Plymouth 0-0 Fleetwood Town – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Plymouth at 47% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Plymouth vs Fleetwood Town encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Plymouth host Fleetwood Town at Home Park in League One, Regular Season - 33. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 18 February 2023 at 15:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all League One games this season, Plymouth have gone 7W 2D 1L from 10 outings — a 2.30 PPG return. Last five: D W L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 0.80 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home at Home Park, Plymouth have gone 9W 0D 1L this season (10 games, 2.70 PPG). They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Fleetwood Town — All Games: 4W 0D 6L from 10 League One fixtures this season — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L L L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Fleetwood Town have gone 3W 4D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Plymouth carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.10 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.30 vs 1.20. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Plymouth, 1 for Fleetwood Town and 2 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 3 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.7 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 6 Aug 2022, ended 1–2 with Fleetwood Town winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.7 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Plymouth in-play and half-time data (76 games, 38 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Fleetwood Town in-play and half-time data (76 games, 38 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Plymouth 50% versus Fleetwood Town 64%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Plymouth 50% | Fleetwood Town 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Plymouth 1.66 xG and Fleetwood Town 1.23 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Plymouth attack 1.453 / defence 0.966 | Fleetwood Town attack 1.110 / defence 0.895. League average goals — home 1.278 / away 1.146. Plymouth carry an above-average attack strength of 1.453 — their λ of 1.66 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 77 Plymouth games / 76 Fleetwood Town games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Plymouth 47% | Draw 26% | Fleetwood Town 28%. Fair-value odds: Plymouth 2.13 | Draw 3.85 | Fleetwood Town 3.57. Plymouth hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.89. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.89 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Plymouth at 47% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Plymouth offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.89 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 55% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.7 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 58% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Plymouth 70% | Fleetwood Town 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Plymouth vs Fleetwood Town | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 33 | Venue: Home Park • Kick-off: Saturday 18 Feb 2023, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Plymouth 47% | Draw 26% | Fleetwood Town 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 58% | xG Plymouth 1.66 / Fleetwood Town 1.23 • Poisson strength factors: Plymouth attack 1.453 / def 0.966 | Fleetwood Town attack 1.110 / def 0.895 | league avg home 1.278 / away 1.146 • Poisson stance: Plymouth (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.66
Plymouth xG
Expected Goals
1.23
Fleetwood Town xG
58%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Plymouth vs Fleetwood Town kick off?
Plymouth vs Fleetwood Town kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 18 February 2023 at Home Park.
What was the final score in Plymouth vs Fleetwood Town?
Plymouth 0 - 0 Fleetwood Town.
Where is Plymouth vs Fleetwood Town being played?
The match is being played at Home Park.
What competition is Plymouth vs Fleetwood Town part of?
Plymouth vs Fleetwood Town is a Regular Season - 33 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Plymouth vs Fleetwood Town?
Our statistical model gives Plymouth a 47% chance of winning, Fleetwood Town a 28% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Plymouth the favourite.
Will both teams score in Plymouth vs Fleetwood Town?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Plymouth and Fleetwood Town will score (BTTS).
Will Plymouth vs Fleetwood Town have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Plymouth and Fleetwood Town?
Record (3 meetings): Plymouth 0W | Draws 2 | Fleetwood Town 1W.
What form are Plymouth and Fleetwood Town in?
Plymouth (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-W-L-W-W. Fleetwood Town (all comps): 4W-0D-6L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Plymouth's attacking strength (1.45x league average) is weighed against Fleetwood Town's defensive record (0.90x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.66. The same calculation in reverse, Fleetwood Town's attack versus Plymouth's defence, projects 1.23 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 77/76 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 1-0 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Plymouth Win
47%
2.14
26%
3.91
28%
3.62
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
1 – 0
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.66
Plymouth xG
Total xG
2.89
1.23
Fleetwood Town xG
2.14
47%
Home win
3.91
26%
Draw
3.62
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.72
42%
BTTS No
2.38
Clean Sheet
29%
3.42
19%
5.26
Win to Nil
14%
7.30
5%
19.05
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.6 | 6.8 | 4.2 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.2 | 11.3 | 7.0 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 9.4 | 5.8 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.2 | 5.2 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 2.2 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Plymouth vs Fleetwood Town?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are Plymouth and Fleetwood Town expected to score?
