Oxford United 5-1 Accrington ST – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Oxford United at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Oxford United vs Accrington ST fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
The Kassam Stadium plays host to Oxford United versus Accrington ST in League One, Regular Season - 10. Kick-off: Tuesday 28 September 2021 at 19:45 UTC.
Current Form
Oxford United's overall League One record this term: 3W 3D 3L from 9 games (1.33 PPG). Last five: W L D L D. They are averaging 1.11 goals per game and conceding 1.11 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 9 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 67% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Oxford United, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at The Kassam Stadium, Oxford United have gone 3W 2D 0L this season (5 games, 2.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 2 home clean sheets from 5 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.33 — Oxford United are significantly better at The Kassam Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Accrington ST (all games): 4W 1D 4L across 9 League One outings this term — 1.44 points per game. Last five: L W L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.22 per game is modest, conceding 1.56 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 9 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Accrington ST, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Accrington ST away from home this season: 1W 1D 3L from 5 away games — 0.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.44 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.33 vs 1.44 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Oxford United have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Accrington ST in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Trading & In-Play
Oxford United — key trading statistics (9 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; they lead at the break 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games).
Accrington ST — key trading statistics (9 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Oxford United 67% and Accrington ST 56% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Oxford United 44% | Accrington ST 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Oxford United 1.44 xG and Accrington ST 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Oxford United attack 0.996 / defence 0.917 | Accrington ST attack 0.925 / defence 1.407. League average goals — home 1.027 / away 1.212. Accrington ST bring a strong defensive rating of 1.407 — this is suppressing Oxford United's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 9 Oxford United games / 9 Accrington ST games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Oxford United 47% | Draw 27% | Accrington ST 27%. Fair-value odds: Oxford United 2.13 | Draw 3.70 | Accrington ST 3.70. Oxford United hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.47. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.47 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Oxford United at 47% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Oxford United if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.47 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 45% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 49% on No. This conflicts with form data: Oxford United 60% | Accrington ST 60% from recent games — a notable divergence.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Oxford United vs Accrington ST | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: The Kassam Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 28 Sep 2021, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Oxford United 47% | Draw 27% | Accrington ST 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 49% | xG Oxford United 1.44 / Accrington ST 1.03 • Poisson strength factors: Oxford United attack 0.996 / def 0.917 | Accrington ST attack 0.925 / def 1.407 | league avg home 1.027 / away 1.212 • Poisson stance: Oxford United (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.44
Oxford United xG
Expected Goals
1.03
Accrington ST xG
49%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Oxford United vs Accrington ST kick off?
Oxford United vs Accrington ST kicked off at 19:45 on Tuesday 28 September 2021 at The Kassam Stadium.
What was the final score in Oxford United vs Accrington ST?
Oxford United 5 - 1 Accrington ST.
Where is Oxford United vs Accrington ST being played?
The match is being played at The Kassam Stadium.
What competition is Oxford United vs Accrington ST part of?
Oxford United vs Accrington ST is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Oxford United vs Accrington ST?
Our statistical model gives Oxford United a 47% chance of winning, Accrington ST a 27% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Oxford United the favourite.
Will both teams score in Oxford United vs Accrington ST?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Oxford United and Accrington ST will score (BTTS).
Will Oxford United vs Accrington ST have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Oxford United and Accrington ST?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Oxford United and Accrington ST in?
Oxford United (all comps): 3W-3D-3L in 9 | 1.33 PPG | GF 1.11 / GA 1.11 | L5 W-L-D-L-D. Accrington ST (all comps): 4W-1D-4L in 9 | 1.44 PPG | GF 1.22 / GA 1.56 | L5 L-W-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Oxford United's attacking strength (1.00x league average) is weighed against Accrington ST's defensive record (1.41x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.44. Flip it around — Accrington ST's attack (0.93x) against Oxford United's defence (0.92x) — and the away total comes out at 1.03.
