Plymouth 1-0 Portsmouth – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Plymouth at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this Plymouth vs Portsmouth fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Plymouth and Portsmouth meet at Home Park in League One, Regular Season - 25. This fixture gets under way on Tuesday 15 March 2022 at 19:45 UTC.
Current Form
Plymouth's overall League One record this term: 7W 1D 2L from 10 games (2.20 PPG). Last five: L L W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 0.80 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Plymouth at Home Park this season: 6W 0D 4L from 10 home games — 1.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Home Park. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Portsmouth have collected 2.00 PPG across 10 League One outings this season: 6W 2D 2L. Last five: D W W W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.40 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Portsmouth have gone 5W 3D 2L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 2.20 vs 2.00 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Both sides have a clean-sheet tendency (using home/away splits) — Plymouth have seen both teams score in just 30% of their matches, Portsmouth in only 30%. BTTS No has clear statistical support from the form record of both squads.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Plymouth, 0 for Portsmouth and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 4.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 21 Sep 2021, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Plymouth half-time and goal-timing data (36 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games).
Portsmouth half-time and goal-timing data (36 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Plymouth 53% versus Portsmouth 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Plymouth 50% | Portsmouth 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Plymouth 1.06 xG and Portsmouth 0.96 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Plymouth attack 0.959 / defence 0.931 | Portsmouth attack 0.843 / defence 0.974. League average goals — home 1.134 / away 1.231. Data: 36 Plymouth games / 36 Portsmouth games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Plymouth 36% | Draw 33% | Portsmouth 31%. Fair-value odds: Plymouth 2.78 | Draw 3.03 | Portsmouth 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.02. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.02 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Plymouth at 36% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Plymouth if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.02 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 33% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 42% on No. Form rates corroborate: Plymouth 30% | Portsmouth 30% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Plymouth vs Portsmouth | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Home Park • Kick-off: Tuesday 15 Mar 2022, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Plymouth 36% | Draw 33% | Portsmouth 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% | BTTS 42% | xG Plymouth 1.06 / Portsmouth 0.96 • Poisson strength factors: Plymouth attack 0.959 / def 0.931 | Portsmouth attack 0.843 / def 0.974 | league avg home 1.134 / away 1.231 • Poisson stance: Plymouth (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.06
Plymouth xG
Expected Goals
0.96
Portsmouth xG
42%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Plymouth vs Portsmouth kick off?
Plymouth vs Portsmouth kicked off at 19:45 on Tuesday 15 March 2022 at Home Park.
What was the final score in Plymouth vs Portsmouth?
Plymouth 1 - 0 Portsmouth.
Where is Plymouth vs Portsmouth being played?
The match is being played at Home Park.
What competition is Plymouth vs Portsmouth part of?
Plymouth vs Portsmouth is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Plymouth vs Portsmouth?
Our statistical model gives Plymouth a 36% chance of winning, Portsmouth a 31% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Plymouth the favourite.
Will both teams score in Plymouth vs Portsmouth?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Plymouth and Portsmouth will score (BTTS).
Will Plymouth vs Portsmouth have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%.
What is the head-to-head record between Plymouth and Portsmouth?
Record (1 meetings): Plymouth 0W | Draws 1 | Portsmouth 0W.
What form are Plymouth and Portsmouth in?
Plymouth (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.80 | L5 L-L-W-W-W. Portsmouth (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-W-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Plymouth's attack rating (0.96) and Portsmouth's defence rating (0.97), the model arrives at 1.06 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Portsmouth's attack (0.84x) against Plymouth's defence (0.93x) — and the away total comes out at 0.96.
These ratings are built from 36/36 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.3%. Close behind: 0-0 (15.0%), 1-0 (12.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Plymouth Win
36%
2.78
33%
3.03
31%
3.22
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
0 – 0
13.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.06
Plymouth xG
Total xG
2.02
0.96
Portsmouth xG
2.78
36%
Home win
3.03
33%
Draw
3.22
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.40
58%
BTTS No
1.71
Clean Sheet
38%
2.62
35%
2.89
Win to Nil
14%
7.30
11%
9.30
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.2 | 12.7 | 6.1 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.0 | 13.5 | 6.5 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 7.2 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 2.5 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Plymouth vs Portsmouth?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.3%.
How many goals are Plymouth and Portsmouth expected to score?
The model projects 1.06 expected goals for Plymouth and 0.96 for Portsmouth, a combined total of 2.02.
How confident is the prediction model for Plymouth vs Portsmouth?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 36 outings, Plymouth have picked up 1.81 PPG on a 19W 8D 9L record — L-L-W-W-W across the most recent five.
Portsmouth's form line: 16W 10D 10L from 36 games, 1.61 PPG, last five D-W-W-W-D.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.81 PPG for Plymouth against 1.61 for Portsmouth. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Plymouth have posted 1.94 PPG from 17 outings (10W 3D 4L).
On the road, Portsmouth have gone 5W 6D 6L from 17 away games — 1.24 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Plymouth come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Plymouth are averaging 1.64 goals scored and 1.08 conceded per game recently; Portsmouth are on 1.47 scored and 1.06 conceded.
Defensively: Portsmouth in 44% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 36 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Plymouth
Current Season
Portsmouth
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Plymouth and Portsmouth in coming into this match?
Plymouth have gone 19W 8D 9L in their last 36 games (1.81 PPG), while Portsmouth have gone 16W 10D 10L in their last 36 (1.61 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Plymouth at home or Portsmouth away?
Plymouth's home record (1.94 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Plymouth at home: 1.94 PPG; Portsmouth away: 1.24 PPG.
Have Plymouth or Portsmouth been keeping clean sheets recently?
Plymouth have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Portsmouth in 44%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. The pairing has crossed competitions too — League One, Championship all feature in the head-to-head log. It has been a while since the last meeting — 12 March 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Plymouth have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Plymouth have gone 3W 0D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Portsmouth — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
4
Plymouth
2
Draws
0
Portsmouth
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Plymouth and Portsmouth?
From 6 meetings on record, Plymouth have won 4, Portsmouth have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Plymouth and Portsmouth last play each other?
They last met on 12 March 2025, when Portsmouth 1-2 Plymouth.
Who has won more matches between Plymouth and Portsmouth?
Plymouth have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Plymouth are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time.
Portsmouth see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Plymouth 47%, Portsmouth 41% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Plymouth) and 47% (Portsmouth).
On the defensive side: Plymouth keep a clean sheet in 41% of their matches; Portsmouth in 41%; Portsmouth in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Plymouth home games / Portsmouth away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Plymouth play Portsmouth?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Plymouth's recent matches and 41% of Portsmouth's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Plymouth vs Portsmouth usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Plymouth's recent games and 47% of Portsmouth's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Plymouth and Portsmouth tend to score early?
Plymouth have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, Portsmouth in 53% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Plymouth edge out Portsmouth 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Plymouth beat Portsmouth 1-0 at Home Park, Regular Season - 25, in the League One. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Plymouth 1.06 xG and Portsmouth 0.96 xG, a combined 2.02. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Portsmouth landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Plymouth attack 0.96 / defence 0.93 against Portsmouth attack 0.84 / defence 0.97, drawn from 36/36 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Plymouth 36% | Draw 33% | Portsmouth 31%, with Plymouth to win its most likely call at 36%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 61% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Plymouth 50%, Portsmouth 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Plymouth's trading profile (36 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Portsmouth's trading profile (36 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Plymouth 1.81 PPG, Portsmouth 1.61 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Plymouth win broke the near-deadlock. Plymouth (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.82 average — tighter than their form line. Portsmouth (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.06 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.