Leyton Orient 1-2 Charlton – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Leyton Orient at 50% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Leyton Orient face Charlton.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Charlton make the trip to Gaughan Group Stadium to face Leyton Orient in League One (matchday 34). The match kicks off on Saturday 1 March 2025 at 15:00 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Leyton Orient have collected 1.90 PPG across their last 10 games: 6W 1D 3L. Last five: W W W L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
At home, Leyton Orient have gone 7W 1D 2L in their last 10 home games (2.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 7 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. At home, both teams have scored in only 10% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Charlton (all games): 6W 2D 2L across their last 10 — 2.00 points per game. Last five: D W W L W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 0.90. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
On the road, Charlton have gone 3W 3D 4L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.90 for Leyton Orient, 2.00 for Charlton — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated the 3 H2H matches in our data: 1 wins for Leyton Orient, 2 for Charlton and 0 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
Scoring has been limited in the 3 H2H matches in our data, averaging 1.0 goals per game, which makes Under 2.5 the head-to-head-backed angle in the goals market. The most recent of those, on 17 Aug 2024, ended Leyton Orient 0–1 Charlton — a Charlton win.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
Leyton Orient goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 78 games, 38 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 37% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Charlton goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 78 games, 38 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 60% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; of the 18 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 39%; of the 22 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 46%; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Leyton Orient 40% versus Charlton 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Leyton Orient 49% | Charlton 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Leyton Orient 1.47 xG and Charlton 0.92 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Leyton Orient attack 1.117 / defence 0.723 | Charlton attack 1.096 / defence 1.025. League average goals — home 1.281 / away 1.158. Leyton Orient have a tight defence (rating 0.723), which is pulling Charlton's projected output down. Data: built from Leyton Orient's last 79 games and Charlton's last 78.
Result probabilities: Leyton Orient 50% | Draw 27% | Charlton 23%. Fair-value odds: Leyton Orient 2.01 | Draw 3.73 | Charlton 4.27. Leyton Orient hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS Yes probability 46% | Total xG 2.38. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.38 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 54% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Leyton Orient at 50% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Leyton Orient if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.38 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 57% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by the H2H data averaging 1.0 goals per game across 3 H2H matches.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on No. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Leyton Orient 10% (last 10 home games) | Charlton 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Leyton Orient vs Charlton | Competition: League One, matchday 34 | Venue: Gaughan Group Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 1 March 2025 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Leyton Orient 50% | Draw 27% | Charlton 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% (Under 57%) | BTTS Yes 46% (No 54%) | xG Leyton Orient 1.47 / Charlton 0.92 • Poisson strength factors: Leyton Orient attack 1.117 / def 0.723 | Charlton attack 1.096 / def 1.025 | league avg home 1.281 / away 1.158 • Poisson stance: Leyton Orient (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.47
Leyton Orient xG
Expected Goals
0.92
Charlton xG
46%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Leyton Orient vs Charlton FAQs
What time does Leyton Orient vs Charlton kick off?
Leyton Orient vs Charlton kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Saturday 1 March 2025 at Gaughan Group Stadium.
What was the final score in Leyton Orient vs Charlton?
Leyton Orient 1 - 2 Charlton.
Where is Leyton Orient vs Charlton being played?
The match is being played at Gaughan Group Stadium.
What competition is Leyton Orient vs Charlton part of?
Leyton Orient vs Charlton is a League One fixture (matchday 34) (England).
Who is favourite to win Leyton Orient vs Charlton?
Our statistical model gives Leyton Orient a 50% chance of winning, Charlton a 23% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Leyton Orient the favourite.
Will both teams score in Leyton Orient vs Charlton?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Leyton Orient and Charlton will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (54%).
Will Leyton Orient vs Charlton have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (57%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Leyton Orient's attack rating (1.12) and Charlton's defence rating (1.02), the model arrives at 1.47 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Charlton's attack (1.10x) against Leyton Orient's defence (0.72x) — and the away total comes out at 0.92.
