Mansfield Town vs Stevenage – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Mansfield Town at 41% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Mansfield Town vs Stevenage encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Mansfield Town and Stevenage meet at One Call Stadium in League One, Regular Season - 33. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 27 February 2027 at 15:00 UTC.
Current Form
Mansfield Town's overall League One record this term: 4W 3D 3L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: W D W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Mansfield Town, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Mansfield Town's home record at One Call Stadium: 5W 4D 1L from 10 League One appearances (1.90 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Stevenage (all games): 4W 3D 3L across 10 League One outings this term — 1.50 points per game. Last five: W L W L D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.00. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Stevenage, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Stevenage's away record: 2W 4D 4L from 10 road trips in League One this season (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.50 vs 1.50 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 8 meetings: Mansfield Town 3W, Stevenage 1W, 4D.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 8 previous contests averaged 1.6 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 24 Jan 2026, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.6 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
Mansfield Town goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (58 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (home games).
Stevenage goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (58 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 48% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Mansfield Town 55% versus Stevenage 45%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Mansfield Town 50% | Stevenage 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Mansfield Town 1.42 xG and Stevenage 1.16 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Mansfield Town attack 0.984 / defence 0.984 | Stevenage attack 0.937 / defence 1.023. League average goals — home 1.406 / away 1.262. Data: 58 Mansfield Town games / 58 Stevenage games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Mansfield Town 41% | Draw 30% | Stevenage 29%. Fair-value odds: Mansfield Town 2.44 | Draw 3.33 | Stevenage 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.58. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.58 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Mansfield Town as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Mansfield Town if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.58 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 48% — marginal — conflicting signals confidence, supported by H2H averaging 1.6 goals per meeting — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Mansfield Town 70% | Stevenage 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Mansfield Town vs Stevenage | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 33 | Venue: One Call Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 27 Feb 2027, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Mansfield Town 41% | Draw 30% | Stevenage 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 54% | xG Mansfield Town 1.42 / Stevenage 1.16 • Poisson strength factors: Mansfield Town attack 0.984 / def 0.984 | Stevenage attack 0.937 / def 1.023 | league avg home 1.406 / away 1.262 • Poisson stance: Mansfield Town (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.42
Mansfield Town xG
Expected Goals
1.16
Stevenage xG
54%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Mansfield Town vs Stevenage kick off?
Mansfield Town vs Stevenage is scheduled to kick off at 15:00 on Saturday 27 February 2027 at One Call Stadium.
Where is Mansfield Town vs Stevenage being played?
The match is being played at One Call Stadium.
What competition is Mansfield Town vs Stevenage part of?
Mansfield Town vs Stevenage is a Regular Season - 33 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Mansfield Town vs Stevenage?
Our statistical model gives Mansfield Town a 41% chance of winning, Stevenage a 29% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Mansfield Town the favourite.
Will both teams score in Mansfield Town vs Stevenage?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Mansfield Town and Stevenage will score (BTTS).
Will Mansfield Town vs Stevenage have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Mansfield Town and Stevenage?
Record (8 meetings): Mansfield Town 3W | Draws 4 | Stevenage 1W.
What form are Mansfield Town and Stevenage in?
Mansfield Town (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-D-W-W-L. Stevenage (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Mansfield Town's attacking strength (0.98x league average) is weighed against Stevenage's defensive record (1.02x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.42. Flip it around — Stevenage's attack (0.94x) against Mansfield Town's defence (0.98x) — and the away total comes out at 1.16.
These ratings are built from 58/58 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.2%), 1-0 (9.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Mansfield Town Win
41%
2.44
30%
3.36
29%
3.42
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.7%
Home win
0 – 1
8.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.42
Mansfield Town xG
Total xG
2.58
1.16
Stevenage xG
2.44
41%
Home win
3.36
30%
Draw
3.42
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.86
46%
BTTS No
2.17
Clean Sheet
31%
3.20
24%
4.12
Win to Nil
13%
7.81
7%
14.08
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.6 | 8.8 | 5.1 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.7 | 12.5 | 7.3 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 8.8 | 5.1 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 4.2 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Mansfield Town vs Stevenage?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Mansfield Town and Stevenage expected to score?
The model projects 1.42 expected goals for Mansfield Town and 1.16 for Stevenage, a combined total of 2.58.
How confident is the prediction model for Mansfield Town vs Stevenage?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Mansfield Town's recent record stands at 21W 20D 17L from 58 games, a 1.43 PPG return, with W-D-W-W-L in the last five. The sample for Mansfield Town is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Stevenage, meanwhile, have gone 23W 16D 19L across 58 games — 1.47 PPG, with W-L-W-L-D in their last five. The sample for Stevenage is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.43 PPG for Mansfield Town against 1.47 for Stevenage. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Mansfield Town have managed 12W 10D 7L from 29 games — 1.59 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Stevenage's away record stands at 7W 8D 14L across 29 trips, a 1.00 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.47 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Stevenage's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Mansfield Town come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Mansfield Town are averaging 1.41 goals scored and 1.17 conceded per game recently; Stevenage are on 1.07 scored and 1.03 conceded.
Defensively: Stevenage in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 58 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Mansfield Town
Blended
Stevenage
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Mansfield Town and Stevenage in coming into this match?
Mansfield Town have gone 21W 20D 17L in their last 58 games (1.43 PPG), while Stevenage have gone 23W 16D 19L in their last 58 (1.47 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Mansfield Town at home or Stevenage away?
Mansfield Town's home record (1.59 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Mansfield Town at home: 1.59 PPG; Stevenage away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Mansfield Town or Stevenage been keeping clean sheets recently?
Mansfield Town have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Stevenage in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since November 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. The pairing has crossed competitions too — League Two, League One all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 24 January 2026, roughly 9 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
The last 3 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Mansfield Town have gone 2W 1D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Stevenage — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Mansfield Town
4
Draws
1
Stevenage
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Mansfield Town and Stevenage?
From 8 meetings on record, Mansfield Town have won 3, Stevenage have won 1, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Mansfield Town and Stevenage last play each other?
They last met on 24 January 2026, when Stevenage 1-1 Mansfield Town.
Who has won more matches between Mansfield Town and Stevenage?
Mansfield Town have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Mansfield Town are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 34% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Stevenage see a goal before the break in 48% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Mansfield Town 59%, Stevenage 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 55% (Mansfield Town) and 41% (Stevenage).
On the defensive side: Mansfield Town keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Stevenage in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Mansfield Town home games / Stevenage away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Mansfield Town play Stevenage?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 59% of Mansfield Town's recent matches and 48% of Stevenage's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Mansfield Town vs Stevenage usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 55% of Mansfield Town's recent games and 41% of Stevenage's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Mansfield Town and Stevenage tend to score early?
Mansfield Town have had a goal before half-time in 66% of their recent matches, Stevenage in 48% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.