Lincoln 0-1 Burton Albion – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Lincoln at 43% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Lincoln face Burton Albion.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Lincoln host Burton Albion at LNER Stadium in League One (matchday 33). Kick-off is Saturday 22 February 2025 at 15:00 UK time.
Form Guide
Lincoln — last 10 games: 3W 3D 4L, averaging 1.20 points per game. Last five: L D D L W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
At home, Lincoln have gone 4W 3D 3L in their last 10 home games (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
Across their last 10 games, Burton Albion have recorded 4W 4D 2L — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W D D L W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.30. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling, Burton Albion have posted 3W 4D 3L from their last 10 away outings — 1.30 PPG. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Lincoln 1.20 PPG, Burton Albion 1.60 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
The H2H picture is flat: the 7 H2H matches we hold have produced 3 wins for Lincoln, 4 for Burton Albion and 0 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
The 7 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 10 Aug 2024, ended Lincoln 3–2 Burton Albion — a Lincoln win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Lincoln in-play and half-time data (last 78 games, 38 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 63% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; of the 23 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 30%; of the 18 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games).
Burton Albion in-play and half-time data (last 78 games, 38 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 66% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; of the 20 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 40%; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lincoln 46% versus Burton Albion 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lincoln 42% | Burton Albion 47%). Note also that Burton Albion surrender HT leads in 40% of cases while Lincoln recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 33% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lincoln 1.22 xG and Burton Albion 0.90 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lincoln attack 1.005 / defence 0.957 | Burton Albion attack 0.788 / defence 0.944. League average goals — home 1.282 / away 1.190. Burton Albion's attack rating of 0.788 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.90. Data: built from Lincoln's last 78 games and Burton Albion's last 78.
Result probabilities: Lincoln 43% | Draw 30% | Burton Albion 27%. Fair-value odds: Lincoln 2.33 | Draw 3.30 | Burton Albion 3.74. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS Yes probability 42% | Total xG 2.11. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.11 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 58% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Lincoln at 43% — marginal model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Lincoln offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.11 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 65% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Lincoln's last 10 home games and Burton Albion's last 10 away games) averaging 2.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 58%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Lincoln 50% (last 10 home games) | Burton Albion 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lincoln vs Burton Albion | Competition: League One, matchday 33 | Venue: LNER Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 22 February 2025 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lincoln 43% | Draw 30% | Burton Albion 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% (Under 65%) | BTTS Yes 42% (No 58%) | xG Lincoln 1.22 / Burton Albion 0.90 • Poisson strength factors: Lincoln attack 1.005 / def 0.957 | Burton Albion attack 0.788 / def 0.944 | league avg home 1.282 / away 1.190 • Poisson stance: Lincoln (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.22
Lincoln xG
Expected Goals
0.90
Burton Albion xG
42%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Lincoln vs Burton Albion FAQs
What time does Lincoln vs Burton Albion kick off?
Lincoln vs Burton Albion kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Saturday 22 February 2025 at LNER Stadium.
What was the final score in Lincoln vs Burton Albion?
Lincoln 0 - 1 Burton Albion.
Where is Lincoln vs Burton Albion being played?
The match is being played at LNER Stadium.
What competition is Lincoln vs Burton Albion part of?
Lincoln vs Burton Albion is a League One fixture (matchday 33) (England).
Who is favourite to win Lincoln vs Burton Albion?
Our statistical model gives Lincoln a 43% chance of winning, Burton Albion a 27% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Lincoln the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lincoln vs Burton Albion?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Lincoln and Burton Albion will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (58%).
Will Lincoln vs Burton Albion have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (65%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Lincoln's attack at 1.00x the league average against Burton Albion's defence at 0.94x — combine the two and it projects 1.22 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Burton Albion's attack versus Lincoln's defence, projects 0.90 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Lincoln's last 78 games and Burton Albion's last 78 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (13.8%), 1-0 (13.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lincoln Win
43%
2.33
30%
3.30
27%
3.74
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
0 – 0
12.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.22
Lincoln xG
Total xG
2.11
0.90
Burton Albion xG
2.33
43%
Home win
3.30
30%
Draw
3.74
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.37
58%
BTTS No
1.73
Clean Sheet
41%
2.45
30%
3.37
Win to Nil
18%
5.70
8%
12.60
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.1 | 10.9 | 4.9 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.7 | 13.2 | 5.9 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.9 | 8.0 | 3.6 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.6 | 3.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Lincoln vs Burton Albion Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Lincoln vs Burton Albion?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Lincoln and Burton Albion expected to score?
