Lincoln 6-0 Cambridge United – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Lincoln at 48% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Lincoln vs Cambridge United encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Lincoln welcome Cambridge United to LNER Stadium in League One (matchday 38). Kick-off is Tuesday 12 March 2024 at 19:45 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Lincoln have gone 6W 4D 0L — a 2.20 PPG return. Last five: W W W D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 0.30 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.30 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Lincoln at home: 3W 5D 2L from their last 10 home games — 1.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.40 lags behind their overall 2.20 — home advantage has not translated into better results recently.
Cambridge United — last 10 games: 2W 2D 6L — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L L L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
Cambridge United's form when playing away from home: 2W 2D 6L across their last 10 road games (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
Lincoln carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.40 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.20 vs 0.80. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 5 H2H matches, Lincoln have won 2, Cambridge United 2, with 1 draw — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.
The 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 28 Nov 2023, ended Lincoln 3–0 Cambridge United — a Lincoln win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Lincoln trading profile (last 82 games, 40 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 58% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; of the 30 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 37%; of the 17 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 28% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time; they fail to score in 33% of games.
Cambridge United trading profile (last 82 games, 40 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 68% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; of the 18 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 28%; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lincoln 42% versus Cambridge United 43%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Lincoln 32% | Cambridge United 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lincoln 1.20 xG and Cambridge United 0.70 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lincoln attack 0.841 / defence 0.666 | Cambridge United attack 0.842 / defence 1.081. League average goals — home 1.319 / away 1.242. Lincoln have a tight defence (rating 0.666), which is pulling Cambridge United's projected output down. Data: built from Lincoln's last 83 games and Cambridge United's last 82.
Result probabilities: Lincoln 48% | Draw 30% | Cambridge United 22%. Fair-value odds: Lincoln 2.08 | Draw 3.28 | Cambridge United 4.65. Lincoln hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 29% | BTTS Yes probability 35% | Total xG 1.89. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 71% probability — total xG of 1.89 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No has firm model support at 65% — Cambridge United's lower xG of 0.70 gives a real chance they fail to score.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Lincoln as the most likely outcome at 48% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Lincoln offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.89 combined xG gives a 71% probability to Under 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
Poisson assigns a 65% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Lincoln 40% (last 10 home games) | Cambridge United 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lincoln vs Cambridge United | Competition: League One, matchday 38 | Venue: LNER Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 12 March 2024 at 19:45 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lincoln 48% | Draw 30% | Cambridge United 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 29% (Under 71%) | BTTS Yes 35% (No 65%) | xG Lincoln 1.20 / Cambridge United 0.70 • Poisson strength factors: Lincoln attack 0.841 / def 0.666 | Cambridge United attack 0.842 / def 1.081 | league avg home 1.319 / away 1.242 • Poisson stance: Lincoln (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.20
Lincoln xG
Expected Goals
0.70
Cambridge United xG
35%
BTTS
56%
Over 1.5
29%
Over 2.5
12%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Lincoln vs Cambridge United FAQs
What time does Lincoln vs Cambridge United kick off?
Lincoln vs Cambridge United kicked off at 19:45 UK time on Tuesday 12 March 2024 at LNER Stadium.
What was the final score in Lincoln vs Cambridge United?
Lincoln 6 - 0 Cambridge United.
Where is Lincoln vs Cambridge United being played?
The match is being played at LNER Stadium.
What competition is Lincoln vs Cambridge United part of?
Lincoln vs Cambridge United is a League One fixture (matchday 38) (England).
Who is favourite to win Lincoln vs Cambridge United?
Our statistical model gives Lincoln a 48% chance of winning, Cambridge United a 22% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Lincoln the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lincoln vs Cambridge United?
Our model estimates a 35% probability that both Lincoln and Cambridge United will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (65%).
Will Lincoln vs Cambridge United have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 29%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (71%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Lincoln's attack rating (0.84) and Cambridge United's defence rating (1.08), the model arrives at 1.20 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Cambridge United's attack versus Lincoln's defence, projects 0.70 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Lincoln's last 83 games and Cambridge United's last 82 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 16.7%. Close behind: 1-0 (16.4%), 1-1 (14.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 47% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lincoln Win
48%
2.08
30%
3.28
22%
4.65
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
18.0%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
15.0%
Draw
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.20
Lincoln xG
Total xG
1.89
0.70
Cambridge United xG
2.08
48%
Home win
3.28
30%
Draw
4.65
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
56%
Over 1.5
1.79
44%
Under 1.5
2.27
29%
Over 2.5
3.45
71%
Under 2.5
1.41
12%
Over 3.5
8.33
88%
Under 3.5
1.14
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
35%
BTTS Yes
2.85
65%
BTTS No
1.54
Clean Sheet
50%
2.01
30%
3.31
Win to Nil
24%
4.17
6%
15.41
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15.0 | 10.5 | 3.6 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 18.0 | 12.5 | 4.4 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 10.8 | 7.5 | 2.6 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 4.3 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Lincoln vs Cambridge United Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Lincoln vs Cambridge United?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.7%.
