Northampton 0-0 Burton Albion – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Northampton at 49% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Northampton face Burton Albion.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Northampton welcome Burton Albion to Sixfields Stadium in League One (matchday 4). Kick-off is Saturday 31 August 2024 at 16:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Northampton stand at 4W 2D 4L — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L D L W D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Northampton's home record over their last 10 home games: 5W 2D 3L (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game.
Across their last 10 games, Burton Albion have recorded 2W 3D 5L — 0.90 PPG. Last five: W L L D D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 2.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Burton Albion's away record over their last 10 away games: 3W 4D 3L (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Northampton 1.40 PPG, Burton Albion 0.90 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 2 H2H matches, Northampton have won 2, Burton Albion 0, with 0 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 2 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 24 Feb 2024, ended Northampton 2–0 Burton Albion — a Northampton win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Northampton trading profile (last 49 games, 24 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; of the 14 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; of the 18 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 39%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games).
Burton Albion trading profile (last 49 games, 24 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; of the 11 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 27%; of the 19 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 26%; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 45% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Northampton 53% versus Burton Albion 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Northampton 51% | Burton Albion 47%). Note also that Burton Albion surrender HT leads in 27% of cases while Northampton recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 39% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Northampton 1.70 xG and Burton Albion 1.20 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Northampton attack 1.059 / defence 0.921 | Burton Albion attack 1.090 / defence 1.189. League average goals — home 1.346 / away 1.196. Data: built from Northampton's last 49 games and Burton Albion's last 49.
Result probabilities: Northampton 49% | Draw 24% | Burton Albion 27%. Fair-value odds: Northampton 2.04 | Draw 4.17 | Burton Albion 3.70. Northampton hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS Yes probability 57% | Total xG 2.90. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.90 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 57% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Northampton are the pick at 49% — moderate model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Northampton offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.90 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 55% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 57%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Northampton 50% (last 10 home games) | Burton Albion 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Northampton vs Burton Albion | Competition: League One, matchday 4 | Venue: Sixfields Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 31 August 2024 at 16:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Northampton 49% | Draw 24% | Burton Albion 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% (Under 45%) | BTTS Yes 57% (No 43%) | xG Northampton 1.70 / Burton Albion 1.20 • Poisson strength factors: Northampton attack 1.059 / def 0.921 | Burton Albion attack 1.090 / def 1.189 | league avg home 1.346 / away 1.196 • Poisson stance: Northampton (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.70
Northampton xG
Expected Goals
1.20
Burton Albion xG
57%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Northampton vs Burton Albion FAQs
What time does Northampton vs Burton Albion kick off?
Northampton vs Burton Albion kicked off at 16:00 UK time on Saturday 31 August 2024 at Sixfields Stadium.
What was the final score in Northampton vs Burton Albion?
Northampton 0 - 0 Burton Albion.
Where is Northampton vs Burton Albion being played?
The match is being played at Sixfields Stadium.
What competition is Northampton vs Burton Albion part of?
Northampton vs Burton Albion is a League One fixture (matchday 4) (England).
Who is favourite to win Northampton vs Burton Albion?
Our statistical model gives Northampton a 49% chance of winning, Burton Albion a 27% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Northampton the favourite.
Will both teams score in Northampton vs Burton Albion?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Northampton and Burton Albion will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Northampton vs Burton Albion have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Northampton's attack rating (1.06) and Burton Albion's defence rating (1.19), the model arrives at 1.70 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Burton Albion's attack versus Northampton's defence, projects 1.20 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Northampton's last 49 games and Burton Albion's last 49 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 2-0 (7.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Northampton Win
49%
2.04
24%
4.17
27%
3.70
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
1 – 0
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.70
Northampton xG
Total xG
2.90
1.20
Burton Albion xG
2.04
49%
Home win
4.17
24%
Draw
3.70
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.75
43%
BTTS No
2.33
Clean Sheet
30%
3.32
18%
5.45
Win to Nil
15%
6.78
5%
20.15
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.5 | 6.6 | 4.0 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.4 | 11.2 | 6.7 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.9 | 9.5 | 5.7 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.5 | 5.4 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 2.3 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Northampton vs Burton Albion Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Northampton vs Burton Albion?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are Northampton and Burton Albion expected to score?
The model projects 1.70 expected goals for Northampton and 1.20 for Burton Albion, a combined total of 2.90.
How confident is the prediction model for Northampton vs Burton Albion?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Northampton come into this having played 49 games, going 18W 10D 21L for 1.31 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-L-W-D.
On the other side, Burton Albion sit at 0.98 PPG from 49 outings (12W 12D 25L), a run that reads W-L-L-D-D across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Northampton on 1.31 PPG, Burton Albion on 0.98. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Northampton's home form reads 12W 5D 7L across their last 24 home games, a 1.71 PPG return.
Away from home, Burton Albion have taken 0.92 points per game from their last 24 away games (5W 7D 12L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Northampton come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Northampton are averaging 1.24 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game recently; Burton Albion are on 0.90 scored and 1.49 conceded.
Last 49 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Northampton
Early Season
Burton Albion
Early Season
Northampton (Home) vs Burton Albion (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Northampton
Early Season
Burton Albion
Early Season
❓ Northampton vs Burton Albion Form FAQs
What form are Northampton and Burton Albion in coming into this match?
Northampton have gone 18W 10D 21L in their last 49 games (1.31 PPG), while Burton Albion have gone 12W 12D 25L in their last 49 (0.98 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Northampton at home or Burton Albion away?
Northampton's home record (1.71 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Northampton at home: 1.71 PPG; Burton Albion away: 0.92 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 6 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 2 years from November 2023. All of them came in League One. The most recent was on 14 March 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear recent trend here: Burton Albion have taken the most recent 2 H2H results in our data.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 26 Dec 2025, when Burton Albion won Burton Albion 5-1 Northampton.
Northampton's record when hosting Burton Albion specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Northampton
1
Draws
2
Burton Albion
Recent Meetings
❓ Northampton vs Burton Albion H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Northampton and Burton Albion?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Northampton have won 3, Burton Albion have won 2, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Northampton and Burton Albion last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 14 March 2026: Northampton 0-2 Burton Albion.
Who has won more matches between Northampton and Burton Albion?
Northampton have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Northampton are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Burton Albion are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 31% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Northampton 50%, Burton Albion 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Northampton) and 50% (Burton Albion).
On the defensive side: Burton Albion in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Northampton home games / Burton Albion away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Northampton vs Burton Albion Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Northampton and Burton Albion matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Northampton's recent matches and 46% of Burton Albion's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Northampton and Burton Albion matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Northampton's recent games and 50% of Burton Albion's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Northampton and Burton Albion matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 67% of Northampton's recent matches and 71% of Burton Albion's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Northampton's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Sixfields Stadium, Regular Season - 4, as Northampton and Burton Albion drew 0-0 in the League One. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Northampton 1.70 xG and Burton Albion 1.20 xG, a combined 2.90. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Northampton fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Burton Albion landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Northampton attack 1.06 / defence 0.92 against Burton Albion attack 1.09 / defence 1.19, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Northampton 49% | Draw 24% | Burton Albion 27%, with Northampton to win its most likely call at 49%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 78% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Northampton 51%, Burton Albion 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Northampton's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Burton Albion's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 45% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Northampton 1.31 PPG, Burton Albion 0.98 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Northampton (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.38 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Burton Albion (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.83 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.54 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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