Lincoln 0-1 Accrington ST – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Lincoln at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Lincoln vs Accrington ST fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a League One clash, Regular Season - 20 as Lincoln welcome Accrington ST to LNER Stadium. Kick-off is set for Saturday 27 November 2021 at 15:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all League One games this season, Lincoln have gone 3W 4D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: D W D D L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Lincoln, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Lincoln at LNER Stadium this season: 2W 3D 4L from 9 home games — 1.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.89 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 56% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Accrington ST stand at 2W 3D 5L from 10 League One matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: D D L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 2.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.50 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Accrington ST, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Accrington ST's form when playing away from home: 2W 2D 6L across 10 road games this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Lincoln 1.30 PPG, Accrington ST 0.90 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
In-Play Data
Lincoln trading profile (18 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
Accrington ST trading profile (18 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Lincoln 61% and Accrington ST 61% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lincoln 44% | Accrington ST 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lincoln 1.35 xG and Accrington ST 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lincoln attack 0.732 / defence 1.228 | Accrington ST attack 0.710 / defence 1.576. League average goals — home 1.168 / away 1.324. Lincoln's attack strength of 0.732 is below the league average — the 1.35 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Accrington ST bring a strong defensive rating of 1.576 — this is suppressing Lincoln's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 18 Lincoln games / 18 Accrington ST games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lincoln 41% | Draw 27% | Accrington ST 32%. Fair-value odds: Lincoln 2.44 | Draw 3.70 | Accrington ST 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.50. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.50 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Lincoln at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Lincoln offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.50 combined xG gives a 46% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Lincoln 56% | Accrington ST 50%.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lincoln vs Accrington ST | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: LNER Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 27 Nov 2021, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lincoln 41% | Draw 27% | Accrington ST 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 51% | xG Lincoln 1.35 / Accrington ST 1.15 • Poisson strength factors: Lincoln attack 0.732 / def 1.228 | Accrington ST attack 0.710 / def 1.576 | league avg home 1.168 / away 1.324 • Poisson stance: Lincoln (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.35
Lincoln xG
Expected Goals
1.15
Accrington ST xG
51%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lincoln vs Accrington ST kick off?
Lincoln vs Accrington ST kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 27 November 2021 at LNER Stadium.
What was the final score in Lincoln vs Accrington ST?
Lincoln 0 - 1 Accrington ST.
Where is Lincoln vs Accrington ST being played?
The match is being played at LNER Stadium.
What competition is Lincoln vs Accrington ST part of?
Lincoln vs Accrington ST is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Lincoln vs Accrington ST?
Our statistical model gives Lincoln a 41% chance of winning, Accrington ST a 32% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Lincoln the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lincoln vs Accrington ST?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Lincoln and Accrington ST will score (BTTS).
Will Lincoln vs Accrington ST have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lincoln and Accrington ST?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Lincoln and Accrington ST in?
Lincoln (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-W-D-D-L. Accrington ST (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 2.50 | L5 D-D-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Lincoln's attack rating (0.73) and Accrington ST's defence rating (1.58), the model arrives at 1.35 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Accrington ST's attack versus Lincoln's defence, projects 1.15 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 18/18 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.4%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.9%), 1-0 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lincoln Win
41%
2.43
27%
3.71
32%
3.13
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.0%
Home win
0 – 1
9.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.35
Lincoln xG
Total xG
2.50
1.15
Accrington ST xG
2.43
41%
Home win
3.71
27%
Draw
3.13
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.97
49%
BTTS No
2.03
Clean Sheet
32%
3.17
26%
3.84
Win to Nil
13%
7.72
8%
12.03
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.2 | 9.5 | 5.5 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.0 | 12.8 | 7.4 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 8.6 | 5.0 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 3.8 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lincoln vs Accrington ST?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Lincoln and Accrington ST expected to score?
The model projects 1.35 expected goals for Lincoln and 1.15 for Accrington ST, a combined total of 2.50.
How confident is the prediction model for Lincoln vs Accrington ST?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Lincoln come into this having played 18 games, going 5W 6D 7L for 1.17 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-D-D-L. The sample for Lincoln is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Accrington ST sit at 1.17 PPG from 18 outings (6W 3D 9L), a run that reads D-D-L-L-L across their last five. The sample for Accrington ST is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Lincoln on 1.17 PPG, Accrington ST on 1.17. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Lincoln's home form reads 2W 3D 4L across 9 games on their own ground, a 1.00 PPG return.
Away from home, Accrington ST have taken 0.89 points per game from 9 outings (2W 2D 5L).
The Goals Picture
Lincoln are averaging 1.11 goals scored and 1.28 conceded per game recently; Accrington ST are on 1.22 scored and 2.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Lincoln have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games; Accrington ST in 61%.
Last 18 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lincoln
Blended
Accrington ST
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lincoln and Accrington ST in coming into this match?
Lincoln have gone 5W 6D 7L in their last 18 games (1.17 PPG), while Accrington ST have gone 6W 3D 9L in their last 18 (1.17 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lincoln at home or Accrington ST away?
Lincoln's home record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lincoln at home: 1.00 PPG; Accrington ST away: 0.89 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Lincoln and Accrington ST runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. It has been a while since the last meeting — 4 February 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 4 Feb 2023, when Lincoln won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Lincoln's record when hosting Accrington ST specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Lincoln
1
Draws
2
Accrington ST
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lincoln and Accrington ST?
From 4 meetings on record, Lincoln have won 1, Accrington ST have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Lincoln and Accrington ST last play each other?
They last met on 4 February 2023, when Accrington ST 0-3 Lincoln.
Who has won more matches between Lincoln and Accrington ST?
Accrington ST have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Lincoln are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Accrington ST are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lincoln 56%, Accrington ST 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Lincoln) and 56% (Accrington ST).
On the defensive side: Lincoln have failed to score in 44% of games; Accrington ST in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lincoln home games / Accrington ST away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lincoln play Accrington ST?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of Lincoln's recent matches and 44% of Accrington ST's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Lincoln vs Accrington ST usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Lincoln's recent games and 56% of Accrington ST's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Lincoln and Accrington ST tend to score early?
Lincoln have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Accrington ST in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Accrington ST defy the odds to beat Lincoln 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Accrington ST beat Lincoln 0-1 at LNER Stadium, Regular Season - 20, in the League One. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lincoln 1.35 xG and Accrington ST 1.15 xG, a combined 2.50. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Lincoln fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lincoln attack 0.73 / defence 1.23 against Accrington ST attack 0.71 / defence 1.58, drawn from 18/18 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lincoln 41% | Draw 27% | Accrington ST 32%, with Lincoln to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual Accrington ST win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 71% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lincoln 44%, Accrington ST 67%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lincoln's trading profile (18 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 39% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Accrington ST's trading profile (18 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Lincoln 1.17 PPG, Accrington ST 1.17 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Accrington ST win broke the near-deadlock. Lincoln (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.89 scoring average — below par going forward. Accrington ST (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.11 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.