Peterborough 0-1 Burton Albion – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model favours Peterborough (62%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Peterborough face Burton Albion.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Peterborough and Burton Albion meet at Weston Homes Stadium in League One, Regular Season - 18. This fixture gets under way on Wednesday 4 December 2024 at 19:45 UTC.
Form
Peterborough (all games): 3W 2D 5L across 10 League One fixtures this term — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L W L W L. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Peterborough, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Peterborough's form when playing at home: 4W 3D 3L across 10 games at Weston Homes Stadium this term (1.50 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Burton Albion have collected 0.40 PPG across 10 League One outings this season: 1W 1D 8L. Last five: L D W L L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Burton Albion, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in League One this season, Burton Albion have posted 1W 4D 5L from 10 away outings — 0.70 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form ledger tips toward Peterborough. A 0.70 PPG lead over Burton Albion (1.10 vs 0.40) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Peterborough have seen both teams score in 80% of their games, Burton Albion in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H Analysis
Historically, Peterborough have had the better of this match-up — 3 wins from 4 meetings, with Burton Albion managing just 0 victories and 1 draws shared.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 4.2 goals per game across 4 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 9 Mar 2024, ended 3–1 with Peterborough winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Peterborough and goals. The home side's 3 wins from 4 meetings, combined with an average of 4.2 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading & In-Play
Peterborough — key trading statistics (62 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 77% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 45%.
Burton Albion — key trading statistics (62 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); they fail to score in 45% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Peterborough 66% versus Burton Albion 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Peterborough 69% | Burton Albion 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Peterborough 2.44 xG and Burton Albion 1.33 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Peterborough attack 1.495 / defence 1.342 | Burton Albion attack 0.895 / defence 1.223. League average goals — home 1.336 / away 1.105. Peterborough carry an above-average attack strength of 1.495 — their λ of 2.44 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Burton Albion bring a strong defensive rating of 1.223 — this is suppressing Peterborough's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 62 Peterborough games / 62 Burton Albion games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Peterborough 62% | Draw 19% | Burton Albion 20%. Fair-value odds: Peterborough 1.61 | Draw 5.26 | Burton Albion 5.00. The model has a clear lean to Peterborough (62%) — a 42pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 73% | BTTS probability 67% | Total xG 3.77. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 73% — a total xG of 3.77 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 67% reflects that both xG figures (2.44 / 1.33) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Peterborough at 62% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.77 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 73% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.2 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 67% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Peterborough 80% | Burton Albion 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Peterborough vs Burton Albion | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Weston Homes Stadium • Kick-off: Wednesday 4 Dec 2024, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Peterborough 62% | Draw 19% | Burton Albion 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 73% | BTTS 67% | xG Peterborough 2.44 / Burton Albion 1.33 • Poisson strength factors: Peterborough attack 1.495 / def 1.342 | Burton Albion attack 0.895 / def 1.223 | league avg home 1.336 / away 1.105 • Poisson stance: Peterborough (62%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.44
Peterborough xG
Expected Goals
1.33
Burton Albion xG
67%
BTTS
89%
Over 1.5
73%
Over 2.5
52%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Peterborough vs Burton Albion kick off?
Peterborough vs Burton Albion kicked off at 19:45 on Wednesday 4 December 2024 at Weston Homes Stadium.
What was the final score in Peterborough vs Burton Albion?
Peterborough 0 - 1 Burton Albion.
Where is Peterborough vs Burton Albion being played?
The match is being played at Weston Homes Stadium.
What competition is Peterborough vs Burton Albion part of?
Peterborough vs Burton Albion is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Peterborough vs Burton Albion?
Our statistical model gives Peterborough a 62% chance of winning, Burton Albion a 20% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making Peterborough the favourite.
Will both teams score in Peterborough vs Burton Albion?
Our model estimates a 67% probability that both Peterborough and Burton Albion will score (BTTS).
Will Peterborough vs Burton Albion have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 73%.
What is the head-to-head record between Peterborough and Burton Albion?
Record (4 meetings): Peterborough 3W | Draws 1 | Burton Albion 0W.
What form are Peterborough and Burton Albion in?
Peterborough (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-W-L-W-L. Burton Albion (all comps): 1W-1D-8L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-D-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Peterborough's attack rating (1.50) and Burton Albion's defence rating (1.22), the model arrives at 2.44 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Burton Albion's attack (0.90x) against Peterborough's defence (1.34x) — and the away total comes out at 1.33.