The model projects 1.66 expected goals for Plymouth and 1.23 for Fleetwood Town, a combined total of 2.89.
How confident is the prediction model for Plymouth vs Fleetwood Town?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Plymouth come into this having played 76 games, going 43W 18D 15L for 1.93 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-L-W-W.
On the other side, Fleetwood Town sit at 0.99 PPG from 76 outings (16W 27D 33L), a run that reads L-L-L-W-W across their last five.
Plymouth carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.94 PPG clear of Fleetwood Town — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Plymouth's home form reads 28W 4D 6L across 38 games on their own ground, a 2.32 PPG return.
Away from home, Fleetwood Town have taken 1.00 points per game from 38 outings (8W 14D 16L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Plymouth come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Plymouth are averaging 1.64 goals scored and 1.03 conceded per game recently; Fleetwood Town are on 1.26 scored and 1.53 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Fleetwood Town in 64%.
Defensively: Plymouth have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 76 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Plymouth
Current Season
Fleetwood Town
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Plymouth and Fleetwood Town in coming into this match?
Plymouth have gone 43W 18D 15L in their last 76 games (1.93 PPG), while Fleetwood Town have gone 16W 27D 33L in their last 76 (0.99 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Plymouth at home or Fleetwood Town away?
Plymouth's home record (2.32 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Plymouth at home: 2.32 PPG; Fleetwood Town away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Plymouth or Fleetwood Town been keeping clean sheets recently?
Plymouth have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Fleetwood Town in 18%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. It has been a while since the last meeting — 18 February 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Plymouth's record when hosting Fleetwood Town specifically: 0W 2D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Plymouth
3
Draws
1
Fleetwood Town
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Plymouth and Fleetwood Town?
From 4 meetings on record, Plymouth have won 0, Fleetwood Town have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Plymouth and Fleetwood Town last play each other?
They last met on 18 February 2023, when Plymouth 0-0 Fleetwood Town.
Who has won more matches between Plymouth and Fleetwood Town?
Fleetwood Town have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Plymouth are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 45% of the time.
Fleetwood Town are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 21% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Plymouth 42%, Fleetwood Town 68% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Plymouth) and 55% (Fleetwood Town).
On the defensive side: Plymouth keep a clean sheet in 47% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Plymouth home games / Fleetwood Town away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Plymouth play Fleetwood Town?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 42% of Plymouth's games and 68% of Fleetwood Town's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Plymouth vs Fleetwood Town usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Plymouth's recent games and 55% of Fleetwood Town's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Plymouth and Fleetwood Town tend to score early?
Plymouth have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Fleetwood Town in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Plymouth's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Plymouth and Fleetwood Town finished level at 0-0 at Home Park, Regular Season - 33, in the League One. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Plymouth 1.66 xG and Fleetwood Town 1.23 xG, a combined 2.89. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Plymouth fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Fleetwood Town landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Plymouth attack 1.45 / defence 0.97 against Fleetwood Town attack 1.11 / defence 0.90, drawn from 77/76 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Plymouth 47% | Draw 26% | Fleetwood Town 28%, with Plymouth to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 79% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Plymouth 50%, Fleetwood Town 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Plymouth's trading profile (76 games, 38 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one.
Fleetwood Town's trading profile (76 games, 38 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Plymouth arrived the stronger side — 1.93 PPG against 0.99. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Plymouth (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.68 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.82 average — tighter than their form line. Fleetwood Town (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.29 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.63 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.