Peterborough 0-3 Mansfield Town – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Peterborough at 52%, yet other data sources diverge — this Peterborough vs Mansfield Town fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Weston Homes Stadium plays host to Peterborough versus Mansfield Town in League One, Regular Season - 22. Kick-off: Thursday 26 December 2024 at 15:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Peterborough have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 League One outings this season: 3W 1D 6L. Last five: L L L W L. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Peterborough, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Weston Homes Stadium, Peterborough have gone 5W 2D 3L this season (10 games, 1.70 PPG). They are averaging 2.50 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Peterborough are significantly better at Weston Homes Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Mansfield Town (all games): 2W 2D 6L across 10 League One outings this term — 0.80 points per game. Last five: L L L D W. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Mansfield Town, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Mansfield Town have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.40 exceeds their overall 0.80 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.00 for Peterborough, 0.80 for Mansfield Town — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Trading Data
Peterborough goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (65 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; BTTS occurs in 66% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
Mansfield Town goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (65 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 66% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Peterborough 66% and Mansfield Town 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Peterborough 69% | Mansfield Town 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Peterborough 1.95 xG and Mansfield Town 1.31 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Peterborough attack 1.493 / defence 1.411 | Mansfield Town attack 0.797 / defence 1.025. League average goals — home 1.273 / away 1.161. Peterborough carry an above-average attack strength of 1.493 — their λ of 1.95 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 66 Peterborough games / 19 Mansfield Town games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Peterborough 52% | Draw 22% | Mansfield Town 26%. Fair-value odds: Peterborough 1.92 | Draw 4.55 | Mansfield Town 3.85. Peterborough hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.25. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.25 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.95 / 1.31) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Peterborough at 52% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 22% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Peterborough if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 3.25 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 63% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 63% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Peterborough 80% | Mansfield Town 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Peterborough vs Mansfield Town | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Weston Homes Stadium • Kick-off: Thursday 26 Dec 2024, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Peterborough 52% | Draw 22% | Mansfield Town 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% | BTTS 63% | xG Peterborough 1.95 / Mansfield Town 1.31 • Poisson strength factors: Peterborough attack 1.493 / def 1.411 | Mansfield Town attack 0.797 / def 1.025 | league avg home 1.273 / away 1.161 • Poisson stance: Peterborough (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.95
Peterborough xG
Expected Goals
1.31
Mansfield Town xG
63%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Peterborough vs Mansfield Town kick off?
Peterborough vs Mansfield Town kicked off at 15:00 on Thursday 26 December 2024 at Weston Homes Stadium.
What was the final score in Peterborough vs Mansfield Town?
Peterborough 0 - 3 Mansfield Town.
Where is Peterborough vs Mansfield Town being played?
The match is being played at Weston Homes Stadium.
What competition is Peterborough vs Mansfield Town part of?
Peterborough vs Mansfield Town is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Peterborough vs Mansfield Town?
Our statistical model gives Peterborough a 52% chance of winning, Mansfield Town a 26% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Peterborough the favourite.
Will both teams score in Peterborough vs Mansfield Town?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Peterborough and Mansfield Town will score (BTTS).
Will Peterborough vs Mansfield Town have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%.
What is the head-to-head record between Peterborough and Mansfield Town?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Peterborough and Mansfield Town in?
Peterborough (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-L-W-L. Mansfield Town (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-L-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Peterborough's attack at 1.49x the league average against Mansfield Town's defence at 1.02x — combine the two and it projects 1.95 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Mansfield Town's attack (0.80x) against Peterborough's defence (1.41x) — and the away total comes out at 1.31.