These ratings are built from 9/9 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.2%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.6%), 0-0 (10.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Oxford United Win
47%
2.15
27%
3.77
27%
3.71
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.2%
Home win
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.44
Oxford United xG
Total xG
2.47
1.03
Accrington ST xG
2.15
47%
Home win
3.77
27%
Draw
3.71
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.04
51%
BTTS No
1.96
Clean Sheet
36%
2.80
24%
4.22
Win to Nil
17%
6.01
6%
15.66
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.5 | 8.7 | 4.5 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.2 | 12.5 | 6.4 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.8 | 9.0 | 4.6 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.2 | 4.3 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Oxford United vs Accrington ST?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Oxford United and Accrington ST expected to score?
The model projects 1.44 expected goals for Oxford United and 1.03 for Accrington ST, a combined total of 2.47.
How confident is the prediction model for Oxford United vs Accrington ST?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 9 outings, Oxford United have picked up 1.33 PPG on a 3W 3D 3L record — W-L-D-L-D across the most recent five. The sample for Oxford United is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Accrington ST's form line: 4W 1D 4L from 9 games, 1.44 PPG, last five L-W-L-L-D. The sample for Accrington ST is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.33 PPG for Oxford United against 1.44 for Accrington ST. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Oxford United have posted 2.20 PPG from 5 outings (3W 2D 0L). That's noticeably better than their 1.33 PPG overall — Oxford United are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Accrington ST have gone 1W 1D 3L from 5 away games — 0.80 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.44 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Accrington ST's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Oxford United come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Oxford United are averaging 1.11 goals scored and 1.11 conceded per game recently; Accrington ST are on 1.22 scored and 1.56 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Oxford United have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games.
Last 9 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Oxford United
Blended
Accrington ST
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Oxford United and Accrington ST in coming into this match?
Oxford United have gone 3W 3D 3L in their last 9 games (1.33 PPG), while Accrington ST have gone 4W 1D 4L in their last 9 (1.44 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Oxford United at home or Accrington ST away?
Oxford United's home record (2.20 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Oxford United at home: 2.20 PPG; Accrington ST away: 0.80 PPG.
Have Oxford United or Accrington ST been keeping clean sheets recently?
Oxford United have kept a clean sheet in 22% of their recent games, Accrington ST in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since September 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. It has been a while since the last meeting — 7 May 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Oxford United won 5-1 on 28 Sep 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Oxford United have gone 1W 0D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Accrington ST — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Oxford United
1
Draws
2
Accrington ST
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Oxford United and Accrington ST?
From 4 meetings on record, Oxford United have won 1, Accrington ST have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Oxford United and Accrington ST last play each other?
They last met on 7 May 2023, when Oxford United 1-2 Accrington ST.
Who has won more matches between Oxford United and Accrington ST?
Accrington ST have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Oxford United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 60% of the time.
Accrington ST are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Oxford United 60%, Accrington ST 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Oxford United) and 60% (Accrington ST).
On the defensive side: Oxford United keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Oxford United home games / Accrington ST away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Oxford United play Accrington ST?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Oxford United's games and 60% of Accrington ST's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Oxford United vs Accrington ST usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Oxford United's recent games and 60% of Accrington ST's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Oxford United and Accrington ST tend to score early?
Oxford United have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Accrington ST in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Oxford United run riot with a 5-1 hammering of Accrington ST.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Oxford United beat Accrington ST 5-1 at The Kassam Stadium, Regular Season - 10, in the League One. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Oxford United 1.44 xG and Accrington ST 1.03 xG, a combined 2.47. The scoreboard read 5-1 for 6 actual goals. Oxford United beat their projection by 3.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Oxford United attack 1.00 / defence 0.92 against Accrington ST attack 0.93 / defence 1.41, drawn from 9/9 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Oxford United 47% | Draw 27% | Accrington ST 27%, with Oxford United to win its most likely call at 47%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. Over 3.5 was 24% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Oxford United 44%, Accrington ST 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Oxford United's trading profile (9 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Accrington ST's trading profile (9 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Oxford United 1.33 PPG, Accrington ST 1.44 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Oxford United win broke the near-deadlock. Oxford United (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.40 average — above their attacking norm. Accrington ST (home/away splits) shipped 5 against a 1.80 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.