Peterborough 2-2 Burton Albion – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Peterborough at 38% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Peterborough vs Burton Albion encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Peterborough and Burton Albion meet at ABAX Stadium in League One, Regular Season - 11. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 17 October 2026 at 11:30 UTC.
Form
Peterborough (all games): 2W 2D 6L across 10 League One fixtures this term — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L D L L W. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Peterborough, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Peterborough's form when playing at home: 2W 4D 4L across 10 games at ABAX Stadium this term (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Burton Albion have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 League One outings this season: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: L D W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Burton Albion, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in League One this season, Burton Albion have posted 3W 3D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.20 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 0.80 PPG for Peterborough against 1.20 for Burton Albion. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
Historically, Peterborough have had the better of this match-up — 4 wins from 8 meetings, with Burton Albion managing just 1 victories and 3 draws shared.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.1 goals per game across 8 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 19 Apr 2026, ended 1–1 with a draw.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Peterborough and goals. The home side's 4 wins from 8 meetings, combined with an average of 3.1 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading & In-Play
Peterborough — key trading statistics (55 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games).
Burton Albion — key trading statistics (55 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Peterborough 56% versus Burton Albion 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Peterborough 54% | Burton Albion 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Peterborough 1.18 xG and Burton Albion 1.01 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Peterborough attack 0.856 / defence 1.003 | Burton Albion attack 0.734 / defence 1.024. League average goals — home 1.342 / away 1.370. Data: 55 Peterborough games / 56 Burton Albion games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Peterborough 38% | Draw 32% | Burton Albion 30%. Fair-value odds: Peterborough 2.63 | Draw 3.12 | Burton Albion 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.19. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.19 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Peterborough at 38% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Peterborough if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.19 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 37% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 3.1 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 46% on No. Form rates are neutral: Peterborough 60% | Burton Albion 40%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Peterborough vs Burton Albion | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: ABAX Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 17 Oct 2026, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Peterborough 38% | Draw 32% | Burton Albion 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 46% | xG Peterborough 1.18 / Burton Albion 1.01 • Poisson strength factors: Peterborough attack 0.856 / def 1.003 | Burton Albion attack 0.734 / def 1.024 | league avg home 1.342 / away 1.370 • Poisson stance: Peterborough (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.18
Peterborough xG
Expected Goals
1.01
Burton Albion xG
46%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Peterborough vs Burton Albion kick off?
Peterborough vs Burton Albion kicked off at 11:30 on Saturday 17 October 2026 at ABAX Stadium.
What was the final score in Peterborough vs Burton Albion?
Peterborough 2 - 2 Burton Albion.
Where is Peterborough vs Burton Albion being played?
The match is being played at ABAX Stadium.
What competition is Peterborough vs Burton Albion part of?
Peterborough vs Burton Albion is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Peterborough vs Burton Albion?
Our statistical model gives Peterborough a 38% chance of winning, Burton Albion a 30% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Peterborough the favourite.
Will both teams score in Peterborough vs Burton Albion?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Peterborough and Burton Albion will score (BTTS).
Will Peterborough vs Burton Albion have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Peterborough and Burton Albion?
Record (8 meetings): Peterborough 4W | Draws 3 | Burton Albion 1W.
What form are Peterborough and Burton Albion in?
Peterborough (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-D-L-L-W. Burton Albion (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-D-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Peterborough's attack rating (0.86) and Burton Albion's defence rating (1.02), the model arrives at 1.18 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Burton Albion's attack (0.73x) against Peterborough's defence (1.00x) — and the away total comes out at 1.01.
These ratings are built from 55/56 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.0%), 1-0 (11.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Peterborough Win
38%
2.63
32%
3.10
30%
3.38
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
13.2%
Home win
0 – 1
11.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.18
Peterborough xG
Total xG
2.19
1.01
Burton Albion xG
2.63
38%
Home win
3.10
32%
Draw
3.38
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.20
54%
BTTS No
1.84
Clean Sheet
36%
2.74
31%
3.24
Win to Nil
14%
7.20
9%
10.95
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.2 | 11.3 | 5.7 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.2 | 13.3 | 6.7 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.8 | 7.9 | 4.0 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 3.1 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Peterborough vs Burton Albion?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Peterborough and Burton Albion expected to score?
The model projects 1.18 expected goals for Peterborough and 1.01 for Burton Albion, a combined total of 2.19.
How confident is the prediction model for Peterborough vs Burton Albion?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 55 outings, Peterborough have picked up 1.11 PPG on a 17W 10D 28L record — L-D-L-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for Peterborough is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Burton Albion's form line: 15W 18D 22L from 55 games, 1.15 PPG, last five L-D-W-L-L. The sample for Burton Albion is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.11 PPG for Peterborough against 1.15 for Burton Albion. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Peterborough have posted 1.26 PPG from 27 outings (9W 7D 11L).
On the road, Burton Albion have gone 6W 10D 11L from 27 away games — 1.04 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Peterborough are averaging 1.29 goals scored and 1.49 conceded per game recently; Burton Albion are on 1.13 scored and 1.36 conceded.
Last 55 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Peterborough
Blended
Burton Albion
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Peterborough and Burton Albion in coming into this match?
Peterborough have gone 17W 10D 28L in their last 55 games (1.11 PPG), while Burton Albion have gone 15W 18D 22L in their last 55 (1.15 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Peterborough at home or Burton Albion away?
Peterborough's home record (1.26 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Peterborough at home: 1.26 PPG; Burton Albion away: 1.04 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 9 times since October 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. The two were last together as recently as 17 October 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Peterborough won 4-0 on 25 Nov 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Peterborough have gone 1W 3D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Burton Albion — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
4
Peterborough
4
Draws
1
Burton Albion
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Peterborough and Burton Albion?
From 9 meetings on record, Peterborough have won 4, Burton Albion have won 1, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Peterborough and Burton Albion last play each other?
They last met on 17 October 2026, when Peterborough 2-2 Burton Albion.
Who has won more matches between Peterborough and Burton Albion?
Peterborough have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Peterborough are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Burton Albion are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Peterborough 56%, Burton Albion 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Peterborough) and 48% (Burton Albion).
On the defensive side: Peterborough have failed to score in 30% of games; Burton Albion in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Peterborough home games / Burton Albion away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Peterborough play Burton Albion?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of Peterborough's recent matches and 52% of Burton Albion's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Peterborough vs Burton Albion usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of Peterborough's recent games and 48% of Burton Albion's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Peterborough and Burton Albion tend to score early?
Peterborough have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Burton Albion in 63% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Peterborough and Burton Albion share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Peterborough and Burton Albion finished level at 2-2 at ABAX Stadium, Regular Season - 11, in the League One. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Peterborough 1.18 xG and Burton Albion 1.01 xG, a combined 2.19. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Peterborough beat their projection by 0.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Burton Albion outscored their 1.01 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Peterborough attack 0.86 / defence 1.00 against Burton Albion attack 0.73 / defence 1.02, drawn from 55/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Peterborough 38% | Draw 32% | Burton Albion 30%, with Peterborough to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. Over 3.5 was 18% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Peterborough 54%, Burton Albion 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Peterborough's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Burton Albion's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Peterborough 1.11 PPG, Burton Albion 1.15 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Burton Albion (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.93 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.