These ratings are built from 66/19 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 2-0 (7.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Peterborough Win
52%
1.91
22%
4.54
26%
3.91
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.8%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
1 – 0
7.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.95
Peterborough xG
Total xG
3.25
1.31
Mansfield Town xG
1.91
52%
Home win
4.54
22%
Draw
3.91
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.60
37%
BTTS No
2.67
Clean Sheet
27%
3.69
14%
7.01
Win to Nil
14%
7.04
4%
27.42
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.9 | 5.0 | 3.3 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.5 | 9.8 | 6.4 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 9.6 | 6.2 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.8 | 6.2 | 4.1 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.3 | 3.0 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Peterborough vs Mansfield Town?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.1%.
How many goals are Peterborough and Mansfield Town expected to score?
The model projects 1.95 expected goals for Peterborough and 1.31 for Mansfield Town, a combined total of 3.25.
How confident is the prediction model for Peterborough vs Mansfield Town?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Peterborough come into this having played 65 games, going 29W 13D 23L for 1.54 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-W-L. The sample for Peterborough is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Mansfield Town sit at 1.75 PPG from 65 outings (32W 18D 15L), a run that reads L-L-L-D-W across their last five. The sample for Mansfield Town is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.54 PPG for Peterborough against 1.75 for Mansfield Town. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Peterborough's home form reads 17W 7D 8L across 32 games on their own ground, a 1.81 PPG return.
Away from home, Mansfield Town have taken 1.66 points per game from 32 outings (15W 8D 9L).
Attack vs Defence
Peterborough are averaging 1.89 goals scored and 1.52 conceded per game recently; Mansfield Town are on 1.74 scored and 1.06 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Peterborough have seen both teams score in 66% of their recent games; Mansfield Town in 62%.
Last 65 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Peterborough
Blended
Mansfield Town
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Peterborough and Mansfield Town in coming into this match?
Peterborough have gone 29W 13D 23L in their last 65 games (1.54 PPG), while Mansfield Town have gone 32W 18D 15L in their last 65 (1.75 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Peterborough at home or Mansfield Town away?
Peterborough's home record (1.81 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Peterborough at home: 1.81 PPG; Mansfield Town away: 1.66 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 5 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. The two were last together as recently as 22 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Mansfield Town won 0-3 on 26 Dec 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Peterborough have gone 1W 1D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Mansfield Town — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 5 Meetings
2
Peterborough
1
Draws
2
Mansfield Town
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Peterborough and Mansfield Town?
From 5 meetings on record, Peterborough have won 2, Mansfield Town have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Peterborough and Mansfield Town last play each other?
They last met on 22 August 2026, when Peterborough 2-1 Mansfield Town.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Peterborough are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Mansfield Town are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 66% for Peterborough, 66% for Mansfield Town — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 75% for Peterborough and 56% for Mansfield Town. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 31% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Peterborough home games / Mansfield Town away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Peterborough play Mansfield Town?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 66% of Peterborough's games and 66% of Mansfield Town's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Peterborough vs Mansfield Town usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 75% of Peterborough's matches and 56% of Mansfield Town's.
Do Peterborough and Mansfield Town tend to score early?
Peterborough have had a goal before half-time in 88% of their recent matches, Mansfield Town in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Mansfield Town run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Peterborough.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Mansfield Town beat Peterborough 0-3 at Weston Homes Stadium, Regular Season - 22, in the League One. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Peterborough 1.95 xG and Mansfield Town 1.31 xG, a combined 3.25. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Peterborough fell 1.9 short of their projected output. Mansfield Town outscored their 1.31 projection by 1.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Peterborough attack 1.49 / defence 1.41 against Mansfield Town attack 0.80 / defence 1.02, drawn from 66/19 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Peterborough 52% | Draw 22% | Mansfield Town 26%, with Peterborough to win its most likely call at 52%. The actual Mansfield Town win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 41% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Peterborough 69%, Mansfield Town 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Peterborough's trading profile (65 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did not.
Mansfield Town's trading profile (65 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Peterborough 1.54 PPG, Mansfield Town 1.75 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Mansfield Town win broke the near-deadlock. Peterborough (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.41 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.34 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Mansfield Town (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.78 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.12 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.