Leyton Orient 1-2 Burton Albion – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Leyton Orient at 44% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Leyton Orient vs Burton Albion encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a League One clash, Regular Season - 34 as Leyton Orient welcome Burton Albion to Gaughan Group Stadium. Kick-off is set for Saturday 17 February 2024 at 15:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all League One games this season, Leyton Orient have gone 7W 2D 1L from 10 outings — a 2.30 PPG return. Last five: D W W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 0.80 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
Leyton Orient's form when playing at home: 4W 3D 3L across 10 games at Gaughan Group Stadium this term (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.50 lags behind their overall 2.30 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Gaughan Group Stadium this season.
Burton Albion — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 League One fixtures this season — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L W D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Burton Albion's away record: 2W 2D 6L from 10 road trips in League One this season (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Leyton Orient are in the better shape of the two on current League One data — 0.80 PPG ahead (2.30 vs 1.50). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Leyton Orient, 0 for Burton Albion and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 0.0 per contest from 1 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 28 Oct 2023, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Leyton Orient trading profile (77 games, 37 at home): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 32% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
Burton Albion trading profile (77 games, 37 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 49% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 51% of games (away games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Leyton Orient 40% versus Burton Albion 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Leyton Orient 35% | Burton Albion 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Leyton Orient 1.41 xG and Burton Albion 1.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Leyton Orient attack 0.973 / defence 1.196 | Burton Albion attack 0.766 / defence 1.075. League average goals — home 1.344 / away 1.193. Data: 32 Leyton Orient games / 77 Burton Albion games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Leyton Orient 44% | Draw 27% | Burton Albion 29%. Fair-value odds: Leyton Orient 2.27 | Draw 3.70 | Burton Albion 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.50. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.50 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Leyton Orient as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Leyton Orient offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.50 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 46% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 50%. Form rates are neutral: Leyton Orient 50% | Burton Albion 40%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Leyton Orient vs Burton Albion | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 34 | Venue: Gaughan Group Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 17 Feb 2024, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Leyton Orient 44% | Draw 27% | Burton Albion 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 50% | xG Leyton Orient 1.41 / Burton Albion 1.09 • Poisson strength factors: Leyton Orient attack 0.973 / def 1.196 | Burton Albion attack 0.766 / def 1.075 | league avg home 1.344 / away 1.193 • Poisson stance: Leyton Orient (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.41
Leyton Orient xG
Expected Goals
1.09
Burton Albion xG
50%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Leyton Orient vs Burton Albion kick off?
Leyton Orient vs Burton Albion kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 17 February 2024 at Gaughan Group Stadium.
What was the final score in Leyton Orient vs Burton Albion?
Leyton Orient 1 - 2 Burton Albion.
Where is Leyton Orient vs Burton Albion being played?
The match is being played at Gaughan Group Stadium.
What competition is Leyton Orient vs Burton Albion part of?
Leyton Orient vs Burton Albion is a Regular Season - 34 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Leyton Orient vs Burton Albion?
Our statistical model gives Leyton Orient a 44% chance of winning, Burton Albion a 29% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Leyton Orient the favourite.
Will both teams score in Leyton Orient vs Burton Albion?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Leyton Orient and Burton Albion will score (BTTS).
Will Leyton Orient vs Burton Albion have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Leyton Orient and Burton Albion?
Record (1 meetings): Leyton Orient 0W | Draws 1 | Burton Albion 0W.
What form are Leyton Orient and Burton Albion in?
Leyton Orient (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-W-W-L-W. Burton Albion (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.80 | L5 L-W-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Leyton Orient's attacking strength (0.97x league average) is weighed against Burton Albion's defensive record (1.07x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.41. The same calculation in reverse, Burton Albion's attack versus Leyton Orient's defence, projects 1.09 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 32/77 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.3%. Close behind: 1-0 (9.9%), 0-0 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Leyton Orient Win
44%
2.27
27%
3.76
29%
3.42
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.6%
Home win
0 – 1
9.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.41
Leyton Orient xG
Total xG
2.50
1.09
Burton Albion xG
2.27
44%
Home win
3.76
27%
Draw
3.42
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.99
50%
BTTS No
2.01
Clean Sheet
34%
2.98
25%
4.08
Win to Nil
15%
6.76
7%
13.94
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.2 | 9.0 | 4.9 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.6 | 12.6 | 6.9 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.1 | 8.9 | 4.9 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.8 | 4.2 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Leyton Orient vs Burton Albion?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Leyton Orient and Burton Albion expected to score?