These ratings are built from Leyton Orient's last 79 games and Charlton's last 78 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.0%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.9%), 0-0 (10.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Leyton Orient Win
50%
2.01
27%
3.73
23%
4.27
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
2 – 0
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.47
Leyton Orient xG
Total xG
2.38
0.92
Charlton xG
2.01
50%
Home win
3.73
27%
Draw
4.27
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.16
54%
BTTS No
1.87
Clean Sheet
40%
2.50
23%
4.33
Win to Nil
20%
5.03
5%
18.50
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.2 | 8.5 | 3.9 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.5 | 12.4 | 5.7 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.9 | 9.1 | 4.2 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.8 | 4.4 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.8 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Leyton Orient vs Charlton Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Leyton Orient vs Charlton?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Leyton Orient and Charlton expected to score?
The model projects 1.47 expected goals for Leyton Orient and 0.92 for Charlton, a combined total of 2.38.
How confident is the prediction model for Leyton Orient vs Charlton?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Leyton Orient's recent record stands at 34W 16D 28L from 78 games, a 1.51 PPG return, with W-W-W-L-L in the last five.
Charlton, meanwhile, have gone 26W 28D 24L across 78 games — 1.36 PPG, with D-W-W-L-W in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.51 PPG for Leyton Orient against 1.36 for Charlton. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Leyton Orient have managed 17W 8D 13L from their last 38 home games — 1.55 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Charlton's away record stands at 8W 15D 15L across their last 38 away games, a 1.03 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Leyton Orient come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Leyton Orient are averaging 1.31 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game recently; Charlton are on 1.37 scored and 1.22 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Charlton in 62%.
Defensively: Leyton Orient have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 78 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Leyton Orient
Current Season
Charlton
Current Season
Leyton Orient (Home) vs Charlton (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Leyton Orient
Current Season
Charlton
Current Season
❓ Leyton Orient vs Charlton Form FAQs
What form are Leyton Orient and Charlton in coming into this match?
Leyton Orient have gone 34W 16D 28L in their last 78 games (1.51 PPG), while Charlton have gone 26W 28D 24L in their last 78 (1.36 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Leyton Orient at home or Charlton away?
Leyton Orient's home record (1.55 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Leyton Orient at home: 1.55 PPG; Charlton away: 1.03 PPG.
Have Leyton Orient or Charlton been keeping clean sheets recently?
Leyton Orient have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, Charlton in 24%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 5 H2H matches between Leyton Orient and Charlton, the earliest from August 2023. All of them came in League One. The most recent in our data was on 25 May 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear recent trend here: Charlton have taken the most recent 3 H2H results in our data.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Leyton Orient have gone 1W 0D 1L from the 2 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Charlton — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 5 Meetings
1
Leyton Orient
0
Draws
4
Charlton
Recent Meetings
❓ Leyton Orient vs Charlton H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Leyton Orient and Charlton?
Across the 5 head-to-head matches in our data, Leyton Orient have won 1, Charlton have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Leyton Orient and Charlton last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 25 May 2025: Charlton 1-0 Leyton Orient.
Who has won more matches between Leyton Orient and Charlton?
Charlton have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 5 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Leyton Orient are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 34% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 23% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Charlton are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 46% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Leyton Orient 37%, Charlton 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Leyton Orient) and 42% (Charlton).
On the defensive side: Leyton Orient keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches; Leyton Orient have failed to score in 32% of games; Charlton in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Leyton Orient home games / Charlton away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Leyton Orient vs Charlton Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Leyton Orient and Charlton matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 37% of Leyton Orient's recent matches and 60% of Charlton's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Leyton Orient and Charlton matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Leyton Orient's recent games and 42% of Charlton's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Leyton Orient and Charlton matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 71% of Leyton Orient's recent matches and 60% of Charlton's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Charlton defy the odds to beat Leyton Orient 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Charlton beat Leyton Orient 1-2 at Gaughan Group Stadium, Regular Season - 34, in the League One. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Leyton Orient 1.47 xG and Charlton 0.92 xG, a combined 2.38. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Charlton outscored their 0.92 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Leyton Orient attack 1.12 / defence 0.72 against Charlton attack 1.10 / defence 1.02, drawn from 79/78 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Leyton Orient 50% | Draw 27% | Charlton 23%, with Leyton Orient to win its most likely call at 50%. Instead the game produced a Charlton win, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Leyton Orient 49%, Charlton 49%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Leyton Orient's trading profile (78 games, 38 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Charlton's trading profile (78 games, 38 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Leyton Orient 1.51 PPG, Charlton 1.36 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Charlton win broke the near-deadlock. Leyton Orient (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.03 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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