Plymouth 0-3 Northampton – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Northampton at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this Plymouth vs Northampton fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Northampton make the trip to Home Park to face Plymouth in League One, Regular Season - 18. The match kicks off on Saturday 29 November 2025 at 15:00 UTC.
Current Form
Plymouth's overall League One record this term: 4W 1D 5L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: L L L L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Plymouth, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Plymouth at Home Park this season: 4W 1D 5L from 10 home games — 1.30 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Northampton (all games): 4W 1D 5L across 10 League One outings this term — 1.30 points per game. Last five: W L L W L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Northampton, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Northampton away from home this season: 3W 1D 6L from 10 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.30 vs 1.30 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Trading & In-Play
Plymouth — key trading statistics (62 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%; they fail to score in 40% of games.
Northampton — key trading statistics (62 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Plymouth 53% versus Northampton 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Plymouth 58% | Northampton 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Plymouth 1.03 xG and Northampton 1.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Plymouth attack 0.801 / defence 1.216 | Northampton attack 0.816 / defence 0.973. League average goals — home 1.322 / away 1.070. Data: 16 Plymouth games / 62 Northampton games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Plymouth 34% | Draw 30% | Northampton 36%. Fair-value odds: Plymouth 2.94 | Draw 3.33 | Northampton 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.09. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.09 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Northampton are the pick at 36% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Northampton if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.09 combined xG gives a 35% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 42%. Form rates are neutral: Plymouth 70% | Northampton 30%.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Plymouth vs Northampton | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Home Park • Kick-off: Saturday 29 Nov 2025, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Plymouth 34% | Draw 30% | Northampton 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 42% | xG Plymouth 1.03 / Northampton 1.06 • Poisson strength factors: Plymouth attack 0.801 / def 1.216 | Northampton attack 0.816 / def 0.973 | league avg home 1.322 / away 1.070 • Poisson stance: Northampton (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.03
Plymouth xG
Expected Goals
1.06
Northampton xG
42%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Plymouth vs Northampton kick off?
Plymouth vs Northampton kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 29 November 2025 at Home Park.
What was the final score in Plymouth vs Northampton?
Plymouth 0 - 3 Northampton.
Where is Plymouth vs Northampton being played?
The match is being played at Home Park.
What competition is Plymouth vs Northampton part of?
Plymouth vs Northampton is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Plymouth vs Northampton?
Our statistical model gives Plymouth a 34% chance of winning, Northampton a 36% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Northampton the favourite.
Will both teams score in Plymouth vs Northampton?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Plymouth and Northampton will score (BTTS).
Will Plymouth vs Northampton have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between Plymouth and Northampton?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Plymouth and Northampton in?
Plymouth (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-L-L-W. Northampton (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Plymouth's attack rating (0.80) and Northampton's defence rating (0.97), the model arrives at 1.03 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Northampton's attack (0.82x) against Plymouth's defence (1.22x) — and the away total comes out at 1.06.
These ratings are built from 16/62 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.3%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.1%), 0-1 (11.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Northampton Win
34%
2.92
30%
3.33
36%
2.79
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
13.1%
Away win
1 – 0
12.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.03
Plymouth xG
Total xG
2.09
1.06
Northampton xG
2.92
34%
Home win
3.33
30%
Draw
2.79
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.38
58%
BTTS No
1.73
Clean Sheet
35%
2.89
36%
2.80
Win to Nil
12%
8.46
13%
7.84
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.3 | 13.1 | 7.0 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.7 | 13.5 | 7.2 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 7.0 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 2.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Plymouth vs Northampton?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.3%.
How many goals are Plymouth and Northampton expected to score?
The model projects 1.03 expected goals for Plymouth and 1.06 for Northampton, a combined total of 2.09.
How confident is the prediction model for Plymouth vs Northampton?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Plymouth's recent record stands at 16W 14D 32L from 62 games, a 1.00 PPG return, with L-L-L-L-W in the last five. The sample for Plymouth is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Northampton, meanwhile, have gone 18W 17D 27L across 62 games — 1.15 PPG, with W-L-L-W-L in their last five. The sample for Northampton is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.00 PPG for Plymouth against 1.15 for Northampton. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Plymouth have managed 11W 8D 11L from 30 games — 1.37 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Northampton's away record stands at 7W 9D 14L across 30 trips, a 1.00 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Plymouth are averaging 1.13 goals scored and 1.87 conceded per game recently; Northampton are on 0.98 scored and 1.34 conceded.
Last 62 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Plymouth
Blended
Northampton
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Plymouth and Northampton in coming into this match?
Plymouth have gone 16W 14D 32L in their last 62 games (1.00 PPG), while Northampton have gone 18W 17D 27L in their last 62 (1.15 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Plymouth at home or Northampton away?
Plymouth's home record (1.37 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Plymouth at home: 1.37 PPG; Northampton away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since November 2025 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. They last met on 2 May 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Plymouth
0
Draws
1
Northampton
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Plymouth and Northampton?
From 2 meetings on record, Plymouth have won 1, Northampton have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Plymouth and Northampton last play each other?
They last met on 2 May 2026, when Northampton 2-3 Plymouth.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Plymouth are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 23% of those situations.
Northampton see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Plymouth 73%, Northampton 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (Plymouth) and 47% (Northampton). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 23% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Northampton in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Plymouth home games / Northampton away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Plymouth play Northampton?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 73% of Plymouth's games and 53% of Northampton's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Plymouth vs Northampton usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Plymouth's matches and 47% of Northampton's.
Do Plymouth and Northampton tend to score early?
Plymouth have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Northampton in 57% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Northampton run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Plymouth.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Northampton beat Plymouth 0-3 at Home Park, Regular Season - 18, in the League One. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Plymouth 1.03 xG and Northampton 1.06 xG, a combined 2.09. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Plymouth fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Northampton outscored their 1.06 projection by 1.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Plymouth attack 0.80 / defence 1.22 against Northampton attack 0.82 / defence 0.97, drawn from 16/62 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Plymouth 34% | Draw 30% | Northampton 36%, with Northampton to win its most likely call at 36%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 62% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Plymouth 58%, Northampton 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Plymouth's trading profile (62 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 40% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Northampton's trading profile (62 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Plymouth 1.00 PPG, Northampton 1.15 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Northampton win broke the near-deadlock. Plymouth (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.60 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.63 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Northampton (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.93 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.47 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.