The model projects 1.41 expected goals for Leyton Orient and 1.09 for Burton Albion, a combined total of 2.50.
How confident is the prediction model for Leyton Orient vs Burton Albion?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Leyton Orient come into this having played 77 games, going 38W 22D 17L for 1.77 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-W-L-W.
On the other side, Burton Albion sit at 1.18 PPG from 77 outings (24W 19D 34L), a run that reads L-W-D-L-W across their last five.
Leyton Orient carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.59 PPG clear of Burton Albion — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Leyton Orient's home form reads 21W 9D 7L across 37 games on their own ground, a 1.95 PPG return.
Away from home, Burton Albion have taken 0.92 points per game from 37 outings (9W 7D 21L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Leyton Orient come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Leyton Orient are averaging 1.27 goals scored and 0.95 conceded per game recently; Burton Albion are on 1.09 scored and 1.55 conceded.
Defensively: Leyton Orient have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 77 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Leyton Orient
Current Season
Burton Albion
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Leyton Orient and Burton Albion in coming into this match?
Leyton Orient have gone 38W 22D 17L in their last 77 games (1.77 PPG), while Burton Albion have gone 24W 19D 34L in their last 77 (1.18 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Leyton Orient at home or Burton Albion away?
Leyton Orient's home record (1.95 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Leyton Orient at home: 1.95 PPG; Burton Albion away: 0.92 PPG.
Have Leyton Orient or Burton Albion been keeping clean sheets recently?
Leyton Orient have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their recent games, Burton Albion in 23%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. They last met on 2 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 29 Nov 2025, when Leyton Orient won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Leyton Orient's record when hosting Burton Albion specifically: 0W 2D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Leyton Orient
3
Draws
2
Burton Albion
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Leyton Orient and Burton Albion?
From 6 meetings on record, Leyton Orient have won 1, Burton Albion have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Leyton Orient and Burton Albion last play each other?
They last met on 2 May 2026, when Leyton Orient 2-2 Burton Albion.
Who has won more matches between Leyton Orient and Burton Albion?
Burton Albion have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Leyton Orient see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Burton Albion see a goal before the break in 60% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Leyton Orient 32%, Burton Albion 49% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Leyton Orient) and 51% (Burton Albion).
On the defensive side: Leyton Orient keep a clean sheet in 54% of their matches; Burton Albion in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Leyton Orient home games / Burton Albion away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Leyton Orient play Burton Albion?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 32% of Leyton Orient's recent matches and 49% of Burton Albion's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Leyton Orient vs Burton Albion usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Leyton Orient's recent games and 51% of Burton Albion's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Shock result as Burton Albion defy the odds to beat Leyton Orient 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Burton Albion beat Leyton Orient 1-2 at Gaughan Group Stadium, Regular Season - 34, in the League One. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Leyton Orient 1.41 xG and Burton Albion 1.09 xG, a combined 2.50. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Burton Albion outscored their 1.09 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Leyton Orient attack 0.97 / defence 1.20 against Burton Albion attack 0.77 / defence 1.07, drawn from 32/77 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Leyton Orient 44% | Draw 27% | Burton Albion 29%, with Leyton Orient to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual Burton Albion win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Leyton Orient 35%, Burton Albion 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Leyton Orient's trading profile (77 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here.
Burton Albion's trading profile (77 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Leyton Orient arrived the stronger side — 1.77 PPG against 1.18. Form was overturned, with Burton Albion winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Leyton Orient (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.95 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Burton Albion (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.97 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.