Lincoln 2-1 Crewe – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Lincoln at 49% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Lincoln vs Crewe encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
LNER Stadium plays host to Lincoln versus Crewe in League One, Regular Season - 46. Kick-off: Saturday 30 April 2022 at 12:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Lincoln have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 League One outings this season: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: D L L W L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Lincoln's home record at LNER Stadium: 3W 2D 5L from 10 League One appearances (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Crewe's overall League One record this term: 1W 1D 8L from 10 games (0.40 PPG). Last five: L L W L D. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone.
Crewe away from home this season: 1W 0D 9L from 10 away games — 0.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game.
The form ledger tips toward Lincoln. A 0.70 PPG lead over Crewe (1.10 vs 0.40) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Lincoln lead 0W to 1W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 7 Dec 2021, ended 0–2 with Crewe winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Lincoln goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (45 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Crewe goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (45 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lincoln 60% versus Crewe 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lincoln 51% | Crewe 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lincoln 1.36 xG and Crewe 0.78 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lincoln attack 0.829 / defence 1.167 | Crewe attack 0.583 / defence 1.437. League average goals — home 1.140 / away 1.150. Crewe bring a strong defensive rating of 1.437 — this is suppressing Lincoln's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 45 Lincoln games / 45 Crewe games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lincoln 49% | Draw 32% | Crewe 20%. Fair-value odds: Lincoln 2.04 | Draw 3.12 | Crewe 5.00. Lincoln hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (32%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.14. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.14 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Lincoln as the most likely outcome at 49% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Lincoln if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.14 combined xG gives a 36% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 42%. Form rates corroborate: Lincoln 50% | Crewe 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lincoln vs Crewe | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 46 | Venue: LNER Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 30 Apr 2022, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lincoln 49% | Draw 32% | Crewe 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 42% | xG Lincoln 1.36 / Crewe 0.78 • Poisson strength factors: Lincoln attack 0.829 / def 1.167 | Crewe attack 0.583 / def 1.437 | league avg home 1.140 / away 1.150 • Poisson stance: Lincoln (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.36
Lincoln xG
Expected Goals
0.78
Crewe xG
42%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lincoln vs Crewe kick off?
Lincoln vs Crewe kicked off at 12:30 on Saturday 30 April 2022 at LNER Stadium.
What was the final score in Lincoln vs Crewe?
Lincoln 2 - 1 Crewe.
Where is Lincoln vs Crewe being played?
The match is being played at LNER Stadium.
What competition is Lincoln vs Crewe part of?
Lincoln vs Crewe is a Regular Season - 46 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Lincoln vs Crewe?
Our statistical model gives Lincoln a 49% chance of winning, Crewe a 20% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Lincoln the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lincoln vs Crewe?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Lincoln and Crewe will score (BTTS).
Will Lincoln vs Crewe have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lincoln and Crewe?
Record (1 meetings): Lincoln 0W | Draws 0 | Crewe 1W.
What form are Lincoln and Crewe in?
Lincoln (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-L-L-W-L. Crewe (all comps): 1W-1D-8L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Lincoln's attack rating (0.83) and Crewe's defence rating (1.44), the model arrives at 1.36 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Crewe's attack (0.58x) against Lincoln's defence (1.17x) — and the away total comes out at 0.78.
These ratings are built from 45/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.4%. Close behind: 1-1 (14.1%), 0-0 (13.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lincoln Win
49%
2.06
32%
3.15
20%
5.08
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
0 – 0
11.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.36
Lincoln xG
Total xG
2.14
0.78
Crewe xG
2.06
49%
Home win
3.15
32%
Draw
5.08
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.37
58%
BTTS No
1.73
Clean Sheet
46%
2.19
26%
3.89
Win to Nil
22%
4.50
5%
19.75
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.8 | 9.2 | 3.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 16.0 | 12.5 | 4.9 | 1.3 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 10.8 | 8.5 | 3.3 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.9 | 3.8 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lincoln vs Crewe?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Lincoln and Crewe expected to score?
The model projects 1.36 expected goals for Lincoln and 0.78 for Crewe, a combined total of 2.14.
How confident is the prediction model for Lincoln vs Crewe?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Lincoln come into this having played 45 games, going 13W 10D 22L for 1.09 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-L-W-L.
On the other side, Crewe sit at 0.64 PPG from 45 outings (7W 8D 30L), a run that reads L-L-W-L-D across their last five.
Lincoln carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.45 PPG clear of Crewe — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Lincoln's home form reads 6W 5D 11L across 22 games on their own ground, a 1.05 PPG return.
Away from home, Crewe have taken 0.41 points per game from 22 outings (2W 3D 17L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Lincoln come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Lincoln are averaging 1.18 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game recently; Crewe are on 0.80 scored and 1.80 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Lincoln have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Last 45 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lincoln
Current Season
Crewe
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lincoln and Crewe in coming into this match?
Lincoln have gone 13W 10D 22L in their last 45 games (1.09 PPG), while Crewe have gone 7W 8D 30L in their last 45 (0.64 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lincoln at home or Crewe away?
Lincoln's home record (1.05 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lincoln at home: 1.05 PPG; Crewe away: 0.41 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since December 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. It has been a while since the last meeting — 30 April 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Lincoln
0
Draws
1
Crewe
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lincoln and Crewe?
From 2 meetings on record, Lincoln have won 1, Crewe have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Lincoln and Crewe last play each other?
They last met on 30 April 2022, when Lincoln 2-1 Crewe.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Lincoln are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Crewe are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lincoln 50%, Crewe 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Lincoln) and 41% (Crewe).
On the defensive side: Lincoln have failed to score in 41% of games; Crewe in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lincoln home games / Crewe away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lincoln play Crewe?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Lincoln's recent matches and 50% of Crewe's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Lincoln vs Crewe usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Lincoln's recent games and 41% of Crewe's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Lincoln and Crewe tend to score early?
Lincoln have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Crewe in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Lincoln edge out Crewe 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lincoln beat Crewe 2-1 at LNER Stadium, Regular Season - 46, in the League One. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lincoln 1.36 xG and Crewe 0.78 xG, a combined 2.14. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lincoln attack 0.83 / defence 1.17 against Crewe attack 0.58 / defence 1.44, drawn from 45/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lincoln 49% | Draw 32% | Crewe 20%, with Lincoln to win its most likely call at 49%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lincoln 51%, Crewe 42%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lincoln's trading profile (45 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Crewe's trading profile (45 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Lincoln arrived the stronger side — 1.09 PPG against 0.64. Form held, and they took the win. Lincoln (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.05 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.