Plymouth 0-0 Sunderland – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Plymouth at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this Plymouth vs Sunderland fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a League One clash, Regular Season - 44 as Plymouth welcome Sunderland to Home Park. Kick-off is set for Monday 18 April 2022 at 15:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all League One games this season, Plymouth have gone 7W 1D 2L from 10 outings — a 2.20 PPG return. Last five: W L W D L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 0.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.30 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 8 clean sheets from 10 games (80%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
At home at Home Park, Plymouth have gone 8W 0D 2L this season (10 games, 2.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.30 conceded per game. 8 clean sheets from 10 home games (80%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Home Park. At home, both teams have scored in only 10% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Sunderland stand at 6W 3D 1L from 10 League One matches — 2.10 PPG. Last five: W D W W W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 0.70. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
Sunderland's away record: 3W 5D 2L from 10 road trips in League One this season (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.40 is notably below their overall 2.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 2.20 PPG (Plymouth) versus 2.10 (Sunderland). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Plymouth, 1 for Sunderland and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 11 Dec 2021, ended 1–2 with Sunderland winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Plymouth in-play tendencies (42 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
Sunderland in-play tendencies (42 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Plymouth 45% versus Sunderland 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Plymouth 45% | Sunderland 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Plymouth 1.36 xG and Sunderland 0.77 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Plymouth attack 1.024 / defence 0.713 | Sunderland attack 0.910 / defence 1.193. League average goals — home 1.117 / away 1.182. Plymouth's defence rating of 0.713 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 43 Plymouth games / 42 Sunderland games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Plymouth 49% | Draw 31% | Sunderland 19%. Fair-value odds: Plymouth 2.04 | Draw 3.23 | Sunderland 5.26. Plymouth hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.13. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.13 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Plymouth as the most likely outcome at 49% — moderate model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Plymouth offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.13 combined xG gives a 36% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 41% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Plymouth 10% | Sunderland 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Plymouth vs Sunderland | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 44 | Venue: Home Park • Kick-off: Monday 18 Apr 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Plymouth 49% | Draw 31% | Sunderland 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 41% | xG Plymouth 1.36 / Sunderland 0.77 • Poisson strength factors: Plymouth attack 1.024 / def 0.713 | Sunderland attack 0.910 / def 1.193 | league avg home 1.117 / away 1.182 • Poisson stance: Plymouth (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.36
Plymouth xG
Expected Goals
0.77
Sunderland xG
41%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Plymouth vs Sunderland kick off?
Plymouth vs Sunderland kicked off at 15:00 on Monday 18 April 2022 at Home Park.
What was the final score in Plymouth vs Sunderland?
Plymouth 0 - 0 Sunderland.
Where is Plymouth vs Sunderland being played?
The match is being played at Home Park.
What competition is Plymouth vs Sunderland part of?
Plymouth vs Sunderland is a Regular Season - 44 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Plymouth vs Sunderland?
Our statistical model gives Plymouth a 49% chance of winning, Sunderland a 19% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Plymouth the favourite.
Will both teams score in Plymouth vs Sunderland?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Plymouth and Sunderland will score (BTTS).
Will Plymouth vs Sunderland have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Plymouth and Sunderland?
Record (1 meetings): Plymouth 0W | Draws 0 | Sunderland 1W.
What form are Plymouth and Sunderland in?
Plymouth (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.30 | L5 W-L-W-D-L. Sunderland (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-D-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Plymouth's attacking strength (1.02x league average) is weighed against Sunderland's defensive record (1.19x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.36. The same calculation in reverse, Sunderland's attack versus Plymouth's defence, projects 0.77 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 43/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-0, at 14.6%. Close behind: 1-1 (14.0%), 0-0 (13.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Plymouth Win
49%
2.02
31%
3.22
19%
5.13
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
0 – 0
11.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.36
Plymouth xG
Total xG
2.13
0.77
Sunderland xG
2.02
49%
Home win
3.22
31%
Draw
5.13
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.41
59%
BTTS No
1.71
Clean Sheet
46%
2.15
26%
3.92
Win to Nil
23%
4.35
5%
20.09
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.9 | 9.1 | 3.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 16.2 | 12.4 | 4.8 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.0 | 8.5 | 3.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 5.0 | 3.9 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Plymouth vs Sunderland?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Plymouth and Sunderland expected to score?
The model projects 1.36 expected goals for Plymouth and 0.77 for Sunderland, a combined total of 2.13.
How confident is the prediction model for Plymouth vs Sunderland?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Plymouth's recent record stands at 23W 9D 10L from 42 games, a 1.86 PPG return, with W-L-W-D-L in the last five.
Sunderland, meanwhile, have gone 22W 10D 10L across 42 games — 1.81 PPG, with W-D-W-W-W in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Plymouth on 1.86 PPG, Sunderland on 1.81. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Plymouth have managed 14W 3D 4L from 21 games — 2.14 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Sunderland's away record stands at 7W 8D 6L across 21 trips, a 1.38 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.81 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Sunderland's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Plymouth come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Plymouth are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.95 conceded per game recently; Sunderland are on 1.71 scored and 1.21 conceded.
Defensively: Plymouth have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 42 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Plymouth
Current Season
Sunderland
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Plymouth and Sunderland in coming into this match?
Plymouth have gone 23W 9D 10L in their last 42 games (1.86 PPG), while Sunderland have gone 22W 10D 10L in their last 42 (1.81 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Plymouth at home or Sunderland away?
Plymouth's home record (2.14 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Plymouth at home: 2.14 PPG; Sunderland away: 1.38 PPG.
Have Plymouth or Sunderland been keeping clean sheets recently?
Plymouth have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, Sunderland in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Plymouth and Sunderland runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — League One, Championship all feature in the head-to-head log. It has been a while since the last meeting — 25 January 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Plymouth's record when hosting Sunderland specifically: 2W 1D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Plymouth
2
Draws
2
Sunderland
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Plymouth and Sunderland?
From 6 meetings on record, Plymouth have won 2, Sunderland have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Plymouth and Sunderland last play each other?
They last met on 25 January 2025, when Sunderland 2-2 Plymouth.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Plymouth are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time.
Sunderland are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Plymouth 38%, Sunderland 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Plymouth) and 67% (Sunderland).
On the defensive side: Plymouth keep a clean sheet in 52% of their matches; Sunderland in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Plymouth home games / Sunderland away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Plymouth play Sunderland?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of Plymouth's recent matches and 57% of Sunderland's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Plymouth vs Sunderland usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Plymouth's recent games and 67% of Sunderland's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Plymouth and Sunderland tend to score early?
Plymouth have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Sunderland in 81% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Plymouth's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Home Park, Regular Season - 44, as Plymouth and Sunderland drew 0-0 in the League One. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Plymouth 1.36 xG and Sunderland 0.77 xG, a combined 2.13. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Plymouth fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Plymouth attack 1.02 / defence 0.71 against Sunderland attack 0.91 / defence 1.19, drawn from 43/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Plymouth 49% | Draw 31% | Sunderland 19%, with Plymouth to win its most likely call at 49%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 64% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Plymouth 45%, Sunderland 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Plymouth's trading profile (42 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and duly kept one.
Sunderland's trading profile (42 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Plymouth 1.86 PPG, Sunderland 1.81 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Plymouth (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.52 scoring average — below par going forward. Sunderland (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.38 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.62 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.