Peterborough 4-3 Crawley Town – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Peterborough at 60%, yet other data sources diverge — this Peterborough vs Crawley Town fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Peterborough and Crawley Town meet at Weston Homes Stadium in League One, Regular Season - 20. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 14 December 2024 at 15:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Peterborough have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 League One outings this season: 3W 1D 6L. Last five: L W L L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.80 conceded. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Peterborough, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Peterborough have posted 4W 2D 4L at Weston Homes Stadium — 1.40 PPG. They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Crawley Town (all games): 3W 3D 4L across 10 League One outings this term — 1.20 points per game. Last five: D D D W W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Crawley Town, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Crawley Town's form when playing away from home: 3W 2D 5L across 10 road games this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.00 for Peterborough, 1.20 for Crawley Town — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Trading Data
Peterborough goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (66 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
Crawley Town goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (66 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Peterborough 64% versus Crawley Town 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Peterborough 67% | Crawley Town 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Peterborough 1.98 xG and Crawley Town 1.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Peterborough attack 1.377 / defence 1.308 | Crawley Town attack 0.700 / defence 1.100. League average goals — home 1.304 / away 1.097. Peterborough carry an above-average attack strength of 1.377 — their λ of 1.98 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 64 Peterborough games / 18 Crawley Town games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Peterborough 60% | Draw 21% | Crawley Town 19%. Fair-value odds: Peterborough 1.67 | Draw 4.76 | Crawley Town 5.26. The model has a clear lean to Peterborough (60%) — a 41pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.98. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.98 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Peterborough at 60% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.98 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 57% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Peterborough 70% | Crawley Town 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Peterborough vs Crawley Town | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Weston Homes Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 14 Dec 2024, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Peterborough 60% | Draw 21% | Crawley Town 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 55% | xG Peterborough 1.98 / Crawley Town 1.00 • Poisson strength factors: Peterborough attack 1.377 / def 1.308 | Crawley Town attack 0.700 / def 1.100 | league avg home 1.304 / away 1.097 • Poisson stance: Peterborough (60%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.98
Peterborough xG
Expected Goals
1.00
Crawley Town xG
55%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Peterborough vs Crawley Town kick off?
Peterborough vs Crawley Town kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 14 December 2024 at Weston Homes Stadium.
What was the final score in Peterborough vs Crawley Town?
Peterborough 4 - 3 Crawley Town.
Where is Peterborough vs Crawley Town being played?
The match is being played at Weston Homes Stadium.
What competition is Peterborough vs Crawley Town part of?
Peterborough vs Crawley Town is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Peterborough vs Crawley Town?
Our statistical model gives Peterborough a 60% chance of winning, Crawley Town a 19% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Peterborough the favourite.
Will both teams score in Peterborough vs Crawley Town?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Peterborough and Crawley Town will score (BTTS).
Will Peterborough vs Crawley Town have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Peterborough and Crawley Town?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Peterborough and Crawley Town in?
Peterborough (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-W-L-L-L. Crawley Town (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-D-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Peterborough's attacking strength (1.38x league average) is weighed against Crawley Town's defensive record (1.10x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.98. Flip it around — Crawley Town's attack (0.70x) against Peterborough's defence (1.31x) — and the away total comes out at 1.00.
These ratings are built from 64/18 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.4%. Close behind: 2-1 (10.0%), 2-0 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Peterborough Win
60%
1.67
21%
4.67
19%
5.36
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.0%
Home win
2 – 1
10.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.98
Peterborough xG
Total xG
2.98
1.00
Crawley Town xG
1.67
60%
Home win
4.67
21%
Draw
5.36
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.83
45%
BTTS No
2.20
Clean Sheet
37%
2.73
14%
7.21
Win to Nil
22%
4.55
3%
38.64
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.1 | 5.1 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 10.0 | 10.1 | 5.1 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.9 | 10.0 | 5.0 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.5 | 6.6 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.2 | 3.2 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Peterborough vs Crawley Town?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.4%.
How many goals are Peterborough and Crawley Town expected to score?
The model projects 1.98 expected goals for Peterborough and 1.00 for Crawley Town, a combined total of 2.98.
How confident is the prediction model for Peterborough vs Crawley Town?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 60%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Peterborough come into this having played 66 games, going 31W 13D 22L for 1.61 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-L-L. The sample for Peterborough is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Crawley Town sit at 1.44 PPG from 66 outings (28W 11D 27L), a run that reads D-D-D-W-W across their last five. The sample for Crawley Town is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.61 PPG for Peterborough against 1.44 for Crawley Town. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Peterborough's home form reads 16W 8D 9L across 33 games on their own ground, a 1.70 PPG return.
Away from home, Crawley Town have taken 1.36 points per game from 33 outings (13W 6D 14L).
Attack vs Defence
Peterborough are averaging 1.86 goals scored and 1.44 conceded per game recently; Crawley Town are on 1.50 scored and 1.45 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Peterborough have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games.
Last 66 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Peterborough
Blended
Crawley Town
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Peterborough and Crawley Town in coming into this match?
Peterborough have gone 31W 13D 22L in their last 66 games (1.61 PPG), while Crawley Town have gone 28W 11D 27L in their last 66 (1.44 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Peterborough at home or Crawley Town away?
Peterborough's home record (1.70 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Peterborough at home: 1.70 PPG; Crawley Town away: 1.36 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. It has been a while since the last meeting — 1 April 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Peterborough
0
Draws
0
Crawley Town
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Peterborough and Crawley Town?
From 2 meetings on record, Peterborough have won 2, Crawley Town have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Peterborough and Crawley Town last play each other?
They last met on 1 April 2025, when Crawley Town 3-4 Peterborough.
Who has won more matches between Peterborough and Crawley Town?
Peterborough have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Peterborough are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Crawley Town are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Peterborough 67%, Crawley Town 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 73% for Peterborough and 54% for Crawley Town. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 48% and 36% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Crawley Town in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Peterborough home games / Crawley Town away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Peterborough play Crawley Town?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Peterborough's games and 52% of Crawley Town's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Peterborough vs Crawley Town usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 73% of Peterborough's matches and 54% of Crawley Town's.
Do Peterborough and Crawley Town tend to score early?
Peterborough have had a goal before half-time in 88% of their recent matches, Crawley Town in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Peterborough edge out Crawley Town 4-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Peterborough beat Crawley Town 4-3 at Weston Homes Stadium, Regular Season - 20, in the League One. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Peterborough 1.98 xG and Crawley Town 1.00 xG, a combined 2.98. The scoreboard read 4-3 for 7 actual goals. Peterborough beat their projection by 2.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Crawley Town outscored their 1.00 projection by 2.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Peterborough attack 1.38 / defence 1.31 against Crawley Town attack 0.70 / defence 1.10, drawn from 64/18 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Peterborough 60% | Draw 21% | Crawley Town 19%, with Peterborough to win its most likely call at 60%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 35% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Peterborough 67%, Crawley Town 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Peterborough's trading profile (66 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Crawley Town's trading profile (66 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Peterborough 1.61 PPG, Crawley Town 1.44 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Peterborough win broke the near-deadlock. Peterborough (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.30 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.36 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Crawley Town (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.39 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 1.52 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.