Morecambe 1-1 Gillingham – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Morecambe at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Morecambe vs Gillingham fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Gillingham make the trip to Mazuma Stadium to face Morecambe in League One, Regular Season - 33. The match kicks off on Saturday 12 February 2022 at 15:00 UTC.
Current Form
Morecambe's overall League One record this term: 2W 4D 4L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: W D L D L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Morecambe at Mazuma Stadium this season: 2W 4D 4L from 10 home games — 1.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Gillingham (all games): 2W 2D 6L across 10 League One outings this term — 0.80 points per game. Last five: D L W L W. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
On the road, Gillingham have gone 1W 3D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.00 PPG for Morecambe against 0.80 for Gillingham. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Morecambe lead 0W to 1W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 21 Aug 2021, ended 1–2 with Gillingham winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Morecambe goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (31 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 45%.
Gillingham goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (31 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Morecambe 61% versus Gillingham 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Morecambe 61% | Gillingham 36%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Morecambe 1.60 xG and Gillingham 1.29 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Morecambe attack 1.071 / defence 1.476 | Gillingham attack 0.705 / defence 1.369. League average goals — home 1.089 / away 1.238. Gillingham bring a strong defensive rating of 1.369 — this is suppressing Morecambe's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 31 Morecambe games / 31 Gillingham games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Morecambe 45% | Draw 25% | Gillingham 31%. Fair-value odds: Morecambe 2.22 | Draw 4.00 | Gillingham 3.23. Morecambe hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.88. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.88 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Morecambe are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Morecambe if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.88 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 55% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 58% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Morecambe 70% | Gillingham 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Morecambe vs Gillingham | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 33 | Venue: Mazuma Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 12 Feb 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Morecambe 45% | Draw 25% | Gillingham 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 58% | xG Morecambe 1.60 / Gillingham 1.29 • Poisson strength factors: Morecambe attack 1.071 / def 1.476 | Gillingham attack 0.705 / def 1.369 | league avg home 1.089 / away 1.238 • Poisson stance: Morecambe (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.60
Morecambe xG
Expected Goals
1.29
Gillingham xG
58%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Morecambe vs Gillingham kick off?
Morecambe vs Gillingham kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 12 February 2022 at Mazuma Stadium.
What was the final score in Morecambe vs Gillingham?
Morecambe 1 - 1 Gillingham.
Where is Morecambe vs Gillingham being played?
The match is being played at Mazuma Stadium.
What competition is Morecambe vs Gillingham part of?
Morecambe vs Gillingham is a Regular Season - 33 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Morecambe vs Gillingham?
Our statistical model gives Morecambe a 45% chance of winning, Gillingham a 31% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Morecambe the favourite.
Will both teams score in Morecambe vs Gillingham?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Morecambe and Gillingham will score (BTTS).
Will Morecambe vs Gillingham have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Morecambe and Gillingham?
Record (1 meetings): Morecambe 0W | Draws 0 | Gillingham 1W.
What form are Morecambe and Gillingham in?
Morecambe (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-D-L-D-L. Gillingham (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 2.00 | L5 D-L-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Morecambe's attacking strength (1.07x league average) is weighed against Gillingham's defensive record (1.37x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.60. Flip it around — Gillingham's attack (0.70x) against Morecambe's defence (1.48x) — and the away total comes out at 1.29.
These ratings are built from 31/31 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.0%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.2%), 1-0 (7.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Morecambe Win
45%
2.24
25%
4.08
31%
3.24
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
1 – 0
8.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.60
Morecambe xG
Total xG
2.88
1.29
Gillingham xG
2.24
45%
Home win
4.08
25%
Draw
3.24
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.73
42%
BTTS No
2.37
Clean Sheet
28%
3.63
20%
4.93
Win to Nil
12%
8.13
6%
15.98
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.6 | 7.2 | 4.6 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.9 | 11.5 | 7.4 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 9.2 | 5.9 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.8 | 4.9 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.9 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Morecambe vs Gillingham?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are Morecambe and Gillingham expected to score?
The model projects 1.60 expected goals for Morecambe and 1.29 for Gillingham, a combined total of 2.88.
How confident is the prediction model for Morecambe vs Gillingham?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 31 outings, Morecambe have picked up 0.94 PPG on a 7W 8D 16L record — W-D-L-D-L across the most recent five.
Gillingham's form line: 5W 10D 16L from 31 games, 0.81 PPG, last five D-L-W-L-W.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.94 PPG for Morecambe against 0.81 for Gillingham. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Morecambe have posted 1.13 PPG from 15 outings (4W 5D 6L).
On the road, Gillingham have gone 1W 6D 8L from 15 away games — 0.60 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Morecambe come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Morecambe are averaging 1.35 goals scored and 1.94 conceded per game recently; Gillingham are on 0.81 scored and 1.68 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Morecambe have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Last 31 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Morecambe
Current Season
Gillingham
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Morecambe and Gillingham in coming into this match?
Morecambe have gone 7W 8D 16L in their last 31 games (0.94 PPG), while Gillingham have gone 5W 10D 16L in their last 31 (0.81 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Morecambe at home or Gillingham away?
Morecambe's home record (1.13 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Morecambe at home: 1.13 PPG; Gillingham away: 0.60 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. The pairing has crossed competitions too — League One, League Two all feature in the head-to-head log. It has been a while since the last meeting — 1 March 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Gillingham have taken the last 4 head-to-head results.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Morecambe have gone 0W 1D 2L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Gillingham — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Morecambe
1
Draws
5
Gillingham
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Morecambe and Gillingham?
From 6 meetings on record, Morecambe have won 0, Gillingham have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Morecambe and Gillingham last play each other?
They last met on 1 March 2025, when Gillingham 1-0 Morecambe.
Who has won more matches between Morecambe and Gillingham?
Gillingham have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Morecambe are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Gillingham are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 27% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Morecambe 60%, Gillingham 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Morecambe) and 33% (Gillingham).
On the defensive side: Morecambe have failed to score in 27% of games; Gillingham in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Morecambe home games / Gillingham away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Morecambe play Gillingham?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Morecambe's games and 60% of Gillingham's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Morecambe vs Gillingham usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 53% of Morecambe's recent games and 33% of Gillingham's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Morecambe and Gillingham tend to score early?
Morecambe have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Gillingham in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Morecambe and Gillingham share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Mazuma Stadium, Regular Season - 33, as Morecambe and Gillingham drew 1-1 in the League One. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Morecambe 1.60 xG and Gillingham 1.29 xG, a combined 2.88. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Morecambe attack 1.07 / defence 1.48 against Gillingham attack 0.70 / defence 1.37, drawn from 31/31 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Morecambe 45% | Draw 25% | Gillingham 31%, with Morecambe to win its most likely call at 45%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Morecambe 61%, Gillingham 36%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Morecambe's trading profile (31 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Gillingham's trading profile (31 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Morecambe 0.94 PPG, Gillingham 0.81 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Morecambe (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.80 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.