The model projects 1.22 expected goals for Lincoln and 0.90 for Burton Albion, a combined total of 2.11.
How confident is the prediction model for Lincoln vs Burton Albion?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Lincoln's recent record stands at 31W 24D 23L from 78 games, a 1.50 PPG return, with L-D-D-L-W in the last five.
Burton Albion, meanwhile, have gone 18W 21D 39L across 78 games — 0.96 PPG, with W-D-D-L-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Lincoln by 0.54 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Burton Albion heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Lincoln have managed 16W 11D 11L from their last 38 home games — 1.55 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Burton Albion's away record stands at 8W 13D 17L across their last 38 away games, a 0.97 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Lincoln come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Lincoln are averaging 1.36 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Burton Albion are on 0.92 scored and 1.47 conceded.
Defensively: Lincoln have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 78 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lincoln
Current Season
Burton Albion
Current Season
Lincoln (Home) vs Burton Albion (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Lincoln
Current Season
Burton Albion
Current Season
❓ Lincoln vs Burton Albion Form FAQs
What form are Lincoln and Burton Albion in coming into this match?
Lincoln have gone 31W 24D 23L in their last 78 games (1.50 PPG), while Burton Albion have gone 18W 21D 39L in their last 78 (0.96 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lincoln at home or Burton Albion away?
Lincoln's home record (1.55 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lincoln at home: 1.55 PPG; Burton Albion away: 0.97 PPG.
Have Lincoln or Burton Albion been keeping clean sheets recently?
Lincoln have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Burton Albion in 22%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to September 2021. All of them came in League One. The most recent was on 22 January 2026, roughly 9 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Lincoln have won the most recent 2 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 26 Dec 2022, when Burton Albion won Burton Albion 3-0 Lincoln.
Lincoln's record when hosting Burton Albion specifically: 1W 0D 4L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Lincoln
0
Draws
5
Burton Albion
Recent Meetings
❓ Lincoln vs Burton Albion H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Lincoln and Burton Albion?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Lincoln have won 5, Burton Albion have won 5, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Lincoln and Burton Albion last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 22 January 2026: Lincoln 2-1 Burton Albion.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Lincoln are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 38% of those situations.
Burton Albion are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lincoln 45%, Burton Albion 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Lincoln) and 47% (Burton Albion).
On the defensive side: Lincoln keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Lincoln have failed to score in 32% of games; Burton Albion in 45%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lincoln home games / Burton Albion away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Lincoln vs Burton Albion Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Lincoln and Burton Albion matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 45% of Lincoln's recent matches and 47% of Burton Albion's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Lincoln and Burton Albion matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Lincoln's recent games and 47% of Burton Albion's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Lincoln and Burton Albion matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 63% of Lincoln's recent matches and 66% of Burton Albion's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Burton Albion defy the odds to beat Lincoln 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Burton Albion beat Lincoln 0-1 at LNER Stadium, Regular Season - 33, in the League One. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lincoln 1.22 xG and Burton Albion 0.90 xG, a combined 2.11. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Lincoln fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lincoln attack 1.00 / defence 0.96 against Burton Albion attack 0.79 / defence 0.94, drawn from 78/78 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lincoln 43% | Draw 30% | Burton Albion 27%, with Lincoln to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual Burton Albion win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 63% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lincoln 42%, Burton Albion 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lincoln's trading profile (78 games, 38 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Burton Albion's trading profile (78 games, 38 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Lincoln arrived the stronger side — 1.50 PPG against 0.96. Form was overturned, with Burton Albion winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Lincoln (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.53 scoring average — below par going forward. Burton Albion (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.42 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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