45% | Cambridge United 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Portsmouth 1.53 xG and Cambridge United 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Portsmouth attack 1.094 / defence 1.067 | Cambridge United attack 0.825 / defence 1.067. League average goals — home 1.310 / away 1.172. Data: 78 Portsmouth games / 75 Cambridge United games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Portsmouth 49% | Draw 26% | Cambridge United 26%. Fair-value odds: Portsmouth 2.04 | Draw 3.85 | Cambridge United 3.85. Portsmouth hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.56. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.56 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Portsmouth at 49% — moderate model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Portsmouth offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.56 combined xG gives a 47% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by H2H averaging 1.8 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 50% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Portsmouth 50% | Cambridge United 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Portsmouth vs Cambridge United | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 33 | Venue: Fratton Park • Kick-off: Tuesday 13 Feb 2024, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Portsmouth 49% | Draw 26% | Cambridge United 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 50% | xG Portsmouth 1.53 / Cambridge United 1.03 • Poisson strength factors: Portsmouth attack 1.094 / def 1.067 | Cambridge United attack 0.825 / def 1.067 | league avg home 1.310 / away 1.172 • Poisson stance: Portsmouth (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.53
Portsmouth xG
Expected Goals
1.03
Cambridge United xG
50%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Portsmouth vs Cambridge United kick off?
Portsmouth vs Cambridge United kicked off at 19:45 on Tuesday 13 February 2024 at Fratton Park.
What was the final score in Portsmouth vs Cambridge United?
Portsmouth 3 - 1 Cambridge United.
Where is Portsmouth vs Cambridge United being played?
The match is being played at Fratton Park.
What competition is Portsmouth vs Cambridge United part of?
Portsmouth vs Cambridge United is a Regular Season - 33 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Portsmouth vs Cambridge United?
Our statistical model gives Portsmouth a 49% chance of winning, Cambridge United a 26% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Portsmouth the favourite.
Will both teams score in Portsmouth vs Cambridge United?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Portsmouth and Cambridge United will score (BTTS).
Will Portsmouth vs Cambridge United have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Portsmouth and Cambridge United?
Record (5 meetings): Portsmouth 2W | Draws 2 | Cambridge United 1W.
What form are Portsmouth and Cambridge United in?
Portsmouth (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-D-W-W. Cambridge United (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Portsmouth's attack at 1.09x the league average against Cambridge United's defence at 1.07x — combine the two and it projects 1.53 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Cambridge United's attack versus Portsmouth's defence, projects 1.03 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 78/75 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (10.2%), 2-1 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Portsmouth Win
49%
2.05
26%
3.90
26%
3.91
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.8%
Home win
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.53
Portsmouth xG
Total xG
2.56
1.03
Cambridge United xG
2.05
49%
Home win
3.90
26%
Draw
3.91
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.98
50%
BTTS No
2.02
Clean Sheet
36%
2.81
22%
4.61
Win to Nil
17%
5.75
6%
18.04
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.7 | 8.0 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.8 | 12.2 | 6.3 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.0 | 9.3 | 4.8 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.6 | 4.7 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Portsmouth vs Cambridge United?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Portsmouth and Cambridge United expected to score?
The model projects 1.53 expected goals for Portsmouth and 1.03 for Cambridge United, a combined total of 2.56.
How confident is the prediction model for Portsmouth vs Cambridge United?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Portsmouth come into this having played 75 games, going 35W 26D 14L for 1.75 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-D-W-W.
On the other side, Cambridge United sit at 1.08 PPG from 75 outings (22W 15D 38L), a run that reads W-D-D-W-L across their last five.
Portsmouth carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.67 PPG clear of Cambridge United — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Portsmouth's home form reads 17W 14D 5L across 36 games on their own ground, a 1.81 PPG return.
Away from home, Cambridge United have taken 0.69 points per game from 36 outings (6W 7D 23L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Portsmouth come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Portsmouth are averaging 1.43 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Cambridge United are on 0.88 scored and 1.37 conceded.
Defensively: Portsmouth have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 75 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Portsmouth
Current Season
Cambridge United
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Portsmouth and Cambridge United in coming into this match?
Portsmouth have gone 35W 26D 14L in their last 75 games (1.75 PPG), while Cambridge United have gone 22W 15D 38L in their last 75 (1.08 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Portsmouth at home or Cambridge United away?
Portsmouth's home record (1.81 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Portsmouth at home: 1.81 PPG; Cambridge United away: 0.69 PPG.
Have Portsmouth or Cambridge United been keeping clean sheets recently?
Portsmouth have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, Cambridge United in 27%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. It has been a while since the last meeting — 13 February 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 16 Aug 2022, when Portsmouth won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Portsmouth's record when hosting Cambridge United specifically: 2W 0D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Portsmouth
2
Draws
1
Cambridge United
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Portsmouth and Cambridge United?
From 6 meetings on record, Portsmouth have won 3, Cambridge United have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Portsmouth and Cambridge United last play each other?
They last met on 13 February 2024, when Portsmouth 3-1 Cambridge United.
Who has won more matches between Portsmouth and Cambridge United?
Portsmouth have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Portsmouth are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Cambridge United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Portsmouth 56%, Cambridge United 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Portsmouth) and 50% (Cambridge United).
On the defensive side: Portsmouth keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Cambridge United in 47%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Portsmouth home games / Cambridge United away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Portsmouth play Cambridge United?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of Portsmouth's recent matches and 47% of Cambridge United's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Portsmouth vs Cambridge United usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Portsmouth's recent games and 50% of Cambridge United's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Portsmouth and Cambridge United tend to score early?
Portsmouth have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Cambridge United in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Portsmouth cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Cambridge United.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Portsmouth beat Cambridge United 3-1 at Fratton Park, Regular Season - 33, in the League One. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Portsmouth 1.53 xG and Cambridge United 1.03 xG, a combined 2.56. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Portsmouth beat their projection by 1.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Portsmouth attack 1.09 / defence 1.07 against Cambridge United attack 0.82 / defence 1.07, drawn from 78/75 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Portsmouth 49% | Draw 26% | Cambridge United 26%, with Portsmouth to win its most likely call at 49%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. Over 3.5 was 26% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Portsmouth 45%, Cambridge United 43%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Portsmouth's trading profile (75 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Cambridge United's trading profile (75 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Portsmouth arrived the stronger side — 1.75 PPG against 1.08. Form held, and they took the win. Portsmouth (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.47 average — above their attacking norm. Cambridge United (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.69 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.