Northampton 3-1 Stevenage – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Northampton at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Northampton vs Stevenage fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Northampton host Stevenage at Sixfields Stadium in League One, Regular Season - 31. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 7 February 2026 at 15:01 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Northampton stand at 1W 3D 6L from 10 League One matches — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L L L L D. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
In front of their own supporters this season, Northampton have posted 3W 2D 5L at Sixfields Stadium — 1.10 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.60 — Northampton are significantly better at Sixfields Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Across all League One games this season, Stevenage have recorded 1W 5D 4L from 10 outings — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L D D W L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Stevenage have gone 2W 2D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Northampton at 0.60 PPG versus Stevenage's 0.80. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 3 wins apiece for Northampton, 4 for Stevenage and 2 shared spoils from 9 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 16 Aug 2025, ended 0–2 with Stevenage winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Northampton in-play and half-time data (74 games, 37 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 63% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Stevenage in-play and half-time data (74 games, 37 at away): they score before half-time in 46% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Northampton 50% versus Stevenage 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Northampton 46% | Stevenage 35%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Northampton 1.16 xG and Stevenage 1.01 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Northampton attack 0.821 / defence 1.067 | Stevenage attack 0.856 / defence 1.042. League average goals — home 1.354 / away 1.106. Data: 75 Northampton games / 74 Stevenage games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Northampton 39% | Draw 29% | Stevenage 32%. Fair-value odds: Northampton 2.56 | Draw 3.45 | Stevenage 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.17. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.17 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Northampton at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Northampton offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.17 combined xG gives a 37% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 44% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Northampton 60% | Stevenage 40%.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Northampton vs Stevenage | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 31 | Venue: Sixfields Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 7 Feb 2026, 15:01 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Northampton 39% | Draw 29% | Stevenage 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 44% | xG Northampton 1.16 / Stevenage 1.01 • Poisson strength factors: Northampton attack 0.821 / def 1.067 | Stevenage attack 0.856 / def 1.042 | league avg home 1.354 / away 1.106 • Poisson stance: Northampton (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.16
Northampton xG
Expected Goals
1.01
Stevenage xG
44%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Northampton vs Stevenage kick off?
Northampton vs Stevenage kicked off at 15:01 on Saturday 7 February 2026 at Sixfields Stadium.
What was the final score in Northampton vs Stevenage?
Northampton 3 - 1 Stevenage.
Where is Northampton vs Stevenage being played?
The match is being played at Sixfields Stadium.
What competition is Northampton vs Stevenage part of?
Northampton vs Stevenage is a Regular Season - 31 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Northampton vs Stevenage?
Our statistical model gives Northampton a 39% chance of winning, Stevenage a 32% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Northampton the favourite.
Will both teams score in Northampton vs Stevenage?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Northampton and Stevenage will score (BTTS).
Will Northampton vs Stevenage have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Northampton and Stevenage?
Record (9 meetings): Northampton 3W | Draws 2 | Stevenage 4W.
What form are Northampton and Stevenage in?
Northampton (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-L-L-D. Stevenage (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-D-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Northampton's attack at 0.82x the league average against Stevenage's defence at 1.04x — combine the two and it projects 1.16 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Stevenage's attack versus Northampton's defence, projects 1.01 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 75/74 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (13.2%), 1-0 (11.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Northampton Win
39%
2.56
29%
3.42
32%
3.16
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
13.2%
Home win
0 – 1
11.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.16
Northampton xG
Total xG
2.17
1.01
Stevenage xG
2.56
39%
Home win
3.42
29%
Draw
3.16
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.29
56%
BTTS No
1.77
Clean Sheet
36%
2.75
31%
3.18
Win to Nil
14%
7.03
10%
10.06
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.4 | 11.6 | 5.8 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.2 | 13.4 | 6.8 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 7.7 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Northampton vs Stevenage?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Northampton and Stevenage expected to score?
The model projects 1.16 expected goals for Northampton and 1.01 for Stevenage, a combined total of 2.17.
How confident is the prediction model for Northampton vs Stevenage?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Northampton's recent record stands at 20W 21D 33L from 74 games, a 1.09 PPG return, with L-L-L-L-D in the last five.
Stevenage, meanwhile, have gone 26W 21D 27L across 74 games — 1.34 PPG, with L-D-D-W-L in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Northampton on 1.09 PPG, Stevenage on 1.34. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Northampton have managed 12W 10D 15L from 37 games — 1.24 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Stevenage's away record stands at 11W 10D 16L across 37 trips, a 1.16 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Northampton are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.39 conceded per game recently; Stevenage are on 0.97 scored and 1.04 conceded.
Defensively: Stevenage in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 74 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Northampton
Current Season
Stevenage
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Northampton and Stevenage in coming into this match?
Northampton have gone 20W 21D 33L in their last 74 games (1.09 PPG), while Stevenage have gone 26W 21D 27L in their last 74 (1.34 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Northampton at home or Stevenage away?
Northampton's home record (1.24 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Northampton at home: 1.24 PPG; Stevenage away: 1.16 PPG.
Have Northampton or Stevenage been keeping clean sheets recently?
Northampton have kept a clean sheet in 27% of their recent games, Stevenage in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — League Two, League One all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 7 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 19 Oct 2021, when Northampton won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Northampton's record when hosting Stevenage specifically: 2W 2D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Northampton
2
Draws
4
Stevenage
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Northampton and Stevenage?
From 10 meetings on record, Northampton have won 4, Stevenage have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Northampton and Stevenage last play each other?
They last met on 7 February 2026, when Northampton 3-1 Stevenage.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Northampton are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches.
Stevenage see a goal before the break in 46% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Northampton 46%, Stevenage 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Northampton) and 35% (Stevenage).
On the defensive side: Stevenage in 35%; Northampton have failed to score in 40% of games; Stevenage in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Northampton home games / Stevenage away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Northampton play Stevenage?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Northampton's recent matches and 38% of Stevenage's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Northampton vs Stevenage usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Northampton's recent games and 35% of Stevenage's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Northampton and Stevenage tend to score early?
Northampton have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, Stevenage in 46% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Northampton cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Stevenage.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Northampton beat Stevenage 3-1 at Sixfields Stadium, Regular Season - 31, in the League One. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Northampton 1.16 xG and Stevenage 1.01 xG, a combined 2.17. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Northampton beat their projection by 1.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Northampton attack 0.82 / defence 1.07 against Stevenage attack 0.86 / defence 1.04, drawn from 75/74 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Northampton 39% | Draw 29% | Stevenage 32%, with Northampton to win its most likely call at 39%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. Over 3.5 was 17% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Northampton 46%, Stevenage 35%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Northampton's trading profile (74 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Stevenage's trading profile (74 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Northampton 1.09 PPG, Stevenage 1.34 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Northampton win broke the near-deadlock. Northampton (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.03 average — above their attacking norm. Stevenage (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.14 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.