Leicester vs Bradford – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Bradford at 50%, yet other data sources diverge — this Leicester vs Bradford fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A League One encounter, Regular Season - 15 sees Bradford travel to King Power Stadium to take on Leicester. The game is scheduled for Saturday 14 November 2026, 15:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Leicester stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 League One matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L W D L W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Leicester, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Leicester's home record at King Power Stadium: 2W 3D 5L from 10 League One appearances (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.90 lags behind their overall 1.50 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at King Power Stadium this season.
Bradford — All Games: 6W 2D 2L from 10 League One fixtures this season — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W W D D W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 0.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.50 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Bradford, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Bradford have gone 5W 2D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Bradford — 0.50 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.00 vs 1.50). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
In-Play Profile
Leicester in-play tendencies (55 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games).
Bradford in-play tendencies (55 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Leicester 71% and Bradford 49% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Leicester 54% | Bradford 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Leicester 0.88 xG and Bradford 1.48 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Leicester attack 0.867 / defence 1.349 | Bradford attack 0.843 / defence 0.733. League average goals — home 1.377 / away 1.302. Bradford's defence strength of 0.733 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 9 Leicester games / 56 Bradford games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Leicester 21% | Draw 28% | Bradford 50%. Fair-value odds: Leicester 4.76 | Draw 3.57 | Bradford 2.00. Bradford hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.36. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.36 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Bradford as the most likely outcome at 50% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Bradford offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.36 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 42% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 46%. This conflicts with form data: Leicester 70% | Bradford 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Leicester vs Bradford | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: King Power Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 14 Nov 2026, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Leicester 21% | Draw 28% | Bradford 50% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 46% | xG Leicester 0.88 / Bradford 1.48 • Poisson strength factors: Leicester attack 0.867 / def 1.349 | Bradford attack 0.843 / def 0.733 | league avg home 1.377 / away 1.302 • Poisson stance: Bradford (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.88
Leicester xG
Expected Goals
1.48
Bradford xG
46%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Leicester vs Bradford kick off?
Leicester vs Bradford is scheduled to kick off at 15:00 on Saturday 14 November 2026 at King Power Stadium.
Where is Leicester vs Bradford being played?
The match is being played at King Power Stadium.
What competition is Leicester vs Bradford part of?
Leicester vs Bradford is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Leicester vs Bradford?
Our statistical model gives Leicester a 21% chance of winning, Bradford a 50% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Bradford the favourite.
Will both teams score in Leicester vs Bradford?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Leicester and Bradford will score (BTTS).
Will Leicester vs Bradford have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Leicester and Bradford?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Leicester and Bradford in?
Leicester (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-D-L-W. Bradford (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.50 | L5 W-W-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Leicester's attack at 0.87x the league average against Bradford's defence at 0.73x — combine the two and it projects 0.88 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Bradford's attack versus Leicester's defence, projects 1.48 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 9/56 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (12.4%), 0-0 (11.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bradford Win
21%
4.71
28%
3.51
50%
1.99
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.0%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
0 – 2
10.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.88
Leicester xG
Total xG
2.36
1.48
Bradford xG
4.71
21%
Home win
3.51
28%
Draw
1.99
50%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.17
54%
BTTS No
1.86
Clean Sheet
23%
4.40
42%
2.40
Win to Nil
5%
20.73
21%
4.77
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.5 | 14.0 | 10.4 | 5.1 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 8.3 | 12.3 | 9.1 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 3.6 | 5.4 | 4.0 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.1 | 1.6 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Leicester vs Bradford?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Leicester and Bradford expected to score?
The model projects 0.88 expected goals for Leicester and 1.48 for Bradford, a combined total of 2.36.
How confident is the prediction model for Leicester vs Bradford?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Leicester come into this having played 55 games, going 15W 19D 21L for 1.16 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-D-L-W. The sample for Leicester is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Bradford sit at 1.64 PPG from 55 outings (26W 12D 17L), a run that reads W-W-D-D-W across their last five. The sample for Bradford is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Bradford carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.48 PPG clear of Leicester — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Leicester's home form reads 9W 7D 12L across 28 games on their own ground, a 1.21 PPG return.
Away from home, Bradford have taken 1.29 points per game from 28 outings (10W 6D 12L).
The Goals Picture
Leicester are averaging 1.27 goals scored and 1.51 conceded per game recently; Bradford are on 1.16 scored and 1.02 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Leicester have seen both teams score in 71% of their recent games.
Defensively: Bradford in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 55 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Leicester
Blended
Bradford
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Leicester and Bradford in coming into this match?
Leicester have gone 15W 19D 21L in their last 55 games (1.16 PPG), while Bradford have gone 26W 12D 17L in their last 55 (1.64 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Leicester at home or Bradford away?
Bradford's away record (1.29 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Leicester at home: 1.21 PPG; Bradford away: 1.29 PPG.
Have Leicester or Bradford been keeping clean sheets recently?
Leicester have kept a clean sheet in 15% of their recent games, Bradford in 36%.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Leicester are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Bradford are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Leicester 68%, Bradford 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Leicester) and 54% (Bradford). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 29% and 18% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Leicester home games / Bradford away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Leicester play Bradford?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 68% of Leicester's games and 57% of Bradford's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Leicester vs Bradford usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 57% of Leicester's matches and 54% of Bradford's.
Do Leicester and Bradford tend to score early?
Leicester have had a goal before half-time in 86% of their recent matches, Bradford in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.