How many goals are Lincoln and Cambridge United expected to score?
The model projects 1.20 expected goals for Lincoln and 0.70 for Cambridge United, a combined total of 1.89.
How confident is the prediction model for Lincoln vs Cambridge United?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Lincoln come into this having played 82 games, going 28W 32D 22L for 1.41 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-D-W.
On the other side, Cambridge United sit at 1.04 PPG from 82 outings (23W 16D 43L), a run that reads L-L-L-L-D across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Lincoln on 1.41 PPG, Cambridge United on 1.04. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Lincoln's home form reads 14W 20D 6L across their last 40 home games, a 1.55 PPG return.
Away from home, Cambridge United have taken 0.70 points per game from their last 40 away games (7W 7D 26L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Lincoln come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Lincoln are averaging 1.11 goals scored and 0.96 conceded per game recently; Cambridge United are on 0.89 scored and 1.38 conceded.
Defensively: Lincoln have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 82 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lincoln
Current Season
Cambridge United
Current Season
Lincoln (Home) vs Cambridge United (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Lincoln
Current Season
Cambridge United
Current Season
❓ Lincoln vs Cambridge United Form FAQs
What form are Lincoln and Cambridge United in coming into this match?
Lincoln have gone 28W 32D 22L in their last 82 games (1.41 PPG), while Cambridge United have gone 23W 16D 43L in their last 82 (1.04 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lincoln at home or Cambridge United away?
Lincoln's home record (1.55 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lincoln at home: 1.55 PPG; Cambridge United away: 0.70 PPG.
Have Lincoln or Cambridge United been keeping clean sheets recently?
Lincoln have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, Cambridge United in 26%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 8 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 3 years from September 2021. All of them came in League One. The most recent in our data was on 8 February 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 12 Mar 2024, when Lincoln won Lincoln 6-0 Cambridge United.
Lincoln's record when hosting Cambridge United specifically: 1W 2D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Lincoln
2
Draws
2
Cambridge United
Recent Meetings
❓ Lincoln vs Cambridge United H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Lincoln and Cambridge United?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, Lincoln have won 4, Cambridge United have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Lincoln and Cambridge United last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 8 February 2025: Lincoln 1-1 Cambridge United.
Who has won more matches between Lincoln and Cambridge United?
Lincoln have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Lincoln see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 38% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 57% of those situations.
Cambridge United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lincoln 42%, Cambridge United 45% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 28% (Lincoln) and 50% (Cambridge United).
On the defensive side: Lincoln keep a clean sheet in 45% of their matches; Lincoln have failed to score in 32% of games; Cambridge United in 48%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lincoln home games / Cambridge United away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Lincoln vs Cambridge United Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Lincoln and Cambridge United matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Lincoln's recent matches and 45% of Cambridge United's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Lincoln and Cambridge United matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 28% of Lincoln's recent games and 50% of Cambridge United's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Lincoln and Cambridge United matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 58% of Lincoln's recent matches and 68% of Cambridge United's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Lincoln run riot with a 6-0 hammering of Cambridge United.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lincoln beat Cambridge United 6-0 at LNER Stadium, Regular Season - 38, in the League One. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lincoln 1.20 xG and Cambridge United 0.70 xG, a combined 1.89. The scoreboard read 6-0 for 6 actual goals. Lincoln beat their projection by 4.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lincoln attack 0.84 / defence 0.67 against Cambridge United attack 0.84 / defence 1.08, drawn from 83/82 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lincoln 48% | Draw 30% | Cambridge United 22%, with Lincoln to win its most likely call at 48%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 29%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 56% and landed. Over 3.5 was 12% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 35% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 37% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lincoln 32%, Cambridge United 43%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lincoln's trading profile (82 games, 40 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and duly kept one.
Cambridge United's trading profile (82 games, 40 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 42% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Lincoln 1.41 PPG, Cambridge United 1.04 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Lincoln win broke the near-deadlock. Lincoln (home/away splits) scored 6 against a 1.10 average — above their attacking norm. Cambridge United (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.80 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 6 against a 1.68 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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