These ratings are built from 62/62 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 9.1%. Close behind: 1-1 (8.4%), 3-1 (7.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Peterborough Win
62%
1.61
19%
5.40
20%
5.12
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
7.5%
Draw
3 – 1
7.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.44
Peterborough xG
Total xG
3.77
1.33
Burton Albion xG
1.61
62%
Home win
5.40
19%
Draw
5.12
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
89%
Over 1.5
1.12
11%
Under 1.5
9.09
73%
Over 2.5
1.37
27%
Under 2.5
3.70
52%
Over 3.5
1.92
48%
Under 3.5
2.08
33%
Over 4.5
3.03
67%
Under 4.5
1.49
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
67%
BTTS Yes
1.49
33%
BTTS No
3.04
Clean Sheet
27%
3.77
9%
11.51
Win to Nil
16%
6.08
2%
58.95
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.3 | 3.1 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 5.6 | 7.5 | 5.0 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 9.1 | 6.1 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.6 | 7.4 | 4.9 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 3.4 | 4.5 | 3.0 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.7 | 2.2 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Peterborough vs Burton Albion?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.1%.
How many goals are Peterborough and Burton Albion expected to score?
The model projects 2.44 expected goals for Peterborough and 1.33 for Burton Albion, a combined total of 3.77.
How confident is the prediction model for Peterborough vs Burton Albion?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 62%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 62 outings, Peterborough have picked up 1.61 PPG on a 29W 13D 20L record — L-W-L-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Peterborough is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Burton Albion's form line: 13W 15D 34L from 62 games, 0.87 PPG, last five L-D-W-L-L. The sample for Burton Albion is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Peterborough are the form team by 0.74 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Burton Albion.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Peterborough have posted 1.83 PPG from 30 outings (16W 7D 7L).
On the road, Burton Albion have gone 5W 9D 16L from 30 away games — 0.80 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Peterborough come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Peterborough are averaging 1.94 goals scored and 1.48 conceded per game recently; Burton Albion are on 0.87 scored and 1.55 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Peterborough have seen both teams score in 66% of their recent games.
Last 62 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Peterborough
Blended
Burton Albion
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Peterborough and Burton Albion in coming into this match?
Peterborough have gone 29W 13D 20L in their last 62 games (1.61 PPG), while Burton Albion have gone 13W 15D 34L in their last 62 (0.87 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Peterborough at home or Burton Albion away?
Peterborough's home record (1.83 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Peterborough at home: 1.83 PPG; Burton Albion away: 0.80 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since October 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. They last met on 19 April 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Peterborough won 4-0 on 25 Nov 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Peterborough have gone 1W 2D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Burton Albion — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Peterborough
3
Draws
1
Burton Albion
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Peterborough and Burton Albion?
From 8 meetings on record, Peterborough have won 4, Burton Albion have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Peterborough and Burton Albion last play each other?
They last met on 19 April 2026, when Peterborough 1-1 Burton Albion.
Who has won more matches between Peterborough and Burton Albion?
Peterborough have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Peterborough are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Burton Albion are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Peterborough 67%, Burton Albion 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 77% for Peterborough and 53% for Burton Albion. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 20% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Burton Albion in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Peterborough home games / Burton Albion away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Peterborough play Burton Albion?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Peterborough's games and 47% of Burton Albion's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Peterborough vs Burton Albion usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 77% of Peterborough's matches and 53% of Burton Albion's.
Do Peterborough and Burton Albion tend to score early?
Peterborough have had a goal before half-time in 90% of their recent matches, Burton Albion in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Burton Albion defy the odds to beat Peterborough 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Burton Albion beat Peterborough 0-1 at Weston Homes Stadium, Regular Season - 18, in the League One. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Peterborough 2.44 xG and Burton Albion 1.33 xG, a combined 3.77. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Peterborough fell 2.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Peterborough attack 1.50 / defence 1.34 against Burton Albion attack 0.90 / defence 1.22, drawn from 62/62 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Peterborough 62% | Draw 19% | Burton Albion 20%, with Peterborough to win its most likely call at 62%. Instead the game produced a Burton Albion win, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 73%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 89% and missed. Over 3.5 was 52% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 67% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Peterborough 69%, Burton Albion 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Peterborough's trading profile (62 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did not.
Burton Albion's trading profile (62 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Peterborough arrived the stronger side — 1.61 PPG against 0.87. Form was overturned, with Burton Albion winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Peterborough (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.43 scoring average — below par going forward. Burton Albion (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.60 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.