Port Vale 1-3 Plymouth – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Plymouth at 53% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Port Vale vs Plymouth encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Plymouth make the trip to Vale Park to face Port Vale in League One, Regular Season - 46. The match kicks off on Sunday 7 May 2023 at 12:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Port Vale have collected 0.60 PPG across 10 League One outings this season: 1W 3D 6L. Last five: D L L W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Port Vale at Vale Park this season: 3W 2D 5L from 10 home games — 1.10 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.60 — Port Vale are significantly better at Vale Park than their overall form suggests.
Plymouth (all games): 8W 0D 2L across 10 League One outings this term — 2.40 points per game. Last five: W W W W W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 0.80. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Plymouth away from home this season: 5W 2D 3L from 10 away games — 1.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.70 is notably below their overall 2.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On a straight form reading, Plymouth are the stronger side — 1.80 PPG clear of the hosts (2.40 vs 0.60). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Port Vale 1W, Plymouth 0W, 0D.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 2 Dec 2022, ended 2–0 with Port Vale winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Port Vale half-time and goal-timing data (91 games, 44 at home): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games).
Plymouth half-time and goal-timing data (91 games, 44 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Port Vale 52% versus Plymouth 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Port Vale 48% | Plymouth 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Port Vale 0.86 xG and Plymouth 1.55 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Port Vale attack 0.711 / defence 1.163 | Plymouth attack 1.176 / defence 0.913. League average goals — home 1.326 / away 1.134. Port Vale's attack strength of 0.711 is below the league average — the 0.86 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 45 Port Vale games / 91 Plymouth games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Port Vale 21% | Draw 26% | Plymouth 53%. Fair-value odds: Port Vale 4.76 | Draw 3.85 | Plymouth 1.89. Plymouth hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.41. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.41 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Plymouth at 53% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Plymouth if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.41 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 43% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 46% on No. Form rates corroborate: Port Vale 40% | Plymouth 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Port Vale vs Plymouth | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 46 | Venue: Vale Park • Kick-off: Sunday 7 May 2023, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Port Vale 21% | Draw 26% | Plymouth 53% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 46% | xG Port Vale 0.86 / Plymouth 1.55 • Poisson strength factors: Port Vale attack 0.711 / def 1.163 | Plymouth attack 1.176 / def 0.913 | league avg home 1.326 / away 1.134 • Poisson stance: Plymouth (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.86
Port Vale xG
Expected Goals
1.55
Plymouth xG
46%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Port Vale vs Plymouth kick off?
Port Vale vs Plymouth kicked off at 12:00 on Sunday 7 May 2023 at Vale Park.
What was the final score in Port Vale vs Plymouth?
Port Vale 1 - 3 Plymouth.
Where is Port Vale vs Plymouth being played?
The match is being played at Vale Park.
What competition is Port Vale vs Plymouth part of?
Port Vale vs Plymouth is a Regular Season - 46 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Port Vale vs Plymouth?
Our statistical model gives Port Vale a 21% chance of winning, Plymouth a 53% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Plymouth the favourite.
Will both teams score in Port Vale vs Plymouth?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Port Vale and Plymouth will score (BTTS).
Will Port Vale vs Plymouth have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Port Vale and Plymouth?
Record (1 meetings): Port Vale 1W | Draws 0 | Plymouth 0W.
What form are Port Vale and Plymouth in?
Port Vale (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.90 | L5 D-L-L-W-L. Plymouth (all comps): 8W-0D-2L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Port Vale's attack at 0.71x the league average against Plymouth's defence at 0.91x — combine the two and it projects 0.86 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Plymouth's attack (1.18x) against Port Vale's defence (1.16x) — and the away total comes out at 1.55.
These ratings are built from 45/91 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (12.3%), 0-2 (10.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Plymouth Win
21%
4.83
26%
3.86
53%
1.87
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.9%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
0 – 2
10.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.86
Port Vale xG
Total xG
2.41
1.55
Plymouth xG
4.83
21%
Home win
3.86
26%
Draw
1.87
53%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.19
54%
BTTS No
1.84
Clean Sheet
21%
4.72
42%
2.37
Win to Nil
4%
22.79
23%
4.44
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.0 | 13.9 | 10.8 | 5.6 | 2.2 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 7.7 | 12.0 | 9.3 | 4.8 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 3.3 | 5.2 | 4.0 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.0 | 1.5 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Port Vale vs Plymouth?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Port Vale and Plymouth expected to score?
The model projects 0.86 expected goals for Port Vale and 1.55 for Plymouth, a combined total of 2.41.
How confident is the prediction model for Port Vale vs Plymouth?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 91 outings, Port Vale have picked up 1.44 PPG on a 37W 20D 34L record — D-L-L-W-L across the most recent five.
Plymouth's form line: 53W 19D 19L from 91 games, 1.96 PPG, last five W-W-W-W-W.
Put side by side, Plymouth are the form team by 0.52 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Port Vale.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Port Vale have posted 1.57 PPG from 44 outings (20W 9D 15L).
On the road, Plymouth have gone 19W 14D 11L from 44 away games — 1.61 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Port Vale are averaging 1.31 goals scored and 1.26 conceded per game recently; Plymouth are on 1.62 scored and 1.03 conceded.
Defensively: Plymouth in 40% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 91 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Port Vale
Current Season
Plymouth
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Port Vale and Plymouth in coming into this match?
Port Vale have gone 37W 20D 34L in their last 91 games (1.44 PPG), while Plymouth have gone 53W 19D 19L in their last 91 (1.96 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Port Vale at home or Plymouth away?
Plymouth's away record (1.61 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Port Vale at home: 1.57 PPG; Plymouth away: 1.61 PPG.
Have Port Vale or Plymouth been keeping clean sheets recently?
Port Vale have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Plymouth in 40%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. They last met on 25 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Plymouth have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Port Vale have gone 0W 0D 2L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Plymouth — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Port Vale
0
Draws
3
Plymouth
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Port Vale and Plymouth?
From 4 meetings on record, Port Vale have won 1, Plymouth have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Port Vale and Plymouth last play each other?
They last met on 25 April 2026, when Plymouth 2-1 Port Vale.
Who has won more matches between Port Vale and Plymouth?
Plymouth have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Port Vale are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Plymouth are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Port Vale 46%, Plymouth 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Port Vale) and 52% (Plymouth).
On the defensive side: Port Vale keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Port Vale home games / Plymouth away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Port Vale play Plymouth?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Port Vale's recent matches and 57% of Plymouth's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Port Vale vs Plymouth usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Port Vale's recent games and 52% of Plymouth's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Port Vale and Plymouth tend to score early?
Port Vale have had a goal before half-time in 66% of their recent matches, Plymouth in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Plymouth cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Port Vale.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Plymouth beat Port Vale 1-3 at Vale Park, Regular Season - 46, in the League One. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Port Vale 0.86 xG and Plymouth 1.55 xG, a combined 2.41. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Plymouth outscored their 1.55 projection by 1.4. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Port Vale attack 0.71 / defence 1.16 against Plymouth attack 1.18 / defence 0.91, drawn from 45/91 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Port Vale 21% | Draw 26% | Plymouth 53%, with Plymouth to win its most likely call at 53%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. Over 3.5 was 22% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Port Vale 48%, Plymouth 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Port Vale's trading profile (91 games, 44 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Plymouth's trading profile (91 games, 44 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Plymouth arrived the stronger side — 1.96 PPG against 1.44. That form edge translated into the three points. Port Vale (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.11 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Plymouth (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.61 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.